The Flag Gets Its Day and The World Gets The Donald! June 14, 2009

The Flag Is Commemorated in all Worlds

On This Date in History: Flag Day commemorates June 14, 1777 when Congress adopted officially the stars and stripes. The colonial army had the Grand Union flag, supposedly created by Betsy Ross. Now, historians have not been able to prove the legend…BUT…they have not been able to disprove it either…so who knows. I say stick with the legend until someone can prove otherwise.

Hundreds of Thousands Have Defending the Stars

Anyway, the first Flag Day celebration was on This Date in 1877 to mark the 100th anniversary. President Woodrow Wilson proclaimed June 14 as Flag day on May 30, 1916. So a year later, he made a big speech…the speech was more about rallying the nation behind the war effort as just two months before the US had declared War on Germany and entered WWI. Congress in 1949 officially designated June 14 as Flag Day as a day of national observance. So, if Flag Day was so important and had been around so long, why did Congress wait until 172 years after the fact to make it official? Well, the Democrats had re-taken control of Congress in 1948 after a brief period of Republican control. Around this time, there was Soviet communist expansion in Europe and Mao Tse Tung in mid 1949 had run Chang Kai Shek off to Taiwan and mainland China was communist. Though Congress at the time didn’t know it, the Soviets were about to explode their first nuclear weapon on Aug. 29, 1949, breaking America’s brief monopoly on nukes. There were cases of espionage involving Soviet communist spies in the American Government like the Alger Hiss case. Republicans were charging the Democrats with being soft on communism and creating an atmosphere that fostered the growth of communism in this nation. So…Congress officially adopted Flag Day as June 14. Its probably a pretty fair spot to argue that the Red Scare of the 1950′s really began on June 14, 1949. I guess with the fear of communism fading, so has the ideals that created the first Flag Day in 1877…but go ahead and think about the flag anyway and what it means to you. A lot of people have fought and died for the ideals that the flag represents and it at least deserves a moment’s reflection.

Fred Trump Celebrated Flag Day in 1946 Welcoming Donald into the World

On This Date In History: Fred Trump was a successful real-estate developer in New York. On this date in 1946, he introduced the world to his son Donald, who seems to be intent on making a bigger splash than anyone in human history. After Donald Trump finished his MBA at the Wharton School of Business, he went to work for dad. He quickly developed an ability to work the business of building and development. In the 1970′s, New York was in terrible financial condition and Trump took advantage by buying up properties at good prices and gaining tax concessions for his projects.

You're Fired!

In the 1980′s, he looked toward hotels, high rise condos and casinos. He claims his net worth skyrocketed into the billions. Others think that was a large over-estimate. In any event, when the 90′s came about, his fortunes turned and his empire crumbled and he even had to declare bankruptcy on some of his developments. But, by the late 90′s, he was back on his feet and amassing wealth once again. On a couple of occasions he was urged to run for President but instead he took his celebrity and turned to the tube. He had several years of The Apprentice which was a hit for a while and his trademark “you’re fired” became part of the pop culture lexicon. In 2005, Forbes magazine estimated his net worth at $2.7 billion. Trump says it was way more. Critics claim he wasn’t even a billionaire.

But you know what…if the legend is better than the truth, print the legend. Trump has marketed himself and his name to the point that he is one of the best known people in America if not the world. And, as Larry King indicates in the photo above, his hair may have outstripped the rest of his worldly accomplishments as the most famous part of him. But, you have to admit, he doesn’t look like a 63 year-old man.  Wonder what I would look like if I had some money.

Weather Bottom Line:   The models are kinda all over the place.  That’s because there are a bunch of little short waves that are progged to move through the region from time to time in the week ahead.  Each model has a little different solution though and honestly I’m not so sure that any of the models can be trusted because its so difficult to be able to pick out relatively small scale features so many days out.  Nevertheless, I’m thinking that there may be a pop up afternoon t’storm this afternoon.  There’s a bit of consistency with the idea of a short moving through here on Monday.  While its not a universal solution, I would think that Monday would be a better chance for afternoon activity as we move into the mid to upper 80′s and humidity levels increase.  At this point, it seems though that midweek may prove of interest.  Nothing to really hang your hat on so enjoy today and worry about it later.

Can the GOP Prevent Judge Sotomayor From Coming to a Vote? Can the President Invent Executive Privilege? June 13, 2009

In Jefferson's Day, Some Thought He Wanted to Burn the Constitution at the alter of Satan!

Can GOP block Sotomayor? Does It want To?

Can the Republicans Block the Sotomayor selection to the Supreme Court?  On this post from several days ago, I outlined how it appeared to me that the flip of Sen. Arlen Spector to the Democratic party might alter the Senate Judicial Committee such that the Republicans could keep her nomination in committee.  I haven’t seen anyone on TV talk about this which makes me wonder what happened or if my assessment was flawed.  Better yet, the question remains as to whether the GOP would want to exercise that option in the first place.  Judge Sotomayor’s legal opinions sometimes seem at odds with her public comments.

On This Date In History:  On this date in 1807, President Thomas Jefferson received a subpoena to testify at the treason trial of his former Vice-President, Aaron Burr.  If you recall, Burr and Jefferson both had the same number of electoral votes for the 1800 presidential election.  The tie went to the House of Representatives who voted for Jefferson only after Tom’s old nemesis, Alexander Hamilton, reluctantly went to bat for the famous statesman.  That made Jefferson the President and Burr the Vice-President.  The original Constitution had the second place electoral vote-getter become Vice-President.  But that meant that political rivals had to be the team. 

Burr and Jefferson Not Good Buddies

That obviously created problems and the Constitution was changed.  The problem became all too apparent when Burr, as the sitting Vice-President, took out his anger at Hamilton for his support of Jefferson, as well as other items of disagreement, by taking Hamilton to the dueling field.  Burr killed the Revolutionary Hero and a warrant was issued for the Vice-President’s arrest for murder.  Burr fled until the charges were dropped.

Well, Burr wasn’t done.  His political career was over in the United States as the public turned on him for his duel.  So, he secretly conspired with Britain and Spain to try and set up a new country in the Southwest of what is now the United States and part of Mexico.  Of course, Burr would rule the new empire.  But, he plot was foiled and he went to trial for Treason.  As part of his defense, he had Jefferson, still the sitting President, called to the trial to produce documents that would exonerate him.  But, Jefferson cited his right to protect the public interest as reason for not showing up at the trial and he only offered a few of the documents requested.  If Jefferson was trying to send Burr to the gallows it didn’t work because Chief Justice John Marshall declared that the charges were to be dropped due to lack of evidence.

Peter Charles Hoffer Wrote About Burr Treason Trials

Now, I’m not sure why the Chief Justice was involved unless somehow an appeal was made to the Supreme Court or if the judicial system was different then.  But, I do know that this is another of a number of instances in which President Jefferson simply ignored the Constitution to suit his needs. On these here pages, we’ve talked about the undeclared Barbary Pirate War which I suppose set the precedent for other undeclared conflicts to come , with the President exercising the role of commander in chief as reason for using the military overseas.  And, we’ve reviewed Jefferson’s funding of the Lewis and Clark expedition as an example of how Jefferson the President acted perhaps differently than Jefferson the author of the Declaration of Independence.  So often today, when we hear charges that the President is shredding the Constitution, we hear the name of Jefferson invoked….when in fact, Jefferson is hardly the one who should be upheld as the President who held the Constitution without contempt.

Mole Not a Spy, But a Patriot! American Opines Obama is “sort of God” after Russian Says Obama is Gorbachev June 11, 2009

Is This What Evan Thomas Means When He Said Obama is "sort of God?"

A Few Days Ago, we found that a Russian Op-ed piece in Pravda said that President Obama was the American version of Mikhail Gorbachev who was the last communist leader and Premier of the Soviet Union. Now, not necessarily in rebuttle, American editor of Newsweek magazine Evan Thomas says that President Obama is “sort of God.” (text and video) Are these two statements compatible or must we assume that someone is wrong? Either way, the dynamic of opinion regarding our 44th President is very interesting.

Look at this photo carefully. It’s not a drawing. It’s a photo taken from a 70 foot tower On This Date in 1918 by Arthur Mole. He got some 21,000 soldiers at Camp Sherman in Chillicothe, Ohio to stand in formation such that it looked like President Wilson from his perch above. It seems like to me these guys were supposed to be “army training” as Bill Murray said in Stripes. But, somehow they found time to fill in a carefully detailed outline on the ground. Mole then got a megaphone and barked instructions. One soldier was so excited about standing around for the photo that he wrote his mother, “Hey Mom! I was part of President Wilson’s left eyebrow today.” I guess it was a nice diversion to the prospect of going “over there” to fight World War I. Then again, maybe they never went overseas because the war was over by the end of the year and Mole went on to use thousands of soldiers to pose for numerous patriotic pictures. I can hear it now, “what did you do in the Great War, Grandpa?….I stood around and represented a dot on huge human portraits!” It’s kinda silly but kinda cool too. Mole inspired innovative ideas in photography in the 20th century. Here are some other photos that he took…all with soldiers standing in the proper place. Click on each thumbnail to get the full photo. Remember, a lot of this was done in the first quarter of the 20th century.

SPC Convective Outlook Thur to Fri AM

SPC Severe Wind Probability

Weather Bottom Line:  As it turns out, that little appendage that I referred to on Wednesday morning kinda blew up after the sun came up and we had some pretty hefty rain.  Snow White and I had a tree get hit by lightning about 150 feet ahead of us as we pulled into a driveway.  It lit up orangish, reddish, pinkish and a puff of smoke came up from its base.  I went to examine the tree though and found no evidence of a lightning strike.  Good thing for us we were in the Bob Mobile.  But, it does reinforce that its not  a good idea to be running around in the rain.  Lightning is one of the leading weather killers.  Anyway, I saw someone on TV Wednesday night say we may have a rough night due to storms in Indiana.  Well, this person was right but for the wrong reason.  That guy was lifting northeast.  It was the guy down in the bootheel of Missouri that came through as it weakened around 2:30 am that got us.  Decent lightning.  Nit and Wit, my kitties, snuggled up with Snow White and I as they are not too fond of lightning and thunder. 

SPC Severe Hail Probability

You will note on the SPC Convective outlook that our region remains in the slight risk for severe t’storms.  There is one more wave that will move up along the boundary late Thursday and Thursday night.  Possible, but not necessarily probable for us to get some bad stuff.  Guess is that the orientation of the boundary may shift the threat to our southeast.  But, I can certainly see elevated storms being a potential problem with gusty winds being drawn down and hail being an issue.  Afternoon clouds will inhibit stuff but as the shortwave moves through it may initiate activity elsewhere and bring it through.  In fact, I will be surprised if we don’t get at least another round of rain. 

Once the wave moves along, the boundary will get energized in its wake and drift South.  That should give us a decent Friday.  Saturday, some of the models want to introduce some return activity here but I’m going along with the solution that a wave on Saturday is approaching and grabbing the front to bring back toward us from the Southwest.  T’storms late Saturday and into Sunday would be the outlook.  Then, we’re somewhat unsettled again for the first part of next week.

SPC tornado probability

One note….the Canadian model seems to want to create a tropical low and move it into the Gulf in a few days.  The other long range models don’t have that and it would be a bit odd to take a guy through the Yucatan Channel and into the Gulf this time of year.  But its out there.  Doubt its real, but who knows.  A squirrel finds an acorn every now and then.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1139 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2009
  
   VALID 111630Z – 121200Z
  
   …THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
   TONIGHT FROM N TX ENEWD TO VA…
  
   …THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR THE
   HIGH PLAINS OF ERN CO/WRN KS…
  
   …MIDDLE TN EWD TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON…
   A WELL-DEFINED MCV IS MOVING EWD OVER MIDDLE TN AS OF LATE MORNING.
   THIS SYSTEM IS ACCOMPANIED BY A NARROW BELT OF 40-50 KT MID LEVEL
   FLOW…AND IS PRECEDED BY A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.
   EXPECT THE CONVECTION WITH THE MCV TO PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON
   WHILE SPREADING EWD OVER ERN TN AND ADJACENT AREAS…WITH A
   CONTINUED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.
   ADDITIONALLY…THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED/BRIEF
   TORNADOES WHERE THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER INTERSECTS AND MOVES EWD
   ALONG A RESIDUAL E-W OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS ERN TN…IN THE WAKE OF
   THE WEAKENING CLUSTER NOW APPROACHING THE BLUE RIDGE.
  
   …S CENTRAL PA SWD INTO CENTRAL VA/NRN NC THIS AFTERNOON…
   THE REMNANTS OF A WEAKENING OVERNIGHT MCS ARE CROSSING THE BLUE
   RIDGE AS OF 16Z…AND THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS SRN
   PA/MD/CENTRAL VA/NRN NC THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.  MID LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES ARE RATHER POOR OVER THE REGION /AOB 6 C/KM BASED ON 12Z
   SOUNDINGS/…BUT SOME SURFACE HEATING AND A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
   WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT
   DESTABILIZATION /MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG FOR SEVERE
   STORMS…ESPECIALLY ACROSS VA AND NC.  THE NWD EXTENT OF THE
   STRONGER DESTABILIZATION COULD BE LIMITED BY PERSISTENT CLOUDS FROM
   NRN VA INTO SRN PA.  MEANWHILE…STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL FLOW
   ACCOMPANIES THE REMNANT CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MOVING OVER VA FROM THE
   W…AND IT APPEARS PROBABLE THAT NEW STORMS WILL FORM THIS AFTERNOON
   IN A N-S BAND ALONG THE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AS IT PROGRESSES
   EWD ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.  DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE
   THREAT WITH BOWING SEGMENTS…THOUGH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO
   BE POSSIBLE.
  
   …NW/N CENTRAL INTO E TX THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT…
   ONGOING CONVECTION IN N/NE TX IS BEING MAINTAINED BY WAA ABOVE THE
   SHALLOW COLD POOL GENERATED BY OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING STORMS.
   THE 12Z FWD SOUNDING SHOWED STRONG ELEVATED INSTABILITY /MUCAPE IN
   EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG/…WHILE OTHER SOUNDINGS TO THE S REVEALED A
   LITTLE STRONGER CAP.  THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
   SHORT-TERM EVOLUTION OF THE STORMS GIVEN AN EXPECTED WEAKENING OF
   THE SWLY LLJ THAT HAS BEEN FEEDING THIS CONVECTION.
   HOWEVER…DIURNAL WEAKENING OF THE CAP THROUGH DAYTIME HEATING AND
   NEW COLD POOL GENERATION COULD ALSO ALLOW STORMS TO ROOT CLOSER TO
   THE SURFACE AND BEGIN TO PROPAGATE SEWD AS AN MCS WITH DAMAGING
   WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
  
   FARTHER W/NW…A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS SAGGING SWD ACROSS THE TX
   PANHANDLE INTO NW TX…WHERE THE BOUNDARY INTERSECTS THE WWD
   EXTENSION OF THE OUTFLOW FROM THE N TX STORMS.  STRONG SURFACE
   HEATING AND A NARROW CORRIDOR OF UPPER 50S TO MID 60S BOUNDARY LAYER
   DEW POINTS COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS
   AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE SE TX PANHANDLE ESEWD INTO NW TX.
    DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
   SUPERCELLS…AND A TORNADO OR TWO COULD OCCUR WITH STORMS RIDING
   ESEWD ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT WHERE SOMEWHAT
   RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL COINCIDE
   THIS EVENING.
  
   …ERN CO/WRN KS THROUGH TONIGHT…
   MOIST POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CO TODAY AS
   LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO MORE ELY/SELY IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF
   A MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ENEWD FROM UT/AZ.  LAPSE RATES ARE
   RELATIVELY POOR OVER THE HIGH PLAINS IN THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT…BUT
   DAYTIME HEATING IN CLOUD BREAKS AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS IN THE
   LOW-MID 50S WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG.
   THIS MODEST INSTABILITY…IN COMBINATION WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
   AOA 50 KT AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR LATER THIS
   AFTERNOON/EVENING…WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW SUPERCELLS FORMING
   JUST E OF THE MOUNTAINS AND MOVING EWD ONTO THE PLAINS OF ERN CO.
   ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MOST COMMON
   THREAT…THOUGH A COUPLE OF TORNADOES CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED THIS
   AFTERNOON/EVENING BEFORE CONVECTION BECOMES SLIGHTLY ELEVATED
   FARTHER E INTO WRN KS.
  
   ..THOMPSON/SMITH.. 06/11/2009

Miss California Fired! June 10, 2009

Miss CA Gets Fired!

Will this be the end of Civilization as we know it? Read the story links below!

Yahoo
SFIST

Huffington Post
NYDaily News  

CitizenLink
TMZ…The REAL IMPORTANT NEWS!

Help The Poor-Get a Tax Deduction-Win a 2100 Sq Ft Home! Anti-War Secretary of State Resigns June 10, 2009

 

Get These Kids Clean Water, Take a Deduction and Maybe Win a Home

Tax decuctable donation gives chance for a new house!  (Go For It! Click HERE!) A couple is selling everything they own to help others.  Lindsey and Bowin Tichenor are taking their 3 small children and moving to the Dominican Republic to help bring the impovershed nation clean drinking water.  The government can’t or won’t do it, so these folks are dedicating their lives to do so.  To help support their mission, they are raffling their home.  (It’s a Suburban 2100 sq ft home  Click Here for Specs)  I’m guessing that because the money raised will go to their mission, essentially you are making a donation and then you get a chance for the home and that is why they tell me the purchase of a chance is tax-deductable.  Go for it.  Odds of winning are going to the casino.  And you are helping others to serve the needs of people in need. Doesn’t matter what  your political party is, your religion or even if you have a religion.  You can help others who are helping their fellow man, you get a tax deduction and you may end up with a house.  You say you care about the poor? Put your money where your mouth is!

Bryan Could Often Get Worked Up in Speeches. The Guy to the Right Looks like He's seen This Act Before

Probably the Closest Photo You'll Find of Bryan Smiling

On This Date in History: On this date in 1915, Secretary of State William Jennings Bryan resigned. In May of that year, the Germans had sunk the Lusitania, one of the worlds largest ships. Over 1200 perished, including some 128 Americans. Bryan sent a nicey-pooh note to the Germans saying how he wanted to stregnthen relations and such. I suppose today, Jennings would have  gone to the UN.  Nevertheless, the Germans responded saying that they were justified in torpedoing the passenger ship, claiming it was carrying arms. Years later, historians have established the ship was indeed carrying a small amount of armaments.

Now, Bryan was big-time anti-war.  He had run for President a few times and lost each time but supported President Wilson because the President had run on a platform of peace.  He supported Wilson’s declaration of US neutrality.  But, Bryan saw that the advances in technology had made traditional aspects of neutrality dangerous.  He thought that a position of neutrality should be modified to restrict the travel of Americans into war zones because it was impossible to protect US citizens when there are submarines running around.  But, Wilson insisted on tradition.   

Wilson and Bryan Jan 1913

So, when the Lusitania went down, President Woodrow Wilson responded with a terse note demanding that Germany curtail its practice of unrestricted warfare. Bryan urged the President to send a similar letter to the British for its violation of neutral rights.  I suppose that would be “fair” except that any violations the Brits had did not include the sinking of ocean liners filled with passengers  Wilson instead sent a second letter to the Germans.  Bryan, fearing the letter represented an escalation toward war, resigned instead of signing the letter. The Germans responded by scaling back their U-Boat practices through 1916. When they started again in 1917, Wilson eventually asked for, and received, a declaration of war against Germany. The Yanks indeed did come and turned the tables of the conflict against the Axis powers and the war eventually came to an end.

 

By the way, the man who took Bryan’s place was Robert Lansing….no relation to the actor, seen here as Mr. Gary Seven from a famous Star Trek episode. The actor’s real name was Robert Howell Brown. He took his stage name from the town of Lansing, Michigan.

Today's Convective Outlook SPC

Surface Forecast Wednesday Evening

Weather Bottom Line:  One certainty that shows up when looking at the vertical profile progs is that we will remain unstable for the next few days.  There is a boundary stalled to our north and so waves will run along the boundary and enhance the risk for rain and potentially the risk for strong storms.  As I had indicated previously,  a wave did in fact move to our north Wednesday morning with the appendage sticking down enough to provide some rain and t’storms just north of Louisville but not enough to engulf the entire area.  I’m supposing that as the wave moves by, the stationary boundary will sag a shade farther south in its wake.  So, the next waves that come along will track a bit farther South.  Timing and exact route of these waves will remain problematic and will probably only be known when they actually initiate storms.

Tornado Probability Through Thu AM

Nevertheless, the NAM puts a wave on us around Midnight Wednesday night.   The parameters are pretty healthy then and the NAM even ramps up the SWEAT index to near the 400 threshold for an enhanced twister risk.  It also has even stronger feedback for Thursday.  The GFS advertises more consistent rain chances throughout the day but takes its parameters highest throughout Thursday and even Friday.  Probably a pretty good idea to keep abreast of the weather the next few days.  By late Friday, the front is progged to sag South.  Some data suggests that another wave forms in the Southern Plains on Friday and moves it into the Ohio Valley on Saturday, thus dragging the front back our way.  Should that occur, then we may be vulnerable to more rain and possibly strong storms.  We’ll wait to see what happens. So, don’t panic, but keep your ears on.  Biggest risk the next few days will be for wind and hail but one cannot discount the tornado risk as super cells may pop up on an isolated basis.

Severe Hail Probability Through Thu AM

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0741 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2009
  
   VALID 101300Z – 111200Z
  
   …THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS TO
   ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL
   APPALACHIANS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT…
  
   …SYNOPSIS…
   BROAD BELT OF 40-50KT W/WSWLY FLOW EXTENDS FROM COAST-TO-COAST TODAY
  

Severe Wind Probability Through Thu AM

 BETWEEN LARGE SCALE TROUGHING OVER CANADA AND NRN BORDER
   STATES…AND SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OVER MEXICO/SRN TX AND THE ADJACENT
   GULF OF MEXICO. NRN PERIPHERY OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL
   BECOME SUPPRESSED ACROSS THE SRN GREAT PLAINS TODAY AS A SHORT WAVE
   TROUGH EJECTS NEWD FROM AZ/NM.
  
   AT THE SFC…A COMPLEX QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE…FRACTURED IN
   A NUMBER OF AREAS BY DIURNAL/EPISODIC CONVECTION…EXTENDS FROM ERN
   CO FRONT RANGE SEWD TO KS/OK…AND THEN EWD TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY.
   THE FRONT BECOMES A BIT MORE DIFFUSE FROM THE OH VALLEY ACROSS THE
   APPALACHIANS TO THE EAST COAST.
   
  

Convective Outlook Thursday SPC

 TSTM DEVELOPMENT AND EVOLUTION ALONG/NEAR THE ENTIRE EXTENT OF THIS
   FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE MODULATED BY SEVERAL COMPLEX FACTORS TODAY
   INCLUDING: 1)FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORT WAVE
   TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST…AS WELL AS A WEAKER LEADING
   LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM MO EWD TO THE OH VALLEY…2)
   PLACEMENT/LOCATION OF RESIDUAL STORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND THEIR
   LOCATION WITH RESPECT TO POTENTIAL FRONTAL WAVES/ENHANCED DEEP-LAYER
   ASCENT…AND 3) LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXES/DISCONTINUITIES INCLUDING
   RESIDUAL DRYLINE INFLUENCE ANALYZED ACROSS TX PNHDL/WRN OK…AND
   DEEPER MOISTURE SURGE SITUATED FROM TX NWD/NEWD TO THE OZARKS.
  
   …SRN PLAINS…
   IT IS DIFFICULT TO BE TOO SPECIFIC WITH REGARD TO STORM
   DEVELOPMENT/CHARACTER ACROSS THIS LARGE REGION TODAY GIVEN
   COMPLEXITIES ALREADY MENTIONED. LARGE SCALE LIFT WITH THE MID/UPPER
   TROUGH EJECTING FROM AZ/NM WAS ALREADY CONTRIBUTING TO ISOLATED
   STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER A BROAD REGION. RECENT DEVELOPMENT WAS ALSO
   INCREASING ALONG CONFLUENCE ZONE FROM TRANS-PECOS AREA NEWD ALONG
   THE CAPROCK WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE WAS OVERCOMING DRIER AIR
   IN THE WAKE OF DRYLINE SURGE THAT OCCURRED ON TUESDAY.
  
   STRENGTHENING BACKGROUND ASCENT ON THE LARGE SCALE WILL SUPPORT AN
   INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY. WITH SURFACE LOW
   PRESSURE FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS TX/OK…AND THE FRONTAL ZONE
   SITUATED ACROSS THE PNHDLS AND NRN OK…EXPECT MORE VIGOROUS AND
   ORGANIZED STORMS TO BECOME MOST PREVALENT NEAR THESE FEATURES AND
   BOUNDARIES. STORM INTENSITY IN TX MAY BE LIMITED BY SUBSTANTIAL
   CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. A CORRIDOR OF
   STRONGER SURFACE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION MAY OCCUR FROM TX PNHDL
   ACROSS WRN OK…AND NEAR THE FRONT IN OK/SRN KS WHERE LATEST
   SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS MORE LIMITED CLOUD COVER EXISTS THIS
   MORNING.
  
   STORMS SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED AS MID LEVEL FLOW
   STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE ENTIRE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE DAY. STORM
   SCALE AND MESOSCALE INFLUENCES YET TO DEVELOP/OCCUR WILL PLAY A
   SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN HOW AND WHERE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS REALIZED.
   IN ADDITION TO WIND…LARGE HAIL…AND SOME TORNADO
   POTENTIAL…UPSCALE ORGANIZATION INTO AN MCS OR TWO APPEARS LIKELY
   FROM KS TO TX LATER TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
   HIGHER SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES MIGHT BE DEPICTED IN LATER
   OUTLOOKS AS STORMS INCREASE AND ORGANIZE THROUGH LATER TODAY.
  
   …MIDWEST/LOWER OH VALLEY…
   A ZONE OF ENHANCED STORM POTENTIAL MAY BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM MO/IL
   EWD ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY. LIFT WITH THE
   LOW-AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCE NOW DRIVING STORMS ACROSS SERN MO WILL
   CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE RESIDUAL
   FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION. DESPITE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS
   ACROSS THE REGION ATTM…POCKETS OF GREATER SURFACE-BASED
   DESTABILIZATION APPEAR POSSIBLE GIVEN RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
   PERSISTENT PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES. EFFECTIVE FLOW AS FORECAST
   WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS WITH HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE
   POTENTIAL.
  
   …EAST…
   ANOTHER DAY OF DIURNAL/TERRAIN-INDUCED DEEP CONVECTION IS FORECAST
   FROM PA/WV SWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. STORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE
   ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EARLY AIDED BY DIFFERENTIAL
   HEATING…BROADLY DIFFLUENT MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW…AND WEAK HEIGHT
   FALLS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL THEN MOVE EAST INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS WHERE
   STRONG HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION WILL CONTRIBUTE DOWNBURST AND
   SEVERE HAIL POTENTIAL. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 20-30KT
   INDICATES PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE SHOULD BE MULTICELLULAR.
   HOWEVER…SOME LOCAL/GREATER ORGANIZATION IS POSSIBLE AS STORM
   MERGERS GENERATE EXPANDING/STRONG COLD POOLS.
  
   …HIGH PLAINS…
   MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL AGAIN AID STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CO/SERN
   WY AND ADJACENT AREAS OF NE/KS TODAY WITHIN SUFFICIENTLY SHEARED
   FLOW FOR SUPERCELLS. WHILE LIFT WITH THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
   TROUGH MAY LEAD TO MORE NUMEROUS STORMS COMPARED TO PRIOR
   DAYS…INCREASING CLOUD COVER WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY ALSO ACT TO
   INHIBIT GREATER DESTABILIZATION. NONETHELESS…PRESENCE OF LARGE
   SCALE ASCENT…LOCALLY STRONGER LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALONG RESIDUAL
   FRONTAL ZONE…AND STEEP LAPSE RATES…SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST A FEW
   SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND HIGH WIND POTENTIAL. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
   THIS CONVECTION COULD CONGEAL INTO A SMALL MCS AND MOVE ACROSS WRN
   KS/NE LATER TONIGHT.
  
   ..CARBIN/HURLBUT.. 06/10/2009

Hope and Change? Russians Say US is Marxist, Obama New Gorbachev! Rapid City 1972 Flood June 9, 2009

Obama the New Gorbachev? Pravda Thinks So. What and Odd Turn of Events

A Few Days ago, we examined whether or not a Marx Brother was in charge of General Motors. Ironically, now the former Soviet official newspaper Pravda, which is now supposedly an independent Russian publication, is saying that President Obama is the US version of the Soviet Union’s Mikhail Gorbachev. Hmmm….Russian comparing the US President to the former Communist Soviet Premier? This is on the heels of Pravda saying deriding the United States for becoming a Marxist Nation. Which Marx Brother are we following, Harpo, Chico, Zeppo or Groucho? When the Berlin Wall fell, do you ever think anyone would have predicted this turn of events?

Much of City Washed Away

On This Date In History:

In June 1972, warm moist air from the Gulf of Mexico made it all the way to South Dakota. A cold front came down and 15 inches of rain fell on the Black Hills in just 6 hours. Now, the Pactola Dam was built in 1952 and it created flood control and a resevoir that made the region much more habitable. Ten miles away, Rapid City grew to nearly 50,000 and a large residential neighborhood sprung up. Trouble was, the neighborhood was situated in the flood plain. On This Date In 1972 after the torrential rains came, a bunch of debris clogged the spillway at the dam. The dam collapsed and water was sent rushing through the neighborhood and through Rapid City. Some 238 people lost their lives that night. Most of the homeowners had no insurance. Today the dam has been rebuilt. I suppose it was an earthen dam in 1972 as it is today. There’s one big difference. There is no residential community in the flood plain any more. Today it’s a golf course. It’s always amazing how when we look back at historical events that what seems like such an obviously stupid idea today was such a good idea back when it was first proposed. It often seems to take a tragedy to wake people from their slumber and remember one of US Grant’s favorite lines: “Man Proposes and God Disposes.”

Here’s a link to a site about the new and improved dam

SPC Convective Outlook for June 10 2009

Weather Bottom Line:  This is an update to similar post earlier.  The story is about the same though the SPC expanded the severe risk area markedly.  I suspect this is in response to the divergence in model solutions as there is a consistency of a strong short rolling around to the north and then that secondary short moving out of the plains and into the region.  But, its very difficult to nail down exactly where the second short will go and even the extent of the northern, stronger short.  Guess here is that the enhanced humidity level, warm conditions and increased instability will lend itself to supporting strong storms wherever the kicker short comes through.  Otherwise, there will be the risk of scattered convectively induced activity.  While I’m still of the mind that the secondary short may be mainly south of our area, I have some concern of the extent of the instability of the northern short.  Further, the secondary short may very a shade from my suspicions and so a variance of say 30 miles at initiation will make a lot of difference downstream.  Tornadic threat would most likely be minimal as support conditions for such activity will probably be limited, but local conditions can always produce some monkeybusiness.  Biggest threat will be for hail and strong winds dragged down from aloft.

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1220 PM CDT TUE JUN 09 2009
  
   VALID 101200Z – 111200Z
  
   …THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM TX/OK/KS EWD INTO THE MID
   OH/TN VALLEY REGION…
  
   …SYNOPSIS…
   A BROAD ZONE OF ENHANCED/WSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO
   CONTINUE EAST OF THE ROCKIES THIS PERIOD…BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH
   OVER CENTRAL CANADA AND A RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WRN GULF OF
   MEXICO.  WITHIN THIS ZONE OF FASTER WSWLY FLOW…SEVERAL SHORT-WAVE
   TROUGHS WILL MIGRATE ENEWD…CONTRIBUTING TO A BROAD ZONE OF
   CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOCUSED INVOF A SURFACE FRONT FORECAST TO LIE
   FROM THE OH VALLEY REGION WSWWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE
   PERIOD.
  
   …KS/OK EWD INTO THE MID MS/LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS…
   SOMEWHAT COMPLEX FORECAST THIS PERIOD FROM ERN KS/ERN OK EWD INTO
   THE TN/OH VALLEY REGION…AS AT LEAST TWO EPISODES OF CONVECTION/MCS
   SHOULD SHIFT EWD ACROSS ERN KS/MO AND INTO THE MID MS/LOWER OH/TN
   VALLEY REGION THROUGH THE DAY ONE PERIOD.  SEVERE POTENTIAL –
   PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL — WITH THE ONGOING
   CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS KY/TN AND VICINITY THROUGH
   THE DAY…ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR NEW DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE
   PERIPHERY OF ONGOING STORMS.  MEANWHILE FARTHER W ACROSS SRN MO AND
   INTO ERN KS/ERN OK…QUESTIONS EXIST REGARDING BOTH AIRMASS QUALITY
   AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE SWD/CONVECTIVELY-ALTERED LOCATION OF
   THE SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THIS REGION. 
  
   ATTM…IT APPEARS THAT SOME HEATING/DESTABILIZATION MAY OCCUR ACROSS
   SRN MO AND VICINITY…IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OR
   CLUSTERS WHICH SHOULD BE SHIFTING EWD INTO THE MID MS/TN/OH VALLEYS.
    NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR INVOF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WITH
   SOME WWD REDEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET LATER IN THE DAY WITHIN
   THIS REGION OF POTENTIAL DESTABILIZATION.  WITH MODERATELY-STRONG
   DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD…AMPLE INSTABILITY WOULD SUPPORT SEVERE
   STORMS — WITH SUPERCELLS AND/OR LINEARLY-ORGANIZED CONVECTION
   LIKELY.  WHILE A FEW TORNADOES WOULD BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE FRONT IF
   CELLULAR STORM MODE COULD BE MAINTAINED…MORE LIKELY POTENTIAL
   WOULD BE FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL — ESPECIALLY WITH LIKELY
   EVOLUTION INTO A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER/MCS THROUGH THE EVENING. 
  
   …N TX SWWD TOWARD THE TX BIG BEND REGION…
   THE NAM AND GFS DIFFER IN TIMING OF FEATURES MOVING THROUGH MODERATE
   WSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW…AND THUS IN HANDLING OF THE SURFACE PATTERN
   ACROSS TX.  THE NAM — WITH A WEAK FEATURE PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS W
   TX THROUGH THE AFTERNOON — DEVELOPS A WEAK SURFACE LOW NEAR THE TX
   BIG BEND…AND ASSOCIATED/WEAK SELYS AT THE SURFACE ACROSS PARTS OF
   NRN AND WRN TX.  MEANWHILE…THE GFS PROGS A STRONGER FEATURE TO
   MOVE OUT OF NM AND INTO THE TX PANHANDLE/WRN OK BY LATE AFTERNOON.
   THUS — THE GFS SURFACE LOW RESIDES OVER SWRN OK DURING THE
   AFTERNOON…WITH MUCH MORE VEERED/SWLY SURFACE WINDS S OF THE LOW
   OVER THE WRN HALF OF TX BEHIND AN EWD-MIXING DRYLINE.
  
   THESE DIFFERENCES WOULD RESULT IN A MUCH GREATER SEVERE POTENTIAL IN
   THE NAM SCENARIO…WITH MORE NUMEROUS STORMS DEVELOPING OVER
   PORTIONS OF WRN TX WITHIN A MUCH MORE FAVORABLY-SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
    ATTM…WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION — WHICH WOULD BE FOR A
   LESSER SEVERE THREAT WITH LESS NUMEROUS STORMS DEVELOPING FARTHER E.
    WHILE A 15%/SLIGHT RISK FORECAST WILL BE MAINTAINED…WILL SHIFT
   SEVERE PROBABILITIES SLIGHTLY WWD AS A HEDGE IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
   NAM SCENARIO.
  
   …MID-ATLANTIC REGION…
   MODERATE DESTABILIZATION IS FORECAST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
   AHEAD OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/CONVERGENCE AXIS EXPECTED ACROSS
   VA/NC AND VICINITY.  THOUGH DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD WILL BE
   MODEST…PULSE OR WEAK MULTICELL STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP INVOF THE
   SURFACE TROUGH — ACCOMPANIED BY A LOW-END THREAT FOR HAIL/WIND.
   CONVECTION AND ANY ASSOCIATED SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD GRADUALLY
   DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING.
  
   ..GOSS.. 06/09/2009

Russian Press: U.S. A Marxist Nation, Obama New Gorbachev; Remember When Rapid City Washed Away? June 9, 2009

Obama the New Gorbachev? Pravda Thinks So. What and Odd Turn of Events

 A Few Days ago, we examined whether or not a Marx Brother was in charge of General Motors. Ironically, now the former Soviet official newspaper Pravda, which is now supposedly an independent Russian publication, is saying that President Obama is the US version of the Soviet Union’s Mikhail Gorbachev. Hmmm….Russian comparing the US President to the former Communist Soviet Premier? This is on the heels of Pravda saying deriding the United States for becoming a Marxist Nation.  Which Marx Brother are we following, Harpo, Chico, Zeppo or Groucho?  When the Berlin Wall fell, do you ever think anyone would have predicted this turn of events?

Much of City Washed Away

On This Date In History:

In June 1972, warm moist air from the Gulf of Mexico made it all the way to South Dakota.  A cold front came down and 15 inches of rain fell on the Black Hills in just 6 hours.  Now, the Pactola Dam was built in 1952 and it created flood control and a resevoir that made the region much more habitable.  Ten miles away, Rapid City grew to nearly 50,000 and a large residential neighborhood sprung up.  Trouble was, the neighborhood was situated in the flood plain.  On This Date In 1972 after the torrential rains came, a bunch of debris clogged the spillway at the dam.   The dam collapsed and water was sent rushing through the neighborhood and through Rapid City.  Some 238 people lost their lives that night.  Most of the homeowners had no insurance.  Today the dam has been rebuilt.  I suppose it was an earthen dam in 1972 as it is today.  There’s one big difference.  There is no residential community in the flood plain any more.  Today it’s a golf course.  It’s always amazing how when we look back at historical events that what seems like such an obviously stupid idea today was such a good idea back when it was first proposed.  It often seems to take a tragedy to wake people from their slumber and remember one of US Grant’s favorite lines: “Man Proposes and God Disposes.”

Here’s a link to a site about the new and improved dam

SPC Convective Outlook June 10, 2009

Weather Bottom Line:  The strong storms that the SPC was looking for near our area did stay together on Monday evening.  But, they tracked south toward Paducah.  Snow White and I took the time to scull on Monday and my friend Bob Crane was on hand to watch me get all bent out of shape because the foot pads were in the wrong place and my seat kept coming off the runners.  Snow White chastised me for my choice of verbiage, which I also used when I almost tipped over on the river when the waves picked up.  Bob Crane laughed and the turtles were silent.

With humidity levels increasing, we may get an isolated t’storm or two on Tuesday afternoon.  But,  Wednesday,  there will be a shortwave wandering through the flow from the plains.  The track of the short will be the key but it is possible that we may see an enhanced risk for t’storms.  Preliminarily, the SPC has us in the slight risk area.  Won’t be surprised to see it miss us to the south and be in a fading mode, as the Canadian and GFS 12Z model runs suggest.  However, the NAM creates a huge shortwave right over  the top of us which means on Wednesday night we’d get some action.   I’m a little skeptical though because the NAM’s solution has this thing blowing up late in the day instead of fading.  Nevertheless, it is worth noting and watching. 

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0225 AM CDT MON JUN 08 2009
  
   VALID 101200Z – 111200Z
  
   …THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SRN PLNS TO THE OH
   VLY…
  
   …SYNOPSIS…
   SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE A SRN STREAM TROUGH
   ACROSS THE GRT BASIN/SWRN STATES AND PROMINENT NRN BRANCH UPR LOW
   ALONG THE NRN TIER OF THE COUNTRY.  A FAIRLY INTENSE SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH EMANATING FROM THE FORMER FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO TRAVEL
   ACROSS THE CNTRL PLNS…PHASING WITH THE NRN UPR LOW BY WEDNESDAY
   AFTN/EVE.  RESULTANT BAND OF MODEST HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD ENE
   ALONG A SFC BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT SHOULD RESIDE FROM THE SRN PLNS TO
   THE OH VLY REGION.  THIS REGION WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR EPISODIC TSTM
   CLUSTERS…SOME SVR FOR THE MID-WEEK PD.
  
   …SRN PLNS TO THE OH VLY…
   ELEVATED TSTM CLUSTERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   THE MID-SOUTH/MID-MS VLY AT 12Z WED.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
   SPREAD DOWNSTREAM INTO THE MID-OH VLY WITH TIME.  SVR THREAT WILL
   LIKELY DEVELOP UPSTREAM WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVE WHERE PERSISTENT SSWLY
   LLJ TRANSPORTS A WARM/UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER NWD INTO THE MID-MS
   VLY AND SRN PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST.  AT THE SAME TIME…RELATIVELY
   WARM MID-LVL TEMPERATURES WILL SPREAD DOWNSTREAM IN THE WARM
   SECTOR…PROVIDING A CAP.
  
   WHILE HEATING ALONE MAY NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO BREAK THE CAP…AS
   AFOREMENTIONED HEIGHTS FALLS SPREAD ENE…TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM
   INVOF A SFC LOW/FRONT FROM IL/IND BY MID-AFTN…THEN EXPAND SWWD
   ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU AND EVENTUALLY PARTS OF OK.  OTHER STORMS
   MAY FORM SWD ALONG THE DRYLINE INTO PARTS OF NWRN/WCNTRL TX.
   PRESENCE OF STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED
   SVR STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS.  ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
   ENE ACROSS THE OH VLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR
   HIGH WINDS/HAIL. 
  
   FLOW ALOFT REMAINS SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY
   ACROSS THE SRN PLNS.  HERE…WSWLY LLVL FLOW WILL FEED ANY TSTM
   CLUSTERS WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH BACKBUILDING/ELEVATED STORMS
   POSSIBLY CONTAINING HAIL.
  
   ..RACY.. 06/08/2009

Just Leave Him a Tip In Exchange For His Eternal Unrest, But Don’t Leave Him On Skid Road June 7, 2009

Skid Road Near Snoqualmie

On This Date in History:  On This Date in 1866, an Indian Chief died.  He was a chief of the Duwamish and Suquamish tribes having gained the leadership of both tribes by having a Suquamish father and a Duwamish mother.  He was born in the late 18th century and by the 1850′s, white settlers from America started setting up villages.  The chief welcomed the strangers and in homage to his kindness, the settlers named the village they set up on Puget Sound for him.  They called it Seattle.  Chief Seattle was a pretty smart guy as, even though he thought the whites would eventually eradicate his people, he figured that fighting them would only hasten their demise.  A couple of other tribes disagreed and started a war, only to surmise that Seattle was probably right all along and they too put down their weapons and made the best of the situation as they could.   

However,  Chief Seattle had a little problem.  In the Indian tradition, the mention of a dead man’s name would disturb his eternal rest and with a town bearing his name, the Chief would be quite restless in eternity.  Well, the settlers couldn’t possibly change the name of their town.  So, instead, they levied a tax on themselves to raise money for a little fund that they paid to Chief Seattle before he died as a payoff for the trouble he would be in when he passed from this world.  On June 7, 1866 Chief Seattle died thus saving the taxpayers of Seattle money.

Skid Road Seattle

Skid Road Near Utsalady

Here’s an interesting side note on Seattle.  They used to skid logs down a chute on the main street to get them to the sawmill.  The road came to be known as “skid road”.  Later when the town’s main center moved north, the road was left in a dilapidated part of town filled with drunkards and derelicts.  The part of town went from being known as “skid road” to “skid row” and today the term “skid row” has made its way into the American lexicon for the dilapidated area of any town in the country.

Weather Bottom Line:  The bottom line is that it’s a wonderful Sunday and I don’t feel like getting too involved in the weather.  Quite warm but pretty low humidity and a nice breeze. Snow White and I are going to the Filson to hear former Senator and Presidential Candidate George McGovern talk about his new book about Abraham Lincoln.  I can’t imagine that he’s come up with anything new about the 16th President except his perspective, which may be interesting considering his long life and career.  So, Phooey on the weather.  It looks like the SPC is interested in some worthwhile weather just to our west on Monday and some of the storms may live long enough to get close to us Monday night.  But, I’m not worrying about it now.  Just a guess…we won’t have support to maintain the storms and they would get here at night if they did arrive.  But, its a guess.  We’ll look closer at it tomorrow. 

CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1230 PM CDT SUN JUN 07 2009
  
   VALID 081200Z – 091200Z
  
   …THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST TO
   PORTIONS OF OK/AR…
  
   …SYNOPSIS…
   A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN CANADIAN
   PROVINCES AND NORTHERN ROCKIES ON MONDAY…WHILE A LEAD SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH…AMIDST A BROAD CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW REGIME…PIVOTS
   NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.
   PRIMARY COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
   MIDWEST/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY…WHILE THE PLAINS PORTION OF THE
   FRONT SLOWLY SLIPS SOUTHWARD AND STALLS ACROSS OK.
  
   …MIDWEST TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS…
   SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
   MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES VICINITY. MUCH OF MONDAYS DETAILS DEPEND
   ON EARLY DAY CONVECTION/CLOUD COVER…BUT IT SEEMS PROBABLE THAT A
   DIURNAL UPSWING IN DEEP CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/INTENSITY WILL OCCUR
   MONDAY AFTERNOON ALONG/AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT
   AND/OR PREFRONTAL TROUGH.
  
   THE PARENT UPPER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM
   THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON…BUT MODERATELY STRONG WESTERLY FLOW
   ALOFT AND A BROAD MOIST/POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR WILL
   SUPPORT A SEVERE RISK ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF IL/MO/INDIANA
   MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. A MIXED MODE OF SOME INITIAL SUPERCELLS
   WILL BE POSSIBLE…BUT OTHERWISE AN EVOLUTION TO MULTICELLULAR
   CLUSTERS/SMALL BOWING COMPLEXES SEEMS LIKELY. SEVERE HAIL AND
   DAMAGING WINDS WILL LIKELY THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. EVEN WITH A TENDENCY
   FOR VEERING/WEAKENING LOW LEVEL FLOW…A FEW TORNADOES MAY BE
   POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF IL/INDIANA…AND POTENTIALLY INTO
   LOWER MI IN VICINITY OF NORTHWARD RETREATING WARM FRONT AND
   APPROACHING SURFACE LOW. IN ADDITION TO LOWER MI…THE SEVERE THREAT
   MAY REACH PORTIONS OF WESTERN/NORTHERN KY AND WESTERN OH MONDAY
   NIGHT.
  
   FARTHER SOUTHWEST IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT…THE COVERAGE OF TSTMS
   IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MONDAY
   AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH SOUTHWESTWARD EXTENT FROM THE OZARKS INTO
   OK/NORTHERN AR. SUPPORT ON THE LARGE SCALE WILL BE MORE MARGINAL
   ACROSS THE REGION VIA NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY RISING HEIGHTS.
   NEVERTHELESS…FRONTAL FORCING AND STRONG HEATING /ESPECIALLY IN
   VICINITY OF DRYLINE INTO OK/ SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO AT LEAST
   LOCALLY ERODE THE CAP BY AROUND SUNSET. RELATIVELY STRONG MID/HIGHER
   LEVEL FLOW…STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 2000-3500 J/KG
   MLCAPE…WOULD SUPPORT SOME SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL AS THE PRIMARY
   RISK. A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET /AROUND 35-40 KT/ ACROSS
   NORTHWEST TX/WESTERN OK MAY SUPPORT A CONTINUED HAIL THREAT ACROSS
   OK/NORTHERN AR MONDAY NIGHT.
  
   …UPPER OH VALLEY/PA VICINITY TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION…
   AS A WARM FRONT RETREATS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW LEVEL
   MOISTURE INCREASES…ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD
   DEVELOP/DIURNALLY INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON…INITIALLY OVER PA AND
   THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ADJACENT WV/VA. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
   AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER TSTMS.
  
   …CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS…
   BENEATH MODERATELY STRONG CYCLONIC UPPER LOW…MID/UPPER 40S F
   SURFACE DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE AND
   DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST WY/NORTHEAST CO FRONT RANGE
   WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT MONDAY
   AFTERNOON. WITH MODEST BUOYANCY AND 40+ KT MID LEVEL FLOW…SOME
   SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. ONE OR MORE WEAKLY
   ORGANIZED TSTM CLUSTERS SHOULD DEVELOP EASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER
   OF NORTHEAST CO AND WESTERN NEB/NORTHWEST KS MONDAY
   EVENING/NIGHT…WITH THE SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
   DIMINISH AFTER DARK.
  
   ..GUYER.. 06/07/2009

Nobility of Purpose: Sacrificing Life For a Cow or Sacrificing Life For World Civilization June 6, 2009

On This Date In History:    A Case For The Cows

On this date in 1981…a train pulling cars full of people was tootling down the tracks on a rainy day in India. The engineer was Hindu, who hold cows as sacred. Just before he got to a bridge that crossed a rain swollen river, a cow appeared on the tracks. The engineer braked hard…too hard. The back half of the train with cars full of passengers slid off the tracks and into the river. Though many bodies were never found, it is estimated that 600 people died that day. Thank goodness the cow lived.

These Americans Helped Free a Continent

Ike Had a Tough Decision

A Case For Civilization

On June 6, 1944, the allies of World War II made the largest amphibious landing ever attempted on the area of the coast of France known as Normandy. The allies were successful largely because the good guys’ meteorologists were better than the Nazi meteorologists.  The weather had been atrocious causing the allies to postpone the invasion.  They had created an armada of over 5000 ships of various sizes and thousands of troops stationed in England.  June 6 was the last day that the moon would be right for weeks and it would be almost impossible to maintain the number of troops and supplies in England and also maintain secrecy.  The Nazis thought the weather was so bad there was no way for a landing so Rommel went home to his wife’s birthday party and Hitler took a sleeping pill ordering him not to be disturbed.

 

Landing Map for D-Day

Meanwhile, the American weather men said there was a brief window of opportunity to get it done.   See, the allies had an advantage in that weather generally comes to Europe from the west, north or south.  Well, the allies controlled those areas so they had data.  The Germans were to the east and so had limited information.  Remember, there were no satellites and the only observations that the Germans could get would be from their ships, submarines or planes with some data available from neutral nations.  But, by 1944, the Luftwaffe was greatly depleted and spent most of its time over the mainland defending “Fortress Europe.”  The Nazi  surface navy wasn’t ever very formidable and much of what had been in service had been destroyed by the allies, mainly the Royal Navy.  Now, they did still have submarines  but they too were spending more and more time under water as they were getting their asses handed to them and probably didn’t have too much time to make weather reports when they did surface.  Even when they did, it was only surface observations as I doubt they took the time to launch a weather balloon. 

So, General Eisenhower gambled and won and so did the good guys. So, chalk one up for the weather man!!

Omaha Beach June 6, 1944

Today, we have public leaders running around making speeches in which they apologize to other nations for America’s actions.  They do not mention how we’ve come to the rescue in recent years of the Muslim population in the former Yugoslavia.  It was the Americans who led the rescue of the Islamic country of Kuwait.  They don’ t mention that it was the Americans who came to the aid of the Muslims in Afghanistan against the Soviets.  Some Brits protest against America for some of our foreign policy, yet they either forget or are ignorant of the fact that it was America who provided the armaments and raw materials and food to sustain the island when Churchill and the nation bravely stood alone against Hitler.   The French complain about our actions in Iraq but forget it was the Americans who took the toughest route on D-Day at Omaha Beach and took the lead in liberating France from Nazi rule. 

Vichy Leader Pierre Laval (with Hitler) was executed after the War

It should be noted that many of their French countrymen collaborated with the Nazis and set up the Vichy Government as a puppet to Hitler, though many defiantly resisted both the Germans and the Vichy Government.  It was Americans who fought and died at Anzio in the effort to liberate Italy.  It was the Americans who turned the tide in World War I to end the devastating stalemate that cost millions of lives in Europe. 

This American Life Ended 65 years ago today, so that others may live

Truth is, it would be a very different and worse off world without the American soldier.  It would be a very different world without American efforts to provide hope and liberty to the oppressed, often times sacrificing its blood and treasure to make that a reality to these foreign nations.  It would be a very different world without American aid in disasters.  Our leaders fail to remind the Middle East that it was America who took the lead in providing relief to a large Muslim population that suffered after the Tsunami a few years ago.  Improved health, sanitation, lifestyle and innovation has come to the world because of America.  Yeah, we make some mistakes. But we do a lot of good.  Those crosses and stars of David that are on the cliffs of Normandy Beach are for men who gave their lives so that others could be free, not so future leaders could tell the rest of the world how bad we are or have been.

An Extra Blanket Needed?

Weather Bottom Line: A couple of days ago I said that I wouldn’t be surprised to see some temps in the 40′s on Friday morning and at least Brandenburg and Patoka Lake made the cut.  With high pressure building in there will be clear skies and no wind to speak of so I think more people will have a morning wake-up in the 40′s.  Louisville will probably be in the low 50′s.  We warm up to the low to mid 80′s on Saturday, mid to upper 80′s on Sunday. Most folks will be around 90 or so on Monday. Next chance for rain shows up Monday night or early Tuesday. 

President Obama’s Speech and History. The “other” Paul Revere. Air France Crash Weather Analysis June 4, 2009

President Greeted Warmly in Cairo

 Airbus Crash: First off, I want to start off with a very compelling analysis of the weather conditions and the possible relation to the potential cause of the crash of Air France Flight 447.  This link from Anthony Watts is elaborate, but still should be clear to even novice individuals.

President Obama’s Speech in Cairo: 

President Obama gave a speech at Cairo University in which he said the following: 

  “It was innovation in Muslim communities that developed the order of algebra, our magnetic compass and tools of navigation, our mastery of pens and printing, our understanding of how disease spreads and how it can be healed. Islamic culture has given us majestic arches and soaring spires, timeless poetry and cherished music, elegant calligraphy and places of peaceful contemplation. And throughout history, Islam has demonstrated through words and deeds the possibilities of religious tolerance and racial equality.”

 
The origin of Islam as a religion seems to go back to Muhammad in the early 7th century.  However, since Islam claims to be based on all previous prophets, then it is argued that the religion actually goes back to the beginning of man. There apparently was a schism in Islam following the death of Muhammad.  I am not an Islamic expert, but this is how I understand it.  Nevertheless, here is what my sources cite as the origins of historical items mentioned by the President: 

Euclid

Al-Khwarizmi: Greatest Mathematician of his time?

Origin of Algebra:

 Most Americans claim it is the Greeks, specifically pointing to Euclid, as insinuates a University of Hawaii professor. However, at Ball State, a professor indeed points to  Al-Khwarizmi, who was from Baghdad in the 8th and 9th centuries. Algebra as we know it was probably a developmental thing with no one individual being able to claim the title of “father of algebra.”  This historical outline indicates it was many other people in other civilizations could make the same claim. civilizations that contributed.  While it does not mention Al-Khwarizmi, it does mention the work of Brahmagupta, who was from India and lived just prior to Al-Khwarizmi.  It indicates that the work of Brahmagupta was translated into Arabic and it would make sense then that Al-Khwarizmi built on the work of the Indian mathematician.  So, someone who was probably Muslim did indeed play a part in the development of Algebra, but many

Which Way?

 The Magnetic Compass:  The magnetic compass was invented by the Chinese.  It is unclear when it was used for navigation.  This site claims that it was brought to Europe from China by Arab traders.  Other sources say that the earliest writings of the use of the compass for navigation was by the Europeans in the 12th century and the earliest known written account by an Arab was in the 13th century and he makes reference to having seen someone 40 years earlier using the device. 

Pens:this site claims the first use of an ink pen was in Egypt in the 10th century. Egypt became Islamic with the “Islamic Conquer of Egypt in 642 AD”

Printing:The Iran Chamber Society dates printing in Iran to the 17th Century. The first movable type printing press is generally known to be Gutenberg’s printing press in 1440.  There is some evidence that there was an earlier version in China.  The State University of New York at Suffolk claims that block printing also goes to Asia.

 Arches:This encyclopedia reference puts the use of arches in many cultures but its earliest reference is in Ancient Babylon in 4000BC.  Keep in mind, this was well before Muhammad was even born.  That seems to be a leap that arches were born from an Islamic culture when Islam wasn’t even established yet.  That would be like saying the Indians were Christian because many became so later.  But, keep in mind, the President did not say that arches were invented by Muslims.

Arches Used But Not Invented by Romans

Understanding of disease spread-this seems impossible to nail down.  Sorta like “jobs created or saved”

 

 Overall, I’d give the President a C+.  Some items of mention are largely not known by Americans but others are either wrong or really squishy.

Never Heard of Jack Jouett? He Saved Thomas Jefferson With a Daring Ride

On This Date In History:  Everyone knows about Paul Revere’s ride with him crying out “the British are coming” and the Old North Church “one if by land, two if by sea.”  But what about Jack Jouett?  He may have done as much or more to save the Revolution on June 4, 1781.

The Virginia Assembly was convening in Charlottesville, Va.  Jouett was a captain in the Virginia Militia and the 27-year-old was hanging around the Cuckoo Tavern in Louisa County.  There he saw part of the 250 Redcoats whom he found out were on their way to Charlottesville to capture the Assembly…including Thomas Jefferson.  Jouett took off into the night and rode 40 miles through dense wilderness that was dangerous by day and possibly deadly by night.  Unlike Revere, he didn’t travel by nice well-traveled roads.  It’s amazing that he got through because most people couldn’t have made the trip in one day let alone one night.  He arrived at Jefferson’s door at Monticello at dawn, his face swollen and scratched from branches that whacked him to and fro on his harrowing trip.  Nevertheless…when the British arrived, the Assembly was gone, including Jefferson.  So, the lesson may be that if you are trying something clever…stay out of taverns.  And, I think we should start a new rhyme about Jack Jouett.

Now listen Children now sit right back, and hear the tale of Captain Jack

He rode through the night and was slapped in the face

He rescued Jefferson from a dangerous place!

Weather Bottom Line:  As I warned for a few days….It was cool today with highs in the 60′s.  I told you that the models were much cooler than the prevailing forecasts by the TV foofs.  I was in Indy today and it was sunny.  We will get pretty good weather through the weekend.  Cool lows in the 50′s tonight and Friday night.  Wouldn’t be surprised if some folks in the northern part of the viewing area are in the upper 40′s.  Temps will moderate to mid to upper 70′s Friday. Low to mid 80′s on Saturday and mid to upper 80′s on Sunday.