Archive for October, 2009
Western Pacific IR Satellite Loop (Tropical Storm 23W, developing Typhoon Mirinae)
For a more recent update on Typhoon Mirinae CLICK HERE
Tropical Storm 23W 1130Z 10.26.09 (Typhoon Mirinae)
While the Philippines escaped the wrath of Typhoon Lupit, Tropical Storm 23W is developing well east of the Philippines and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecast not only develops it into Typhoon Mirinae, but also makes the storm intensity 100 kts as it moves into the Philippines almost due east of Manila at 12Z on October 31. The ridge that had broken down enough to allow Lupit to scamper to the northeast, away from the Philippines has filled back in and is growing stronger. As we saw with Typhoon Lupit, with several days before projected landfall, there can be many changes to the environment and also the steering currents. So, this is not to be taken as Gospel. However, the reasoning is sound and the storm is already developing and moving faster than intially anticipated. The Philippines will certainly be on guard as any tropical cyclone activity in the region that remotely threatens the country needs to be taken seriously given the region will be slow to recover from the effects of Typhoon Parma and Tropical Storm Ketsana. Developing Tropical Storm 23W will be affecting Andersen Air Force Base, south of Saipan, by 00Z October 27.
Tropical Storm 23W Forecast Track (typhoon mirinae)
Posted in 1, Bob Symon, News, Opinion, Science, Tropical Cyclones, tropical weather, Tropics, Weather | Tagged: Asia, Asia weather, Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Manila weather, Philippines Typhoon, Philippines Weather, Tropical Storm 23W, Tropical Storm 23W forecast track, Tropical Storm 23W satellite, Tropical Storm 23w Satellite loop, Typhoon Mirinae, Typhoon Mirinae Forecast track, Typhoon Mirinae IR satellite loop, Typhoon Mirinae Satellite loop, Typhoons, Western Pacific IR Satellite | Leave a Comment »
1918 Spanish Flu Ward-Is History Repeating?
The CDC reports in week 41, 12000 specimens were tested and nearly 5000 came back positive. The number hospitalizations has risen from less than 500 to over 2500 in the past 7 weeks with a jump of about 67% in the past week alone. The number of weekly deaths has gone from just over 25 7 weeks ago to nearly 100 in the past week with a week 40 to week 41 jump of about 30%.
H1N1 Cases Increasing Rather Rapidly
President Obama has declared a National Emergency regarding the Swine Flu outbreak. This may come as a surprise to many Americans as it seems that we have been led to believe that the whole issue of the H1N1 “Swine Flu” was just a bunch of hype and its not that bad. The number of cases reported in the United States is relatively small but is rising pretty rapidly.
H1N1 Hospitalizations/Deaths Rising
Those number don’t sound like much but, according to the Department of Homeland Security, the Spanish Flu of the early 20th century was also an H1N1 strain. It is interesting because in the text, they also refer to the Spanish Flu as a swine flu. Is it the same thing? Is it like Michael Myers and come back again? It’s hard to say. I’ve seen some analysis reports claiming its not the same as the Spanish Flu. But, the CDC reported that the Swine Flu (H1N1) is now widespread in 46 states in the nation and that so far, 20,000 people have been hospitalized with over 1000 dead. The report does say that is pretty typical for the height of the flu season in the US but, it’s not the height of the flu season yet. That is typically expected between the end of November and early March. See, it’s that kind of thing that has me concerned. And the numbers provided are only for those cases tested. Let us hope that it is indeed just a little more difficult flu than typical and we don’t end up facing the same thing that the world faced 91 years ago.
Spanish Flu Death Chart 1918-1919
On This Date in History: In 1918, World War I (The Great War) was winding down. The Americans had gotten into the game and helped turn the tide against the Hun. About 15-20 Million people died in that global conflict. But, toward the end of the war, another killer was unleashed. What has been called the Spanish Flu Pandemic took about 50 million lives world wide according to the CDC with some estimates as high as 100 million. It got the moniker “Spanish Flu” because it reportedly took 8 million lives in that country in May 1918. However, the origin of the flu is a bit murky and it probably was not Spain. Indeed, researchers today are still trying to learn more about it. A couple of sources claim that it started at Fort Riley, Kansas when a soldier became sick just prior to his shipping out to Europe in March 1918. But, a more reliable source (Stanford University) claims that the virus probably became mutated in China into a strain that was resistant to any treatment. While one of the first cases in the US was the soldier who went to Europe from Fort Riley, Kansas it wasn’t until August 18, 1918 that the killer strain came to the shores of the new world. The Norwegian Liner Bergensfjord arrived in Brooklyn with a full load of passengers, including 100 who became ill on the voyage. Four of those had died and a fifth died after the ship docked making that pour sole the first US death from the Spanish Flu.
In 1918 Healthy Measures Encouraged for War Production Sake, not Public Heatlh
In the fall and spring, people in the US were dying daily. One day in Philadelphia, 528 people died and the bodies were collected by horse drawn carts. On “Black Thursday” in Chicago, nearly 400 died. Schools and theatres were closed and it was common to see people wearing face masks. On October 23, 1918, 815 people died from the flu in New York City. On This Date in 1918, 6000 new flu cases were reported in Ohio alone. Officials were considering banning in-home Halloween activities.
The war was certainly an aspect of the world situation that sped up the spread of the virus. Many allies thought it was some sort of biological warfare set loose by the Germans. Curiously, the end of the war in November 1918 may have hastened its spread as people took to the streets to congregate and party to celebrate, thus raising the prospcts of it going from person to person. In the US, the deathtoll has been set between 650,000 and 700,000. This article concerning the death of David Baltimore on this date in 1918 says that 200,000 Americans died from the Spanish Flu in October 1918 alone.
Look at huge US Life Expectancy Drop in 1918
Here’s the kicker…no one knows why this flu was so fatal. It affected about 1/3 of the total world population. Even President Wilson came down with it. Recently, tissue from a dead soldier who died from the virus was collected in an attempt to better understand it. Mysteriously, the flu pandemic ended abruptly in 1919….though some sources claim 1920. Either way, it came and went and nothing has come close to it again in scale and scope of the suffering it brought. In the US alone, the life expectancy statistics (see chart at left) fell by 10 years. Because of the mystery of the Spanish Flu pandemic relating to the virus itself, its origin, its spread and its disappearance, researchers today are quite concerned about something new, like the bird flu and the Swine Flue. It is the reason why such drastic measures were taken to try to stop any hint of the bird flu in Asia before it could get into the human population and why the Swine Flu got such huge media attention at the outset.
Employees at Schools in 1918 Took No Chances
At first, officials were pretty aggressive but as the year went on, it seems that the Swine Flu has become the butt of jokes for comedians. They even changed the name to H1N1 Flu; perhaps in deference to pig owners and perhaps to make it sound not so menacing. But, I’ve had 5% of my students in my class hospitalized in the first two months of the school year. It’s not even winter time and I’m only talking about the first two months of the semester. These are 20-somethings…typically the least vulnerable to sickness. I have to say, I’m a bit concerned that the public may be taking the potential threat too lightly.
Wednesday Morning
Weather Bottom Line: Weather looks great for Sunday. Monday there is a slight weakness in the atmosphere that may produce a few showers but I think it will mainly just create some clouds. Wednesday evening, I believe rain chances will be greatly enhanced and I wouldn’t be surprised to see thunderstorm activity show up and even possibly have the boys at the Severe Storms Prediction Center have some sort of designation for our area. We’ll have to wait to see how it shakes out.
Posted in Bob Symon, Culture, History, Louisville Forecast, Louisville Weather, News, Opinion, Science, Severe Storms Center, This Date In History, Weather | Tagged: Barak Obama, Bird Flu, CDC, CDC H1N1, CDC Swine Flue, David Baltimore, DHS Swine Flu, H1N1 Flu, Homeland Security Swine Flu, Obama, Obama Flu National Emergency, Pandemic, President Obama, Spanish Flu, Spanish Flu 1918, Spanish Flu Death Chart, Spanish Flu deaths, Spanish Flu Life Expectancy, Spanish Flu Pandemic, Spanish Flu US deaths, Swine Flu, Swine Flu deaths, Swine Flu Hospital, US Life Expectancy, US Swine Flu cases, Victims Missing Hurricane Ike | 1 Comment »
A Soggy Annie Is Helped Ashore After Her Ride
Here’s the good one…
on this date in 1901, Annie Edson Taylor made history. The 63-year-old school teacher became the
first person to go over Niagara Falls in a barrel. She strapped herself in a leather harness inside a 5 foot high and 3 foot in diameter pickle barrel. She had some sort of padding inside to limit injury. A fine idea when taking a plunge over the 175 foot Horseshoe Falls. She was towed to the middle of the Niagara River and off she went, bobbing to the surface and coming to shore some twenty minutes later none the worse for wear. Seems the old gal had lost her husband in the Civil War and in 1898 read about the increased popularity of Niagara Falls. After all, in 1829 some guy had survived jumping from a cliff into the falls but no one had gone over in a barrel. So, why not try? With her husband dead, she had little hope of being able to live anything more than a meager life for the rest of her days. She hoped the stunt would bring her fame and fortune. Well, she got her 15 minutes of fame but never made much money from the ordeal. But, she did inspire others to do the same thing though.
Overcracker Over the Falls on a Jet Ski
Annie Didn't find her stunt too Profitable
Throughout the 20th century, 15 people have tried to go over the falls one way or another. Ten have survived. Jesse Sharp went over in a kayak in 1990. He died. In 1995, Robert Overcracker tried to prove technology was the answer when he went over on a jet ski. He died too. Before you get any ideas, its illegal to attempt to go over the falls so even if you live to tell about it you might be telling your story to your cell mates. Besides that, you’d probably just end up like Annie: lost to history and broken, if not broken into pieces.
Telegraph Completed In Spite of Civil War
On This Date in History: On this date in 1861, the Pony Express, for all intents in purposes, came to an end. What caused the demise was that on October 24, 1861 first transcontinental telegraph was completed. Until that date, the Pony Express was the fastest way to get messages from the east…generally from St. Louis….to the western frontier. The telegraph was a vast improvement.
Atlantic Cable Completed In Spite of Civil War
What I find most interesting about this and things like the Transatlantic cable is what it says about the Civil War. There were several attempts all through the 1860′s at completing the cable, which finally was completed in 1866. In my view, this indicates that the Union had no conception of defeat. While the South was trying to figure out how to feed the people, find enough troops, supply those troops with armaments and with even basic necessities such as shoes and finance the effort, the Union had enough resources to work on a Transatlantic cable and complete a transcontinental telegraph. And don’t forget, these efforts were already started when the Civil War began.
Telegraph Completed In Spite of Civil War
If all that was not enough, Congress authorized the Pacific Railway Act in 1862 which was the beginning of the Transcontinental Railway. What that means is that the Union began another huge project even after the war had started. As I said, no concept of defeat. When we look at what was really going on in the North during the Civil War, we find a mindset that, regardless of the outcome of the war, the North would go on and they behaved that way. Conversely, the South was primarily focused on survival. They did some negotations with Europe over treaties regarding trade that would take effect after the war or trying to gain some official recognition that may help them win the war, much as the rebellious colonists gained recognition and support from European powers during the Revolution. But in that case, those european nations that supported the colonists were already at odds with the British.
Weather Bottom Line: A little cool on Saturday with clouds eroding during the day. Sunday looks good with highs in the low 60′s. We see some clouds with a little disturbance coming across on Monday but I betcha its too dry for much in the way of rain. Otherwise, we will see a fair amount of sunshine Tuesday and Wednesday and seasonal temperatures.
Posted in Bob Symon, Culture, Entertainment, History, Louisville Forecast, Louisville Weather, Opinion, Science, This Date In History | Tagged: Annie Edson Taylor, Attempts to go over Niagara Falls, Civil War, daredevils, First Person Over Niagara Falls In a Barrel, Going Over Niagara Falls, Jesse Sharp, Jet Ski Over Niagara, Kayak over Niagara, niagara daredevils, Niagara Falls, Pony Express, Robert Overcracker, stunts, Transatlanic Telegraph, Transatlantic Cable, Transatlantic Railroad, Woman over Niagara Falls in Barrel | 2 Comments »
Typhoon Lupit Forecast Track 12Z 10.23.09 Click Image for most recent update
Typhoon Lupit IR Satellite Loop Click for most recent
Looks like an “I told you so” is in order. When I looked at Typhoon Lupit before midnight EDT on October 22, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center had indicated that dry air had gotten into the circulation and so they downgraded Lupit to a Tropical Storm. The forecast still called for the storm to linger just north of Luzon, Philippines for a few days until a trof developed in a weakness in the ridge to the north and then it would pick up the storm and take it north. I had noted last night that I had observed on the Total Precipitable Water loop that it appeared that Lupit had already begun moving north, though it was so few frames worth, I could not be certain that it wasn’t just a wobble.
Total Precipitable Water Loop
Well, it wasn’t just a wobble. It has indeed been drifting north and now north-northeast, or away from the Philippines. The trof will continue to pick up the storm and it will slowly increase forward speed to the north-northeast and then northeast. So much so that I doubt this guy ends up being any problems for anything beside shipping interest. The storm simply took too much time to get to the Philippines. It stuck around long enough for the steering environment to change and now it would appear that the Philippines, and everyone else is in good shape. Or, you may say that prayers were answered. Either way, it seems very unlikely that Lupit will be adversely affecting any major land masses, though coastal regions of Japan will probably monitor the storm closely until it has moved sufficiently north to northeast to eliminate any landfall potential there.
Dry Air Intrusion Shows Up Well on Water Vapor Imagery Loop
I Told You So!
Posted in Bob Symon, News, Opinion, Science, Tropical Cyclones, tropical weather, Tropics, Weather | Tagged: Asia, Asia News, CIMSS, CIMSS Wisconsin, Colonel Klink, Disaster, GFS Lupit, Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Lupit Precipitable Water, MIMIC TPW, Morphed Integrated Microwave Imagery, NOGAPS Lupit, Philippines, Philippines Typhoon, Philippines Weather, Super Typhoon Lupit, typhoon Lupid, Typhoon Lupin, Typhoon Lupit, Typhoon Lupit Discussion, Typhoon Lupit Forecast Discussion, Typhoon Lupit Forecast Track, Typhoon Lupit Intensity Graph, Typhoon Lupit IR Satellite Loop, Typhoon Lupit Japan, Typhoon Lupit Luzon, Typhoon Lupit Philippines, Typhoon Lupit Satellite Loop, Typhoon Renali, Typhoons | Leave a Comment »
Western Pacific IR Color Loop click for latest
For update on brighter Typhoon Lupit Forecast Track CLICK HERE
Typhoon Lupit Forecast Track JTWC
The Typhoon Lupit Forecast Track scenario isn’t much changed from the previous post. It’s not even a Typhoon any longer. While I think in the end, the data reflects potentially a much more positive outlook for the Philippines, Filipinos remain concerned about Typhoon, now Tropical Storm, Lupit. And they should e concerned, but optimistic. Really, there are very weak steering currents and I think its been drifting WSW mainly due to its own forward momentum. The official forecast has it drift down toward Bataan on the northern edge of Luzon. Then it kinda drifts just off the northern coast in the Luzon Strait. I had noted yesterday that I thought that I saw some dry air within Lupit and now the JTWC makes note of that dry air which is responsible for further weakening. The intensity of the storm is not really the issue. The issue is rain. If this scenario plays out, then the center of circulation stays just offshore and very heavy rains could persist over parts of Luzon for about 72 hours or so. The flooding issue has always been the concern.
TRMM 3 hour rainfall click for latest
Now, I had mentioned yesterday a weakness in the ridge to the north with the center over China getting broken down. The JTWC suggests that a trof will plow through the flow and create a nice channel to the north of Lupit. That would cause the storm to be influenced north and then race northeast. That may put it onto a course for Japan similar to Typhoon Melor but I suspect that the turn would be sharp enough and early enough to keep the storm east of Japan. I looked at the NASA TRMM satellite imagery and it indicates that the area in the ocean just northeast of the Philippines has gotten over 4 inches of rain in the past 24 hours. So, from that simple comparison, it is possible that the Philippines could be receiving at least 3-5 inches of rain per day while the storm loiters offshore and right now, it would seem safe to assume the current forecast reasoning would keep the influence of Lupit on Luzon for about 3 days.
Now, there is perhaps some good news. I once had a colleague who told me of a professor that he had who reminded him all the time that the computer models were, in the end, just a piece of paper. I had a professor, Dr. Norman K. Wagner, who used to say that as forecasters we often forget to look out the window and see what is really happening. Well, if you look at the Total Precipitable Water Loop (TPW) below, you can see that it would appear the storm may be drifting north already which would suggest that it was already getting influenced by a weakness in the ridge to the north. This is my observation as of 23:38 EDT on Thursday. It could just be a wobble. But if it is an indication that it has started some movement northward, then Luzon may be in luck. We’ll have to wait and see, but the 00Z 10.23.09 JTWC update will probably reflect this change. If I had to bet, I’d say that Luzon will probably fare not nearly as badly as it once appeared it would. But, no one will rest until Lupit is gone.
Total Precipitable Water Loop
WDPN31 PGTW 230300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 22W (LUPIT) WARNING NR
037//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 22W (LUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MOST
RECENT DVORAK SATELLITE FIX AND THE 222149Z MICROWAVE FIX FROM PGTW.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 60 KNOTS IS BASED ON ESTIMATES
FROM PGTW AND RJTD. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN IMPACTED BY MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL DRY
AIR INTRUSION ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER PRODUCTS INDICATE THAT THE DRY AIR CROSSING OVER LUZON IS
BEGINNING TO WRAP TOWARDS THE CENTER, CAUSING A FURTHER DISRUPTION
IN ORGANIZATION OF DEEP CONVECTION. A RECENT 222245Z SSMIS PASS
SHOWS THAT THE WESTERN BANDING AND THE WESTERN WALL OF THE EYE ARE
SEVERELY IMPACTED BY DRY AIR ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.
TS 22W CONTINUES TO TRACK IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE WEST AND THE STR TO THE EAST. AN
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS OF THE REGION DEPICTS A WEAK FINGER OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AT THE 700 TO 500 MB LEVELS IS STILL EXTENDING
WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF TS 22W. THE SYSTEM IS CONTINUING TO SLOW AS
IT GETS DEEPER INTO AN ILL DEFINED STEERING ENVIRONMENT, BUT IS
STILL TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
RIDGE FINGER.
3. FORECAST REASONING
A. THE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. TY 22W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SLOWING BEFORE EVENTUALLY
LOITERING IN THE STRAIT OF LUZON THROUGH TAU 72. THE PASSAGE OF A
MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AROUND TAU 6 THROUGH 12 WILL CAUSE THE
SYSTEM TO TRACK A BIT MORE POLEWARD AS THE FINGER OF THE RIDGE TO
THE NORTH ERODES SLIGHTLY. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH, THE
SYSTEM WILL RESUME DRIFTING TOWARDS THE WEST. NUMERICAL MODELS
REMAIN INCONSISTENT. ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TRACK THE
SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE FINGER OF THE RIDGE. HOWEVER,
NOGAPS, GFDN, ECMWF, AND UKMO NOW TRACK THE SYSTEM MUCH SLOWER
THROUGH TAU 72, AND THEN TRACK THE SYSTEM ERRATICALLY AFTER TAU 72.
THE MODELS ARE STILL UNSTABLE, AND THE FORECAST TRACK REMAINS ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF THE ANALYZED FINGER OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST.
THE VERY PROBABLE SCENARIO OF THE SYSTEM TURNING POLEWARD BY TAU 24
AND MOVING INTO THE WESTERLY MIDLATITUDE FLOW REMAINS AN ALTERNATE
SCENARIO IN RESPONSE TO THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH, WEAKENING OF THE
RIDGE TO THE WEST, OR REORIENTATION OF THE STR TO THE EAST.
C. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL STILL BE IN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT AND IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE NORTH AS THE
FINGER OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EVENTUALLY ERODES BACK TO THE EAST.
HOWEVER, AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO WEAKEN IN THE FACE OF DRY AIR
AND INTERACTION FROM LAND, THE SYSTEM COULD WEAKEN TO THE POINT THAT
IT IS STEERED BY THE NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW AND TRACK INTO THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA.//
NNNN
Posted in Bob Symon, News, Opinion, Science, Tropical Cyclones, tropical weather, Tropics, Weather | Tagged: Asia, Asia News, Bataan, CIMSS, CIMSS Wisconsin, Disaster, Dr. Norman K Wagner, GFS Lupit, Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Lupit Precipitable Water, MIMIC TPW, Morphed Integrated Microwave Imagery, NOGAPS Lupit, Philippines, Philippines News Lupit, Philippines Rain total, Philippines Typhoon, Philippines Weather, Super Typhoon Lupit, TRMM 3 Hour Rainfall Totals, typhoon Lupid, Typhoon Lupin, Typhoon Lupit, Typhoon Lupit Discussion, Typhoon Lupit Forecast Discussion, Typhoon Lupit Forecast Track, Typhoon Lupit Intensity Graph, Typhoon Lupit IR Satellite Loop, Typhoon Lupit Japan, Typhoon Lupit Luzon, Typhoon Lupit Philippines, Typhoon Lupit Satellite Loop, Typhoon Renali, Typhoons | Leave a Comment »
We have all become somewhat accustomed to going through security metal detectors or submitting items to go through an x-ray machine at airports and many public buildings. Typically, before you walk through the metal detector, you are asked to empty your pockets into a tray or bowl that is then put through an x-ray machine. Well, this guy in Abilene, Texas went to the Taylor County Courthouse to visit a friend who had been arrested. Before going through the metal detector, he emptied his pockets. Shortly thereafter, he was put in jail. You see…the man put a bag of marijuana into the bowl and handed it over to the sheriff’s deputies. Lesson here is that, if you are a dope smoker, make sure to empty your pockets before you go visit the courthouse.
Pretty Scene and Pretty Nuts
On This Date in History: Bungee jumping has become rather popular. You even see set ups at county and state fairs. Some people have gotten rather daring. This video of guy who grabbed a bunged cord with his hands, lept several hundred feet and let go just as his feet hit the ground is a good example of how people try to enhance the experience. It can be dangerous and hoaxers have taken advantage of this fact. This Spike TV phoney video shows a bungee jumper getting his head bitten off by a crocodile. However, there have been a number of harrowing true experiences, like this video from Thailand of a man who lept 165 feet only to have the bungee cord break. None of this should be a surprise because we have a lesson from the past.
The Great Peters Really Did Lose His Mind and his Head
Aloys Peters used to do a performance in the circus in which he dove from a platform 75 feet high with a noose around his neck. Like the guy who let go of the bungee cord at just the right moment, Peters would grab the rope seconds before it tightened. His powerful arms and the ropes elasticity would absorb the shock. He did the act for about 12 years, but that was it. He was forced into permanent retirement. On this date in 1943, The Great Peters lept from his 75 foot perch at the Fireman’s Wild West Rodeo and Thrill Circus in St. Louis. Peters made some sort of mistake because before he could grasph the rope, it tightened violently and his neck snapped before 5600 spectators. His wife Catherine had not missed a show during their 3 years of marriage but opted out of this performance as she rested due to her pregnancy. Lesson here? Keep your feet on the ground.
NAM Rainfall through Friday 8AM
Weather Bottom Line: Weather story remains the same. There is a little bit of a dispute between computer models as the NAM wants to bring us a little more than 1.75 inches of rain starting on Thursday night and carrying through Saturday morning with over 1.5 inches falling by midday Friday. The GFS advertises less than an inch of rain through Saturday morning with the bulk of that Thursday night and early Friday morning. So, if we say 1-2 inches of rain from say, midnight Thursday to noon on Saturday we will be in the ballpark. Most of the weekend will be dry but cooler with highs in the 50′s. First part of next week looks lovely with highs in the low to mid 60′s.
Posted in Bob Symon, Culture, Entertainment, History, Louisville Forecast, Louisville Weather, News, Opinion, Science, This Date In History, Weather | Tagged: Aloys Peters, Bag of Pot at Courthouse, bungee jump hoax, Bungee jump video, Bungee Jumper Crocodile Video, Bungee Jumper lands on feet, bungee jumping, Cheech and Chong, Crime, decapitation by crocodile, dope, Drugs, Dumb criminals, marijuana, NAM, pot, stupid bungee jumpers, stupid criminals, Taylor County Courthouse, The Great Peters, thrill seekers | 3 Comments »
Typhoon Lupit IR Satellite Loop-click for latest images
For updated information regarding Typhoon Lupit and the Philippines CLICK HERE
Typhoon Lupit Forecast Track
Within the previous post, I made the following comment regarding the Typhoon Lupit Forecast Track: “I would also keep my ears on if I were in Taiwan. The fact that the storm has slowed down may allow for some other environmental factors that would cause the track to change significantly.” What I was talking about is that the forecast track that has been so consistent for so long with a landfall for the northern Philippines was based on the assumption of the storm maintaining a consistent forward motion. I had noted that Typhoon Lupit was slowing down. The problem with that is that as it slows down, it allows for the increasing potential that the steering mechanisms will change. That appears to have happened. The models,which had been tightly packed are now all over the place. It is no longer a probability that Typhoon Lupit strikes the Philippines but instead just one of a number of possibilities. There is even the real possibility that this storm hits nothing; that is curves north of the Philippines, stays east of Taiwan and gets picked up in the flow such that it races northeast off the Japan coast. But again, that is but one possibility.
Typhoon Lupit Water Vapor Loop
As it stands now, the official track takes Typhoon Lupit just along the northern coast of Luzon at a very slow pace if not nearly stationary. That would be potentially very bad as the center of circulation would stay offshore and heavy rain potential for over 48 hours over Luzon could be extremely problematic. I would almost venture to say that this is a worse scenario than a direct quick hit and passage. But, if you read the forecast reasoning from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center below, you can read the number of times that they speak of uncertainty. The reason for that is that, as previously stated, the models are all over the place. There are indications that the steering ridge to the west over China is eroding. That would tend to support the models contention that the ridge over the Pacific will become more dominant with its influence. Think of it as a weakness between ridges and if that is the case, then the storm will want to go poleward between the ridges in that weak channel. But, the potential problem lies in the time it takes for that weak channel to develop. Until it does, the storm will sorta drift around in a quasistationary state until the steering currents get more established. That is what the early morning forecast track on October 22 reflects.
Total Precipitable Water Loop
This is no longer a forecast of high confidence. The Philippines is still not out of the woods. But, Taiwan and Japan face a possible threat. I had noted that there seemed to be some dry air within the storm that may inhibit intensification. The JTWC, however, notes dry air to the northwest but reports that the Total Precipitable Water imagery does not indicate that dry air has gotten into the flow. If the storm does in fact have enough momentum to take it down toward the Philippines before it begins to drift, the JTWC feels like there is some chance for an increase in intensity but it is almost unthinkable for this to get anywhere close to its former super typhoon status. I would think that the biggest concern for Luzon will be rainfall and the proximity of the storm to the coast when it does become quasistationary. If this guy lingers around too long, it may get killed by some unforseen outside influence. So many possibilities and so many questions.
WDPN31 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 22W (LUPIT) WARNING NR 033//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TYPHOON 22W (LUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 340 NM NORTHEAST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS
A SYSTEM WITH GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW AND DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING
TIGHTLY INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE SYSTEM
REMAINS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, TRANSITIONING BETWEEN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST AND THE STR TO THE WEST.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM UNDER AN UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE IN A REGION OF FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM, BUT PRECIPITABLE
WATER DOES NOT YET SHOW DRY AIR INTRUSION. POSITION IS BASED ON
FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD. INTENSITY IS BASED ON ESTIMATES FROM PGTW,
RJTD AND KNES.
3. FORECAST REASONING
A. THIS FORECAST REPRESENTS A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE LAST PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN. THE CURRENT
FORECAST HAS THE SYSTEM BECOMING QUASISTATIONARY IN THE VICINITY OF
THE STRAIT OF LUZON WITH THE VERY PROBABLE SCENARIO OF A POLEWARD
TURN.
B. TY 22W IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AND LOITER IN THE WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN THE STR TO THE EAST AND THE STR TO THE WEST. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY IN A RELATIVELY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN TIP OF LUZON. THE FURTHER
WEST THE SYSTEM TRACKS, THE LESS OF AN INFLUENCE THE STR TO THE WEST
BECOMES. THE WESTERN RIDGE, HOWEVER, IS BEING ERODED BY DRY,
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME A DOMINANT
INFLUENCE ON THE SYSTEM IN THE EARLY TAUS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS ERRATIC, A COMMON INDICATOR OF A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT.
UNTIL THEY STABILIZE, NOT A LOT OF CREDIBILITY IS BEING PLACED ON
THE MODELS. CURRENTLY, THE MAJORITY OF AIDS HAVE THE SYSTEM MAKING A
SUDDEN POLEWARD TURN BETWEEN TAUS 12 AND 24; PRESUMABLY THEY HAVE
THE STR TO THE EAST BECOMING THE MAIN INFLUENCE ON THE SYSTEM.
CURRENT ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS OF THE REGION DOES NOT REVEAL A CLEAR
PICTURE OF THE SYNOPTIC STEERING FLOW, LIKELY DUE TO THE WEAK
ENVIRONMENT. THIS FORECAST PRESENTS THE SYSTEM TRACKING VERY SLOWLY
IN THE ILL DEFINED STEERING FLOW.
C. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE NORTHERN TIP OF LUZON, IT IS
EXPECTED TO START WEAKENING SLIGHTLY AS INFLOW BECOMES DISRUPTED.
THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY, AND SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT
POLEWARD TURN DURING THE PASSAGE OF A SHORT-WAVE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH.
THERE REMAINS A VERY LIKELY CHANCE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE PICKED UP
BY THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE EAST SOMETIME BETWEEN TAU
12 AND TAU 36, IN WHICH CASE IT WILL TURN POLEWARD AND START TO
ACCELERATE INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. //
NNNN
Posted in Bob Symon, News, Opinion, Science, Tropical Cyclones, tropical weather, Tropics, Weather | Tagged: Asia, Asia News, Bataan, CIMSS, CIMSS Wisconsin, Disaster, GFS Lupit, Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Lupit Precipitable Water, MIMIC TPW, Morphed Integrated Microwave Imagery, NOGAPS Lupit, Philippines, Philippines Typhoon, Philippines Weather, Super Typhoon Lupit, typhoon Lupid, Typhoon Lupin, Typhoon Lupit, Typhoon Lupit Discussion, Typhoon Lupit Forecast Discussion, Typhoon Lupit Forecast Track, Typhoon Lupit Intensity Graph, Typhoon Lupit IR Satellite Loop, Typhoon Lupit Japan, Typhoon Lupit Luzon, Typhoon Lupit Philippines, Typhoon Lupit Satellite Loop, Typhoon Lupit Taiwan, Typhoon Lupit Vietnam, Typhoon Renali, Typhoons | Leave a Comment »
- Most “Active” President?
On This Date in History: On October 22, 1919 a baby girl named Elizabeth Ann was born to Nan Britton. That was no big deal to most people, unless you were aspiring to become President of the United States.
The Lovely Couple
Ohio Senator Warren G. Harding won his first term as Senator in 1914. He said he found the upper chamber of the Congress “a very pleasing place.” He was handsome and popular, having served in the Ohio State Senate and as Ohio Lt. Governor, though he lost a bid for Governor. He gave the nominated speech for President Taft at the 1912 Republican Convention. Let’s see…first term Senator from Midwest…handsome….popular…active in state politics and key speaker at a convention. Sound familiar?
Anyway, there was a snarl in the nominating process at the 1920 Republican convention and in one of those “smoke filled room” stories, party leaders agreed to make Harding the candidate. It is unclear if those party leaders would have even considered Harding had they known of his affection for the ladies.
Florence Harding: Infintesimally Scorned Woman?
In 1927, 3 years after Harding’s death, Nan Britton published a book called The President’s Daughter. In it, she claimed that she had fallen in love with Harding when he was 45 and she was but 14! In 1917, Nan moved from Ohio to New York and wrote Harding for help in finding a job. She said he came to her and “tucked $30 in my brand new silk stocking.” She claimed that they had a long romance but that she had burned all of the love letters that he had written her as per an agreement between them. She said that he had burned her letters too but, after his death, the real Mrs. Harding, burned all of his correspondence and up in smoke went any corroborating evidence. But, the charge remained that Elizabeth Ann was the only child of Warren G. Harding.
Wife of Harding's Friend
Warren G. Harding love letters to his mistress did eventually show up. Trouble is, they weren’t to Nan Britton but instead belonged to Carrie Phillips, the Ohio wife of one of Harding’s best friends. Not sure if that makes Warren his best man. The letters show that Carrie “was the love of Harding’s life.” Their 10 year affair began in 1909 when the two couples were touring Europe. I’m trying to figure out what Mr. Phillips and Mrs. Harding were doing when Mr. Harding and Mrs. Phillips were horsing around. Anyway, Warren didn’t just write letters to Phillips, he wrote novels. They were often as long as 40 pages and were sexually explicit.
But…there’s more! People today often try to make up excuses for their behavior. Well, Warren’s not around to do that but he has modern clinical analysts to do his bidding. There is a school of thought that President Harding was a victim of satyriasis. That is an unmangeable, excessive need for sex. They point to the fact that he kept a room next to the Oval Office reserved for quick action with any number of women that may wander his way. They also suggest it as a reason for his habit of writing such long, rambling, graphic love letters.
Teapot Dome Steamrolled Harding to Death?
I don’t know about all of that but I do think that, aside from the Teapot Dome Scandal, this type of catting around may be a good reason why many scholars over the years tried to make the case that when he died in 1923 it was murder and not food poisoning followed by a heart attack. If it was murder, it sounds as if there would be a long list of suspects, starting with Mrs. Harding and then carrying on through a long list of women as well as their husbands, boyfriends and fathers. One thing for certain, if a love triangle involves 3 people, then Warren G. Harding would have to be described as being involved in a love polygon.
Fools Challenge Waves in Mazatlan-Click for AP Gallery
Hurricane Rick…No Tropical Storm Rick…No More I reported yesterday that I wasn’t too enthused about Hurricane Rick, even when it was blowing and going as a full blown category 5 hurricane. That’s because of its proximity of cold water and its slow movement. The media tried to hype it up and make it sound as a fact that it was going to blow Baja California off the map. Well, Tropical Storm Rick ran into cold water and has moved into northern Mexico north of Mazatlan. It is already disappaiting over the foothills of the Sierra Madre. The reports say that it may drop an inch of rain inland. Sounds like no big deal, right? Well, some of the areas where the rain will fall are desert regions and so an inch of rain in a relatively short period of time can cause flooding concerns.
Friday 8 AM
Weather Bottom Line: We have a somewhat complicated situation coming up, but I suppose not too much so and also not unusual. An area of low pressure will be coming out of the South-Central plains into our region from the mid-Mississippi Valley. Also a cold front will be sinking down from the north. As a warm front tries to lift our way on Thursday ahead of the front, high clouds will build up until over-running moisture is such that rain chances go up on Thursday night and they stick around all day Friday. The GFS is throwing out 1.23″ of rain from Thurs. night into early Saturday morning while the NAM advertises 1.38″. The NWS is suggesting something a bit more might be possible and that would certainly be a good call. The weekend looks pretty good with clouds moving out by Saturday afternoon. It will be cool though with highs not getting to the 60′s until at least the early part of next week.
Posted in Bob Symon, History, Hurricanes, Louisville Forecast, Louisville Weather, News, Opinion, Politics, Science, This Date In History, Tropical Cyclones, tropical weather, Tropics, Weather | Tagged: Carrie Phillips, celebrity sex, historical sex, Hurricane Rick, Mazatlan Weather, menage et trois, Nan Britton, Presidential Affairs, Presidential scandal, presidential sex, sex, Sexual Liasons, Teapot Dome Scandal, The President’s Daughter, Tropical Storm Rick, Tropical Storm Rick Mazatlan, Tropical Storm Rick photos, Warren G. Harding | Leave a Comment »
Typhoon Lupit 23:30Z 10.20.09
For a more recent update on the changing forecast track of Typhoon Lupit CLICK HERE
Typhoon Lupit Forecast Track
The Typhoon Lupit Forecast Track and intensity forecast remains fairly consistent. However, the timing of the landfall has been pushed back somewhat. The GFS model wants to take the storm into Luzon, south of Port San Vincente at 12Z Friday October 23. The US Navy NOGAPS model wants to run the storm between Bataan and Port San Vincente. The official track from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center splits this narrow difference in between. It appears to me that they both have a tropical cyclone making landfall with a central pressure of around 982 mb or so, which is relatively speaking, not that low. For that reason, the intensity forecast has been pulled back to about 90 kts (105 mph) at landfall. While the slower forward motion means the storm makes a landfall a day later than previously forecast, it also means that the storm will be affecting the northern Philippines for over 24 hours. The real problem with this storm will be the heavy rain potential. Areas on the mountains on the western half of the Luzon province will be particularly vulnerable.
Typhoon Lupit IR satellite loop-click more most recent loop
I’ve seen several different spellings for this storm. I’ve seen Typhoon Lupin, Typhoon Lupid, and Typhoon Renali. The last one is the name given in the western Pacific, which I can’t figure out because countries from all around the world contribute to the list of names used by the World Meteorological Organization, yet there is another list used by the locals. What is particularly perplexing about this is that Lupit was the name provided by the Phillipines. Anyway, in general, Typhoon Lupit has behaved itself and the forecast has been pretty verifiable. The track did move north of the 20 degree N. Latitude line before beginning to move more westward and so as the ridge builds in to the north and starts to shove the storm more west-southwesterly it is doing so a shade later. Hence, this is the reason for the forecast landfall point position just north of the previous landfall projections. By and large though, its not a significant shift except that the greatest storm surge, seas and even winds would remain just offshore if the forecast track is verified. But, its stilll several days away and so it would be wise for everyone on the northeastern part of Luzon to be prepared for the surge potential. I would also keep my ears on if I were in Taiwan. The fact that the storm has slowed down may allow for some other environmental factors that would cause the track to change significantly.
Total Precipitable Water Loop
The Total Precipitable Water loop is a good tool to view the motion of the storm. Clearly you can see the move to the northwest and then west. If you use the 20 degree N. Latititude line as a guide, it is also apparent that Typhoon Lupit has moved just south of due west in the latest images. It is also clearly apparent that drier air has surrounded the storm but in the later frames, the precipitable water reflectivity has increased. Hence, it is possible that the storm may be getting into a little better environment. This would not suggest that the storm will get stronger, but instead the degradation process is probably over. It still has a good looking structure and there is really nothing to suggest that this guy will just go away. If it does not stay over Luzon for long and follows the track that will keep at least part of the circulation over water means that the re-intensification process once it leaves the Philippines area may be more problematic for Vietnam. People forget that Vietnam was adversely affected by Ketsana and Parma. As it is, Vietnam or southern China will be affected by a significant tropical cyclone. But, its not totally out of the question that the storm may be stronger at its second landfall than the first.
Full Pacific Loop
Just as a sidelight, if you look at the full pacific satellite loop, you will notice another tropical cyclone south of Hawaii. That is Tropical Storm Neki. It is forecast to deepen into a Hurricane (or Typhoon though I think in the Central Pacific they are still Hurricanes) and move northwest. It is forecast to become pretty formidable and it will be interesting to see how it affects the Midway Islands.
WDPN31 PGTW 210300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 22W (LUPIT) WARNING NR 029//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TYPHOON (TY) 22W (LUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 475 NM
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
RECENT SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM A
202310Z SSMIS MICROWAVE SATELLITE PASS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF 80 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH A 202330Z PGTW DVORAK T-
NUMBER VALUE OF 4.0/5.0. TY 22W IS TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENSION TO THE
NORTH. THE INTERNAL STRUCTURE OF THE TYPHOON HAS NOT YET FULLY
RECOVERED AFTER CONTENDING WITH A SLOT OF DRIER, MORE STABLE AIR AND
UNDERGOING AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. HOWEVER, A LARGE EYE
FEATURE, THOUGH OBSCURED IN MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY, REMAINS
EVIDENT IN RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INCLUDING THE 202310Z
SSMIS PASS.
3. FORECAST REASONING
A. FORECAST INTENSITIES HAVE BEEN DECREASED BASED ON THE CURRENT
WEAKENING TREND. HOWEVER, THE GENERAL FORECAST INTENSITY TREND AND
ASSOCIATED REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED. FORECAST TRACK SPEEDS HAVE
ALSO DECREASED, PARTICULARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, IN ANTICIPATION
OF A WEAKER STEERING FLOW THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
B. TY 22W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANALYZED TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OF THE TYPHOON REPLACES THE CURRENT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
EXTENSION TO THE NORTH AS THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM. THE TRACK
FORECAST FOR TY 22W HAS BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING DUE TO A SPLIT IN THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE.
ONE SET OF MODEL SOLUTIONS, INCLUDING THE NOGAPS, GFDN, AND GFS,
DEPICTS A SLOWDOWN AND POLEWARD RECURVATURE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
STRENGTHENING PERIPHERAL ANTICYCLONE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE STORM
DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS. A SECOND SET OF SOLUTIONS, INCLUDING THE
ECMWF, JGSM, AND UKMET, SHOW THE TYPHOON CONTINUING WESTWARD AS THE
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST BECOMES THE PRIMARY
STEERING MECHANISM. THIS SECOND SET OF SOLUTIONS IS CONSISTENT WITH
THE MAJORITY OF THE PREVIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE AND JTWC FORECASTS, AND
IS SUPPORTED BY ANALYSIS OF BOTH A PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST OF TY 22W AND A ZONAL UPSTREAM MIDLATITUDE FLOW
PATTERN. THUS, THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK FAVORS THESE WESTWARD-
RUNNING MODEL SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER, A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN THE
FORECAST MAY BE NECESSARY IF MODEL GUIDANCE AND SYNOPTIC FEATURES
SHIFT IN FAVOR OF THE SLOWER MOTION SCENARIO. LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND FAVORABLE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT SOME
INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 48, WHEN THE STORM CIRCULATION WILL
BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH TERRAIN OVER NORTHERN LUZON.
C. TRACK SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY SLOW IN THE
TAU 96 TO TAU 120 EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AS WEAKNESS DEVELOPS IN
THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. AS THE WEAKENED CYCLONE REEMERGES
OVER WATER, FAVORABLY HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS SHOULD SUPPORT GRADUAL REINTENSIFICATION.//
NNNN
Posted in Bob Symon, News, Opinion, Science, Tropical Cyclones, tropical weather, Tropics, Weather | Tagged: Asia, Asia News, Bataan, CIMSS, CIMSS Wisconsin, Disaster, GFS Lupit, Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Lupit Precipitable Water, MIMIC TPW, Morphed Integrated Microwave Imagery, NOGAPS Lupit, Philippines, Philippines Typhoon, Philippines Weather, Port San Vincente, Super Typhoon Lupit, Tropical Storm Neki, typhoon Lupid, Typhoon Lupin, Typhoon Lupit, Typhoon Lupit Discussion, Typhoon Lupit Forecast Discussion, Typhoon Lupit Forecast Track, Typhoon Lupit Intensity Graph, Typhoon Lupit IR Satellite Loop, Typhoon Lupit Luzon, Typhoon Lupit Philippines, Typhoon Lupit Satellite Loop, Typhoon Lupit Taiwan, Typhoon Lupit Vietnam, Typhoon Neki, Typhoon Renali, Typhoons | Leave a Comment »
Click on Latest Rick Satellite Loop
Cold Water From Alaska Snuffs Pacific Hurricanes That Wander Too Far North
I’ve sorta ignored Hurricane Rick simply because I knew it was being puffed up by the media. Yes, it was the 2nd strongest hurricane ever recorded in the Eastern Pacific and yes it was a category 5 hurricane. But, if you’ve ever been to Acapulco, then you know how cold the water is. There is a little thing called the California Stream, which much like the Gulf Stream, is an ocean current. The Gulf Stream takes warm water from the Gulf of Mexico and transports it all the way to England. I believe the Gulf Stream was first discovered by Ben Franklin. Well, the California Stream takes cold water from near Alaska and transports it equatorward and is why the waters off the California coast are so chilly. It tends to hug the Baja California coast and then down along the Mexican coast. The warm water is offshore. At times, hurricanes do travel north from off the Mexican coast and when they do, they run into the cold water and immediately start falling apart. If they are moving rapidly, they can still have a good kick to them at landfall in Baja or in Northwestern Mexico.
Rick Forecast Track
But, the once Mighty Rick was not moving all that fast and so as it moved across colder water, had no chance of survival as it was.As it stands now, the National Hurricane Center is issuing a discussion for Tropical Storm Rick. In any event, it will still be problematic for areas that it runs over, expecially with heavy rain. I would think that flooding in resorts and impoverished areas of Mexico alike will be the gravest threat. Now, moisture from Pacific hurricanes often makes its way into Texas, the plains and even the Ohio Valley of the US. But, in this case the moisture should get wrung out over the Sierra Madre mountains in Mexico and any residual moisture will get swept up in a big trof that will dig deep into the nation and some may end up in south or east Texas..maybe the US Gulf Coast, but nothing overly significant, I should think.
Bear Bryant Tops In Value
On This Date in History: In America, it is said that sport has become a religion. When I lived in Birmingham, I went into an art store and saw a bust of Nathan Bedford Forrest for $550. The busts of Jesus and Robert E. Lee went for $600. If you wanted one of Bear Bryant, you had to let go of $650. Now, in a number of churches you will often find stained glass windows. They can be quite beautiful and often depict scenes of religious significance. Sometimes a church may devote a section to the history of that particular church or something else related to the community. I’ve seen one Episcopal church with a whole series of windows showing the progression of the early history of the United States. But, I have never heard of a stained glass window devoted to the holiest of activities in America: sports.
Step Up To the Plate Instead of Pass the Plate?
Well, on this date in 1951, the world’s largest Gothic cathedral unveiled their stained glass window devoted to sports. In 1924, the daughter of the Episcopal Bishop of New York became enthralled with the Olympic games of that year. She somehow talked her father into devoting an entire window to…”the glory of sport.” Now, that may be a stretch regarding the term “glory” as it relates to divinity so it was no doubt a tough sell when trying to raise funds to install the grand window at New York’s Cathedral of St. John the Divine. So, who better to turn to than famed sports writer Grantland Rice. So, Rice did his best of persuasive prose when he wrote, “One of the main objects of both (sports and religion) is to build up the spirit of fair play, square dealing and clean living.” That argument seems a little thin to me.
Earnhardt Immortalized in Stained Glass
Apparently it took a little more than hyperbole to raise the cash because the original design was altered. The modern sports figures captured in glass were shrunk to just a small area with the larger depictions reserved for biblical “athletes” like Elijah and Samson. To cap it off, the window was dedicated to Saint Hubert, who is the patron saint of hunting. Try to think of what sports figures of today would earn a place in your devine stained glass windows. I bet that NASCAR fans would insist upon Dale Earnhardt.
Weather Bottom Line: Another great day for Wednesday with temperatures moving into the low 70′s. On Thursday, a front approaches and clouds start to increase. Rain chances crescendo on Thursday night into Friday followed by dry but cool conditions again for the weekend with highs in the 50′s.
Posted in Bob Symon, Culture, History, Hurricanes, Louisville Forecast, Louisville Weather, News, Opinion, Science, Sports, This Date In History, Tropical Cyclones, tropical weather, Tropics, Weather | Tagged: Bear Bryant, California Current, California Stream, Cathedral of St John Divine, cathedral of st john divine stained glass window, Dale Earnhardt, glory of sports stained glass window, Gulf Stream, Hurricane Rick, Hurricane Rick Forecast, Hurricane Rick Forecast Track, Hurricane Rick Satellite, Religion, Tropical Storm Rick, Tropical Storm Rick Forecast | Leave a Comment »
