Raising Taxes on Fat Cats May Hurt All of Us; Create Your Own Dimples! May 19, 2009

 

Fat Cats Don't Work...They Just Sit Around, Drink Beer, Watch TV and Count Their Money!

Hauser Law Is Very Interesting....Look at that 90% Tax Rate!

Soak The Rich is Not a Panacea: 

When the tax debate arises, we hear one side say that “we just want everyone to pay their fair share.”  The opponents to this line of thinking almost always trot out the statistics that show that in 2006 the top 1% of taxpayers paid nearly 40% of all individual income taxes paid and that the top 5% paid over 60%.  The numbers climb to over 86% for the top fourth of all tax payers.  That means that 99% of taxpayers contribute 60% of the taxes collected, 95% of taxpayers pony up 40% of  all taxes collected and that 3/4 of all taxpayers account for just 14% of taxes collected. (2008 Tax Foundation)  President Obama ran, and was elected, on a platform that pledged for no new taxes for people making less than $250,000 which in 2008 would mean that those in the top 3 or 4% of taxpayers would get their taxes raised, again referring to the Tax Foundation.  Apparently, the administration feels like the top 3 or 4 percent of taxpayers are not paying their fair share even though they already pay about half of all taxes paid.

Now, keep in mind that there is a theory out there called Hauser’s Law.  It is described below (source)

Hauser’s Law is a theory that states that in the United States, federal tax revenues will always be equal to approximately 19.5% of GDP, regardless of what the top marginal tax rate is. The theory was first suggested in 1993 by Kurt Hauser, a San Francisco investment economist, who wrote at the time, “No matter what the tax rates have been, in postwar America tax revenues have remained at about 19.5% of GDP.“.

So, if taxes are always 19.5% of GDP, then we need to increase the GDP and lead the tax rates alone, right?  But, current political thought doesn’t go along with Hauser.

NYC Jobs Vs City Tax Rates

But, here is a real world consequence.  I have a friend who has a business that employs 20 some odd people.  I gave him a hard time saying that he needs to write me a check.  He told me something interesting.  He said, “I’m not going to make less money.”  So, his solution will be to let a couple of employees go.  So, raising his taxes will cost two jobs and, two additional tax payers.   The Manhattan Institute wrote some years ago an article that showed when New York City raised taxes, city jobs were lost and city jobs were gained when taxes were lowered.

Arthur Laffer and Stephen Moore put out an op-ed piece on Monday in the Wall Street Journal(Soak the Rich, Lose the Rich-May 18, 2009 WSJ). 

Arthur Laffer

They point out that from 1998 to 2007, 1100 people a day moved from the nine highest state tax states, which includes CA, NJ, NY and OH and that most relocated to the non-income tax states that include FL, NV, NH and TX.  Over those years, the non-income tax states had 32% greater income growth and 89% more jobs created than their high tax state counterparts.  CT, NJ and NY in recent years increased the tax rate on those making over $200,000 to 5%, 8.97% (nearly a 50% increase) and 7.7% respectively.  In the years 2002-2005 those states all had a significant reduction in taxpayers in that bracket.  CT ranked 46th, New Jersey 49th and New York 50th in the percentage increase in wealthy tax filers during those years.   And remember, that is well before the current economic downturn.  These people simply moved. 

Stephen Moore

The problem here is that so many legislative issues regarding taxation seem to assume a static economy or static environment.  The truth is that there is a constant flux in any economy and the personal situations of any individual.  There are consequences to actions and sometimes they are unintended.

The article takes on the idea that lower taxes inevitably leads to cutting services to the poor, lower quality schools and lower police protection.   The authors boldly state, “they’re wrong.”

They point to New Hampshire having no sales tax or state income tax.  Yet, their schools produce the 4th highest test scores in the nation and spends $5000 less per student than New York.  They also cite the fact that California has the highest paid teachers with students who score second lowest in testing.

TX Gov. Rick Perry Competes on Global Scale

They wind up with Texas.  The Texas governor says that Tejas doesn’t just compete with other states, but with other nations and tries to create a competitive business environment to stay in the arena with the likes of China, France, Germany and Japan.  Texas is indeed a whole other country.  Texas has no state income tax yet, in 2008, created more jobs than the other 49 states combined.

The states with the highest tax rates are generally the ones in the most fiscal trouble.  Most of us won’t be affected by the current notion of taxing the highest income folks in our nation and states.  So, we don’t care and think it’s okay.  But, higher taxes on the big shots can negatively affect us all.  My friend will let two people go.  Wealthy taxpayers are leaving states meaning those states get nothing from people who were putting several dollars in state coffers.  Fewer jobs are created in states with high tax rates than those who have no state income taxes.  Don’t you think our lawmakers should think this out instead of playing to the crowd?  What sounds good in a speech isn’t necessarily a good solution to any problem.

Natural or a Goetze Creation?

Try the Dimple Maker on Any Part of Your Body!

On This Date in History:  A man in Berlin, Germany thought that dimples would be a good idea.  But, not everyone has dimples.  So, the Prussian Martin Goetze went to work on a device to make dimples. He found success and on this date in 1896, the US Patent office issued Patent No. 560,351 for a dimple maker.   In his patent, Goetze said, “In order to make the body susceptable to the production of artistic dimples, it is necessary…that the cellular tissues surrounding the spot…should be made susceptible to its production by means of massage…the knob of the devices arm must be set on the selected spot…the cylinder serves to mass and make the spot where the dimple is to be produced malleable.”

No Proof Goetze Had Anything To Do With Shirley

In other words, this guy makes a brace and bit device that has a rounded tip on the bit that is rotated round and round to massage the place where you want a dimple.  Good thing he had this patented….someone else may have stolen his idea.  But, I doubt if he ever acheived Shirley Temple-like dimples on anyone.  That creation came from the hand of one greater than man.  However, I’ve seen some dimples on the backside of some bikini whales down at the beach that may be from the hand of Goetze.

 

I told you so!

Weather Bottom Line: 

Enjoy the week.  Big ridge moves in.  Another cool start Tuesday but the mercury will climb as the week progresses.  Don’t be surprised to see mid 80′s by Thursday or so.  The ridge will block out everything.    It will drive a developing area of low pressure in the Bahamas across Florida and along the Gulf Coast states.  I told you yesterday to expect the National Hurricane Center to be aggressive with this system and….well…it’s another Colonel Klink Moment!   Later in the season, they would not waste the time or money sending a hurricane hunter to investigate this.  But, I suspect that it’s a good chance to test out their systems and do a run through so they will send one out on Tuesday, even though they admit there is a low probability of it developing into a tropical cyclone.  There will probably be some reporting on this due to the pre-season nature of the system which gives a good opportunity to promote the fact that hurricane season is upon us in less than two weeks.  If you’ve got plans to vaction in Florida or along the Gulf Coast in the next few days, take a deck of cards, some jigsaw puzzles and other games for the kids.  Here’s the NHC report from Wednesday:

ABNT20 KNHC 182335
TWOAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
735 PM EDT MON MAY 18 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THERE HAS
BEEN LITTLE CHANGE WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW LOCATED JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
NORTHWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM ON TUESDAY…IF NECESSARY.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE…LESS THAN 30 PERCENT…OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ANOTHER
SPECIAL OUTLOOK REGARDING THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED TUESDAY
MORNING.

$$

Presidential Example of How To Deal with Islamic Terrorists Helped Re-Election Bid May 18, 2009

Teddy Knew How To Take Care of Business

On This Date in History:  President Theodore Roosevelt got a boost to his re-election campaign from an unlikely source on this date in  in 1904.  The benefactor was an Islamist terrorist.  Did you think that was a late 20th century phenomena?  Of course not.  They’ve been around for quite awhile as I’ve pointed out numerous times on these here pages.  However, this event really wasn’t that long ago when you consider that the seamstress for one of the main characters just died in 2004. 

Abdul Aziz Was Tossed in 1908

This guy inadvertently helped out Teddy when he kidnapped a wealthy American, Ion Perdicaris, in Morocco.  Mubu (Mulai) Ahmed er Raisuli was considered to be a Barbary Pirate who was unhappy with the sultan of Morocco for allowing the French to have great sway and influence in the country as long as they gave him toys.  See, Sultan Abdul Aziz got bicycles, 25 grand pianos, over 600 cameras and even a gold car even though Morocco had no roads.  Well, Raisuli had enough so he decided to act.  Not in the violent way that seemed more prevalent in the early 20th Century in general and has been pervasive in Islamic politics for generations. No…he decided to follow a script that could have been written in Hollywood.

By kidnapping Perdicaris and ransoming him to the Moroccan government, he hoped to involve the United States and bring great shame in disrepute to the government which would lead to it’s demise.  His plan worked.  He got the attention of none other than the old Rough Rider himself, Teddy Roosevelt, whose re-election campaign was in need of a boost.  Roosevelt seized the opportunity and sent a negotiator even though Raisuli had a reputation for sending messengers back with their throats slit or even just sending back their heads.  In this case, Raisuli didn’t provoke Roosevelt that directly but he was being difficult.  He finally agreed to release the tycoon for $70,000 then he changed his mind.  That provoked TR.

Cruiser Brooklyn Was a Pretty Big Stick

Teddy sent a telegram to the envoy instructing him to proceed cautiously and also included numeorus other items for the envoy to consider.  But, it also included the phrase, “the government wants Perdicaris alive or Raisuli dead.”  In typical Roosevelt fashion, TR sent a bunch of warships to the coast of Morroco.  The Republican convention had unanimously re-nominated President Roosevelt but the atmosphere was dull and listless until….they read the one “bully” phrase from the telegram to the negotiator.  When the conventioneers heard that TR wanted the prisoner back alive or the captor dead, wild cheers and applause errupted on the convention floor and the campaign was off and running.  It turns out it was all for naught because by the time the telegram reached Raisuli he had already changed his mind again, accepted the money and released Perdicaris.  Of course the perception of the public was that it was Teddy’s dead or alive demand that caused the release.  The campaign never did  anything to change that perception nor did it point out that the United States had given in to every one of the pirate’s demands.

Don't Let the Facts Get in the Way of a Good Cartoon

They also didn’t tell the electorate that it had been found out that Perdicaris wasn’t even an American citizen.  The administration had found out that during the Civil War, Perdicaris had renounced his US citizenship and become a Greek citizen so that when he refused his draft call into the Confederacy, his land holdings would not be confiscated.  The fact that the captive was not an American was not known to the public for 40 years, well after Roosevelt’s death.    I don’t think anyone shouted out “Teddy lied!”  Nor was there a movement to blow up his face from Mt. Rushmore. 

Raisluli...Doesn't Look Like He Missed a Meal

Now, this Hollywood script worked better than Raisuli bargained for. He got the $70,000 but he made the Sultan look so incompetent that the Sultan’s brother overthrew the government and the new administration clamped down on the pirate Raisuli.  The French were so angered by the whole thing that they exerted even greater influence.  Perhaps there is a reason why those who wish to topple a government don’t follow a drama line…

Sean Makes a Better Raisuli Than the Real Thing

But Hollywood liked the script and in 1975 produced The Wind and the Lion that was based on the incident.  But, producers being as it is…they made some changes.  Instead of a wealthy expatriated American man getting kidnapped, the lovely Candice Bergen was held by her captive…Sean Connery…who just a few years later was named the Sexiest Man Alive!!!  

Does the picture at the upper left look like Sean Connery to you?

Here’s a link to more details if you like:

Teddy’s Big Stick

 

 

In previous years, taking target practice with beers at guys running on port-o-cans was popular...not this year

Preakness Infield Looked Nothing Like This in '09

Weather Bottom Line:

  Snow White and I had a wonderful time at Pimlico this past weekend.  But, they didn’t allow anyone to bring their own beer (BYOB) into the infield this year and attendance suffered.  It was down 35,000 from last year.  Usually, its very wild and there is no space to be found anywhere.  There were plenty of green places this year.  Beer sold for $3.50 and a pack of cigarettes sold for $10!  I talked to one guy who said the local colleges boycotted the event.  But, that was better for me because I got to see ZZ Top on the infield from about 10 feet away. 

 

Paul Richardson has a birthday today, but I don’t know how old he is but he’s closer to retirement than me.  I may have been in the Baltimore Sun because I was standing behind a woman who got her photo taken.   I met a couple from Tampa who told me that my old buddy Dave Reynolds suffered the same fate as I did.  But, because it happened to me, I was able to go to the Preakness for the first time.

You can tell I’m dodging the weather.  That’s because there’s nothing to say except a big ridge will be building in from the Southwest.  After a chilly Monday start, we begin moderating and will be quite warm by midweek.  No rain likely for the week ahead.  However, there will be a low wandering in to Florida from the Atlantic that will skid along the Gulf Coast.  It’s progged at 1008 mb and it will be interesting to see if they call it a depression.  Hurricane Season doesn’t start until June 1 but it’s not unusual for the boys at the National Hurricane Center to get aggressive with the classification of pre-season storms.  Often, it doesn’ t warrant such a thing but I think they bend the parameters a bit sometimes to get everyone’s attention.  Sorta  a marketing tool.   But, I don’t know that for certain.

Clinton Impeachment Was Political, As It Was Intended; Mark Twain on Weather and Statistics May 16, 2009

 

Bill Forever Linked With Andrew Johnson

Johnson Trial Was a Circus

On This Date In History:On May 16, 1868 President Andrew Johnson escaped removal from office.  He been impeached for violating a law that has largely been determined by Constitutional historians to be Unconstitutional.  But, on this date the Senate acquitted him by one vote.  If you  don’t know about the basics of the case, including the infamous Tenure  of Office Act, you can check it out here at Johnson Impeachment.   What I want to talk about is something that probably doesn’t show up in too many texts.

Ross Not Welcomed Home

Republican Edmund Gibson Ross was appointed as Senator from Kansas following the death of Republican Senator James H. Lane.  Lane had shot himself to death due to criticism against him for supporting Democrat President Johnson.  Ross had served as a loyal Republican since 1856 and had consistently voted against the Johnson agenda.  But when impeachment came around, he promised that the President would get a fair trial.  All of the Senators had made up their minds except for Ross, which made him the deciding vote.  He vowed to vote his conscience, knowing that he had hundreds of telegrams from home demanding coviction.  He also figured that if he voted to acquit,  His political career would be over.  After he went along with six other Republicans and voted not guilty, he and the other 6 were not brought back for another term.  Worse for Ross was that a Kansas Supreme Court Judge sent a telegram that said, “Unfortunately, the rope with which Judas hung himself is mislaid, but the pistol which Jim Lane killed himself is at your service.”

Yup….I’d say that pretty much means your political career is done.  Oh…he became a Democrat and tried to run for Governor but was trounced badly.  So badly, in fact, that he moved to the New Mexico Territory… 

"You Sayin' I Got Out-Politicked?"

Democrat President Grover Cleveland lent a hand by giving him a  job.  He appointed him territorial governor!  But he remained shunned in his home state until he received a message from the state of Kansas in appreciation for his conscientious efforts during the impeachment trial of Andrew Johnson.  That message came just days before his death.    It reminds me of the baseball writers who hated Leo Durocher so much that they didn’t vote him into the Hall of Fame until the year after he died.  If Pete Rose ever goes in, I bet that’s how it will be.

Anyway, this is another example of how impeachment is not a criminal trial, but instead is a political tool. It was designed that way.  In both of our impeachments of our presidents (Clinton and Johnson), politics played a role in the impeachment proceedings and also in the subsequent acquittal.    So, if  you hear someone say “the impeachment was all about politics…” then you can say, “yes, absolutely, exactly as it was meant to be.”

Mark Twain on Weather and Statistics 

Sam Wanted to Control the Weather

If you get the opportunity, you should read biographies and the autobiography of Sam Clemens(Mark Twain). I do not believe his autobiography was finished before his death and that someone finished it based on his notes. I’m not sure if he would have liked it. Anyway, Twain was a very interesting character and is famous for a number of quotes. One is “everyone talks about the weather but no one does anything about it.” Since his time, there have been some attempts to alter or control weather with mainly mixed and sometimes disasterous results. Another quote comes to mind from a margarine commercial: “it’s not nice to fool mother nature!”

Another of his lines regards statistics. He said “there are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics.” People toss about statistics all the time as proof for one argument or another. When, in fact, statistics can be manipulated to tell the story we want. For instance, when I was a young stock broker, I once made up an entire sheet to show the performance of a mutual fund. My result was a higher rate of return than the company said. I studied and studied and all of my math was correct. The numbers were all correct except that I had based my entire calculation on the net asset value and did not include initial sales charges that the customer paid. Inadvertantly, I was about to use proper and accurate statistics in a misleading manner. Fortunately, I found the error and did not make the presentation but learned a valuable lesson and that is the thorough review and analysis must be taken in any subject even with a plethora of seeming accurate statistical data.

The other day, I said that tornado deaths had gone up in the recent years. That is true. According to the SPC, US tornado deaths have gone from 36 in 2004 to 39 to 66 to 73 so far this year. So, one might write a headline : “alarming statistic shows tornado deaths increasing!” And, without the hyperbole, it would largely be accurate, though it would be misleading and incomplete and some might say untruthful. Thats because from 1997 to 2006 the average death toll was 62.3 and that was with a very high year in 1998 of 130. If you were to take the four year total from 1998 to 2001, then you could say that tornado deaths had decreased each year and had dropped some 75%!

The point is..be careful of statistics. Look farther than what the author might imply and see for yourself if the data indeed tells the truth.

Here is a story with a headline that is accurate and a bit misleading but still  its accurate.

http://www.usnews.com/usnews/news/articles/070507/7tornado.htm

Here is an abstract on the subject

http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/users/brooks/public_html/deathtrivia/

 

Front Into East Kentucky By 8 PM Sat

 

Weather Bottom Line:  Rain and t’storms most likely midday…lets say from 11AM to 2 pm as cold front slips through.  As we get toward late afternoon, rain chances will decrease as front eases eastward.  Gusty winds and small hail possible with this but don’t expect the hoopla they had to our west the last few days.  Not surprisingly the GFS 18Z vertical profile is pretty aggressive with the indecies at just about every level.   But, the NAM is rather pedestrian with the SWEAT index almost non-existant and CAPE pretty tame.  Guess is  that, as usual, the truth will be somewhere in between and the boys at the SPC seem to be on that same type of thinking because they have no hint of severe weather around here except for a 5% chance of severe wind or severe hail.  NAM has frontal passage between 1 and 2 pm with GFS holding off to between 3 and 4 pm.  So…sometime in the first part of the afternoon should suffice.  There will probably be lingering rain showers following the frontal passage but, as I said, rain chances will decrease.  Look for a good Sunday, though temperatures will probably only get to around 70 or so at best…more likely just mid 60′s.

US Citizen Jailed For Publically Reading Bill of Rights in Los Angeles; 2009 Preakness Stakes Weather May 15, 2009

On This Date In History:  On this date in 1923, novelist and “muckraker” Upton Sinclair went to jail in Los Angeles, Cailifornia.  The charge against him?  He was charged by the LAPD of expressing ideas that were “calculated to cause hatred ann contempt” for the Federal government.   Sounds pretty bad.  What ideas did he express?  Why the dastardly skalawag Sinclair  spoke to a group of striking transportation workers and read the Bill of Rights!!! 

Young Rabblerouser Sinclair Guilty of Reading the Constitution! Such Sedition! Too Bad He didn't read it to our current Government

That’s right….well…sorta….see, he never made it through all ten amendments.  He didn’t even make it through the first one.  He read part of the First Amendment to the Constitution of the United States of America which guarantees freedom of speech, of religion, of the press and when he got to the part about the right “of the people peaceably to assemble,” that’s when the men in blue swept in and hustled him off to the pokey.   Not only was  he in jail for 22 hours, it was 22 hours without being allowed to speak to anyone.  The police chief wanted to hold him even longer.  But, there was an insider.

An underling to the chief called Sinclair’s wife, who called a lawyer who subsequently gained Sinclair’s release.  As for the police chief, he got fired. Oh…not for violating Sinclair’s Constitutional rights or anything….at least officially.  Nope…the chief got fired  after he was found at night in a parked car with a  woman and bottle of whiskey!!!  Now that is criminal mischief if I’ve ever heard it before. He’s lucky they didn’t lock him up and throw the keys away.

Just another example of how the police in this country have gone beyond their duties or beyond the law…in this case violating a basis for our Republic and the country didn’t fall apart. The issue got dealt with and so did those involved and the world didn’t stop spinning, nor was Presidnet  Warren G. Harding called a liar or blamed.  It happens.  We are still trying to build a more perfect union but we have yet to have perfect people in every level of government.

NAM Midday Sat...Scat/Iso Stuff Over Baltimore

 

 

2009 Preakness Favorite Rachel Alexandra

2009 Preakness Infield Favorite

Preakness Stakes Weather at Pimlico: 

It’s pretty humid in Baltimore on Friday and that will continue into Saturday. Look for a morning start on Preakness Day in the upper 50′s. Guess is that there will be a fairly heavy dew.  At first post time, it will be in the low 70′s at Pimlico.  Now, a frontal boundary will be approaching by Saturday afternoon. While the front itself won’t come through until after the Run for the Black Eyed Susans, there will be sufficient instability with afternoon heating into the low 80′s and fairly high dewpoints to trigger wandering afternoon showers and t’storms.  My guess is that if you do find yourself under a thundershower, there is a fair chance of it being  a fairly heavy downpour.  Handicappers are advised to hold their bets until as close to the race as possible to see if one of those storms has come to or is heading toward the track.  Don’t look for a lot of rain over a period of time like at the Derby, but a roaming t’storm could make a difference should it come and drop a decent little downpour right before the race.  I don’t know how Pimlico drains to suggest how the track will react.

SPC Severe Threat Fri AM to Sat AM

Weather Bottom Line:  A cold front will move through around midday to early afternoon on Saturday.  Given the time of day and lack of dynamics, a wide spread severe event is not anticipated but heavy down pours and t’storms are a fair bet with maybe some gusty winds and small hail.  Rain chances should tail off by mid to late afternoon.  Cooler dryer air moves in for Sunday and we go through a dry stretch for the first half of next week with temperatures at or slightly below seasonal averages. 

Tornado Probability Fri AM to Sat AM

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0258 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009
  
   VALID 152000Z – 161200Z
  
   …THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF W-CNTRL MO INTO
   ERN AND S-CNTRL KS…
  
   …THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM W TX INTO THE PARTS OF THE
   OH VALLEY AND SRN GREAT LAKES…
  
   …THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY…
   
  

SPC Fri am to Sat am Hail Probability

 …LOWER MO VALLEY INTO OH VALLEY/SRN GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT…
  
  
   LATEST MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT MCS CURRENTLY EVOLVING N OF MKC IS
   NEARLY COINCIDENT WITH SURFACE LOW SITUATED AT INTERSECTION OF WARM
   AND COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARIES.  MODIFICATION OF 18Z SGF SOUNDING FOR
   IMMEDIATE INFLOW AIR MASS SUGGESTS THAT ENVIRONMENT IS ALREADY
   MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG.  EWD MIGRATION OF
   40-45 KT LLJ ACROSS THE LOWER MO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WILL

SPC Fri am to Sat am severe wind probability

MAINTAIN
   A ZONE OF ENHANCED MOISTURE FLUX INTO MCS WHICH SHOULD SERVE TO
   STRENGTHEN SYSTEM WITH AN INCREASING DAMAGING WIND…HAIL AND
   ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT DEVELOPING ESEWD TOWARD THE STL AREA.
  
   FARTHER E…ADDITIONAL MORE CELLULAR STORMS ARE ATTEMPTING TO BECOME
   SUSTAINED OVER NERN MO INTO W-CNTRL IL…NEAR SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT
   WHICH EXTENDS FROM NEAR MKC TO S OF UIN TO NEAR DEC AS OF 18Z.
   LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ENVIRONMENT FROM NERN MO INTO
   CNTRL/NRN IL WILL UNDERGO CONSIDERABLE MODIFICATION THROUGH THIS
   EVENING WITH NWD MOVEMENT OF SURFACE WARM FRONT AND DEVELOPMENT OF
   40-50 KT SWLY LLJ INTO REGION.  THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED AIR
   MASS DESTABILIZATION IN ADDITION TO STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IN
   ADVANCE OF SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING NEWD TOWARD THE QUAD CITIES.  AS
   SUCH…ONGOING STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY…POTENTIALLY
   EVOLVING INTO A SECONDARY BOWING SYSTEM AND/OR SUPERCELLS WITH THE
   THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS…HAIL AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES.
  
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EWD/NEWD INTO
   PORTIONS OF NRN IND/SRN LOWER MI TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF SURFACE LOW
   AND ALONG LLJ AXIS.
  
   …CNTRL/SRN PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT…
  
   AS OF 18Z…COLD FRONT TRAILING SURFACE LOW NEAR MKC EXTENDED SWWD
   THROUGH CNTRL KS INTO THE NRN TX PNHDL WITH VISIBLE SATELLITE AND
   RADAR IMAGERY INDICATING A STEADY SWD MOVEMENT OF BOUNDARY.  18Z
   SUPPLEMENTAL SOUNDINGS FROM OUN…AMA AND S-CNTRL KS INDICATE THE
   PRESENCE OF NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES IN THE
   MIDLEVELS…WHICH WHEN COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S
   IS RESULTING IN A MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE
   OF 2000-3500 J/KG.  ENVIRONMENT REMAINS CAPPED…BUT COMBINATION OF
   FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD EVENTUALLY SUPPORT
   THE DEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS ALONG FRONT BY LATE AFTERNOON.
  
   PLAN VIEW VWP/PROFILER DATA INDICATE A NARROW CORRIDOR OF MODESTLY
   STRONG /I.E. 30-40 KT/ MID AND HIGH-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS CNTRL/SRN KS
   INTO FAR NRN OK WITH A NOTABLE DECREASE WITH SWD EXTENT.  GIVEN THE
   STRONG INSTABILITY IN PLACE…IT APPEARS THAT THE POTENTIAL WILL
   EXIST FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH THE INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN
   THIS ZONE OF HIGHER MOMENTUM FLOW.  WHILE VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE
   THE PRIMARY SEVERE HAZARD…THE THREAT WILL EXIST FOR A BRIEF
   TORNADO OR TWO IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDS.  WITH TIME STORMS MAY
   ATTEMPT TO GROW UPSCALE INTO CLUSTERS OR AN MCS ACROSS OK WITH THE
   WIND/HAIL THREAT CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.
  
   FOR ADDITIONAL NEAR TERM GUIDANCE…SEE MCD 835.
  
   FARTHER S…ISOLATED STORMS NOW DEVELOPING ALONG DRYLINE IN WRN TX
   SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN STEEP LAPSE RATE
   AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.  WIND FIELDS WILL REMAIN QUITE
   WEAK…LEADING TO OUTFLOW-DOMINANT STORMS WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF
   DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING.
  
   FOR ADDITIONAL NEAR TERM GUIDANCE…SEE MCD 834.
  
   …UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH THIS EVENING…
  
   1630Z DISCUSSION FOR THIS REGION REMAINS VALID WITH ONLY SLIGHT
   MODIFICATIONS MADE TO WRN EDGE OF SLIGHT RISK.
  
   ..MEAD.. 05/15/2009
  
   .PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009/
  
   …LOWER MO ACROSS THE MID MS RIVER VALLEYS…
   SURFACE WARM FRONT IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED FROM NERN KS INTO NRN
   MO AND SRN/CENTRAL IL AT MID MORNING.  MODEST SWLY LLJ AT 12Z OVER
   THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS FORECAST TO SHIFT/DEVELOP NEWD ACROSS THE
   LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND VEER TO A MORE WSWLY
   DIRECTION.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ONGOING CLUSTER OF
   STRONG/SEVERE STORMS…ELEVATED NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT THROUGH
   16Z…ENEWD AS WELL.  TRAILING CLUSTER OF STORMS REMAINS MORE ROBUST
   NEAR THE MO/NE/KS TRI-STATE REGION WHICH MAY BECOME MORE SURFACE
   BASED INTO NRN MO INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.  SHOULD THIS
   OCCUR…TRANSITION TO A WIND/ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY EVOLVE WITH
   00Z HIGH-RES WRF SOLUTIONS SUGGESTING A BOW ECHO/HP-SUPERCELL
   EVOLUTION NEAR THE WARM FRONT ACROSS NRN MO BY THE MID AFTERNOON.
   OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD EXPAND INTO MORE OF IL AND THE SRN
   GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE EVENING AS LLJ AND SURFACE WARM FRONT
   LIFT NEWD.  INCREASED ASCENT AHEAD OF MAIN MID/UPPER TROUGH
   DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WILL OVERSPREAD MODEST INSTABILITY
   AND SUPPORT A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS/ISOLATED LARGE HAIL INTO
   TONIGHT OVER THIS REGION.
  
   …CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS…
   OVERALL FORECAST/12Z MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS
   OUTLOOKS ACROSS THIS REGION.  MODEST CAPPING IS EXPECTED TO BREAK
   NEAR SEWD MOVING SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT FROM NWRN MO/NERN KS INTO
   CENTRAL KS BY 21Z…WITH DEVELOPMENT NEARER DRY LINE OVER WRN TX
   INTO SWRN KS LIKELY BETWEEN 21-00Z.  AIR MASS WILL BE EXTREMELY
   UNSTABLE ACROSS OK/SRN KS AND LIKELY SUPPORT RAPID SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ONCE CAP BREAKS.  WITH WEAK SURFACE WAVE
   EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO NERN KS LATER TODAY ALONG INFLECTION OF E-W
   WARM FRONT AND SEWD MOVING COLD FRONT…A MORE PERSISTENT SUPERCELL
   THREAT WITH POSSIBLE TORNADOES MAY EVOLVE INTO CENTRAL/ERN KS AND
   WRN MO THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.  ALTHOUGH GRADUAL VEERING OF LOW
   LEVEL WINDS SHOULD AID IN TRANSITION TO OUTFLOW DOMINATED
   STORMS/SMALL BOW STRUCTURES THIS EVENING. THERE REMAINS LESS
   CONFIDENCE ATTM IN PERSISTENCE OF INITIAL SUPERCELLS ELSEWHERE INTO
   SWRN KS AND SWD INTO WRN TX GIVEN THE WEAKER OVERALL DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR…WITH GENERAL EVOLUTION INTO CLUSTERS OR LINES.
   REGARDLESS…VERY LARGE HAIL SHOULD ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS…WITH
   GRADUAL EVOLUTION INTO A LARGER LINEAR MCS THROUGH THE EVENING WHICH
   WILL PROGRESS ESEWD ACROSS MUCH OF OK OVERNIGHT. 
  
   …UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY…
   VERY STRONG DEEP ASCENT COINCIDENT WITH N-S ORIENTED SURFACE COLD
   FRONT WILL PUSH EWD ACROSS MN THROUGH THE DAY.  SHEAR WILL BE QUITE
   STRONG ACROSS THIS REGION…ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN
   MARGINAL WITHIN 45-50F SURFACE DEW POINTS.  EXPECT STORMS WILL
   INCREASE IN BOTH COVERAGE AND STRENGTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OVER
   THIS REGION…WITH ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/WIND LIKELY WITH THE
   STRONGER STORMS.  OVERALL THREAT SHOULD WANE THROUGH THE EVENING
   INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES.
  
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

Ward, You Were Awfully Hard on the Beaver! May 14, 2009

 

 

The Cleavers

On This Date in History:

  TV Guide in it’s June 2004 issue named Ward Cleaver as the 28th greatest TV dad of all time.  Everyone knows about Ward.  We all know that Ward worked with Fred Rutherford, but did you know that Ward worked in the insurance business and that Fred was his boss? (Some say he was an accountant) Leave it Beaver was and is great.  It is said that one can only judge the greatness of a book by its shelflife.  At the time of its writing, Moby Dick barely sold at all for author Herman Mellville.  I don’t think Billy Budd or anything else he wrote did well.  He died in poverty.  It was not until after Melville’s death that his writing skills were discovered and since, his has been considered a classic. It is still sold today…in other words, it has stood the test of time.  If you apply that same line of thought to television, that means the Leave it to Beaver is indeed a classic of the genre.

 

 

Hugh and Ward Are in Heaven

Now, there are all sorts of jokes out there regarding Leave it to Beaver and there were all sorts of rumors.  When jokes and rumors get spread, then you know you are an icon.  I won’t touch the joke involving the title of this post nor the references to June’s ever present Pearl necklace, perhaps made infamous by ZZ Top.  When I was a kid, the rumor was the Jerry Mathers (as the Beaver) was killed in Vietnam and that Eddie Haskell (played by Ken Osmond) was really Alice Cooper.  Of course, I had also heard that Mr. Greenjeans from Captain Kangaroo was Alice Cooper so I didn’t know what to believe.  Mathers was not killed in Vietnam and Osmond was a Los Angeles cop who was shot and wounded seriously, I believe in the late 1970′s or early 1980′s.  I believe that ended his police career.

The Dashing Hugh

But, the perception of Ward as a super dad was actually probably pretty close to the truth.  See, Ward was played by Hugh Beaumont.  He had gained some fame in the early 1940′s as he got roles that may have gone to more famous leading men of the day except that they were off fighting World War II.  Beaumont did not.  He was a contientious objector.  He went to college to the University of Chattanooga.  He played football but quit when his position was changed.  He left school but later attended USC where he got his Masters of Theology, which explains his contientious objector status.  He was ordained as a Methodist minister but turned to acting instead.  However, he was a lay minister for most of his life.  Sounds like a good guy and he probably was because he was born in Kansas and I’ve never met anyone from Kansas that just wasn’t the nicest people in the world.

Scowling Hugh on Mannix

Hugh Beaumont died on this date in 1982.  In 1972, he had a stroke and doctors said he wouldn’t walk or talk again.  Leave to Ward though…he not only recovered but did so enough to perform in community theatres and do some directing.  By that time he had retired to Minnesota to a Christmas Tree farm.  Here’s what’s kinda interesting.  See, Hugh had also done some educational and industrial films.  I suppose that one was for the Army as training for what to do in the case of nuclear fallout.  During the Cold War, there were all sorts of training and public service films out to show how one can protect themselves in the event of a nuclear exchange.  Some of you old timers may remember Burt the Turtle who knew how to protect his head and also “duck and cover” drills at school.  Of course, this was all nonsense because by the 1970′s, it was finally figured out that there was no real way to protect yourself in the event that a nuclear device is detonated in your area. 

Burt The Turtle

That gave rise to a documentary on the subject called The Atomic Cafe.  I saw this film and its pretty funny because of all of the silly ideas that it had hoisted on the public.  In one scene, you see an army officer explaining that one can avoid the dangers of nuclear detonation if you follow procedures.  The officer was none other than Hugh Beaumont.  He’s not listed in the credits and the clip seems like it was from an old army training film.  I doubt if Ward knew about it though because it was released first in New York in March 1982 and later in Finland in October 1982.  These dates are just before and after his death in Munich, Germany where he was visiting his university professor son. 

There you have it…all you never wanted to know about Ward Cleaver…who was a good guy, probably influential on many people and was no doubt, never hard on the Beaver.

Probability of hearing Thunder through 8AM Thursday

NAM-Best CAPE South/Decent SWEAT around here Thur Morning

Weather Bottom Line:  We had some rumbles of thunder early Wednesday but most of the activity was well north and most of the heaviest rain was in the northern part of the area.  That was the warm front.  Now comes the cold front.  Wednesday night, the storms were pretty vigorous to our west prompting warnings and such.  But, by the time they get here early Thursday, they should generally be just a line of t’storms.  However, as I mentioned yesterday, a few strong storms with gusty winds can’t be ruled out.  The upper support should be well north but there may be some forcing with winds coming in from the southeast bumping into winds from the southwest.  When they bump together, you can get rising air and that may help in t’storm maintanence.  Then you also have the potential for storms collapsing and big gusts of wind resulting. 

NAM Better CAPE Saturday Midday

The front is kinda pokey and doesn’t move through until Thurday afternoon so we could have some afternoon showers popping up.  As with many pokey fronts, this one doesn’t get too far and it should stall out just to our south.  That would be a region susceptable to scattered showers or storms but probably not a washout.  Now, this guy may return as a warm front on Friday night which would perhaps support some more activity.  But the real stuff comes on Saturday afternoon as a cold front moves through providing a chance for more t’storm activity and, given the time of day, if the atmosphere has time to reload, could be worthy of some interest.  After this front, we finally get out of this pattern for a few days with seasonal temperatures, dry conditions and a fair amount of sunshine beginning Sunday afternoon through midweek.

http://www.alphainventions.com/

alphainventions 

“Enemy Combatants” Held Without Trial Is Not New; Enemy Leader Tried Escape in Drag; Storm Threat May 13, 2009

 

Gitmo "Enemy Combatants" Are Not The First Held For Years Without Trial...But I don't Think It's As Comfy As All That

On This Date in History:  I suppose the cartoon at the top may prove irritating to some.  I think it’s funny but not necessarily representative.  But, what you see to the right is an artist’s rendering of ex-Confederate President Jefferson Davis in drag.  The story was that Davis had fled at the end of the Civil War.  After days of trying to track him down, Federal troops finally caught up with him and the word was that he was wearing a dress! That was totally at odds with the image of Southern Gentleman as chivalrous, heroic and manly.  So, the northern papers ran with it and the myth that he was trying to dress like a woman, cowering behind petticoats, was created. Though it’s not clear what the truth is, the claim from the Confederate camp was that Davis grabbed his wife’s shawl as cover for the rain that was falling as he tried to escape as he saw the men in blue approaching.  I believe the kinder story was pushed by his wife.  That seems probably closer to the truth to me except…think about it…if you are trying to escape capture by soldiers….would you really worry about gettng wet?  It’s a mystery as to whether he was dressed up like a woman or if he was worried about getting is coif wet.  But, either way, the myth lives on because it was put in print and we know the press always gets things right and never has slanted coverage.

Beauvoir Before Katrina

Well, On This Date In 1867, Jeff Davis was released from prison after serving two years in jail, under indictment for treason. He was never tried and he was never even offered bail until May 1867. He had gained much sympathy from his travails with reports of rough treatment and being chained to the walls in his prison at Fort Monroe. 

Beauvoir After Katrina

One of his sureties was Horace Greeley, who had long been a political opponent. He had a northern lawyer volunteer his services of defense.  The case was to come to trial in late 1868 as his lawyers first tried to have the case thrown out.  It went to the Supreme Court but before it could be settled, a general amnesty was granted on Christmas Day and it was determined that the amnesty covered Davis.   Davis later refused to accept a pardon and retired to his home, Beauvoir, on the Mississippi Coast which looked pretty good as a historic site until recently.  It survived Hurricane Camille in 1969 fairly well but Hurricane Katrina did a number on it. 

Jeff Davis In Prison...Not Exactly Gitmo But Still Not Pleasant

 Anyway, Jeff Davis was held in prison for two years under indictment and he never was even tried.  I believe it is the 6th Amendment that provides the right to a speedy trial but the definition of speed in the case of Davis is probably closer to what the courts call “speedy” today than what was more common in the 19th Century.   I’m not certain though whether or not there was the delimma as today regarding a distinction between the treason charge being part of a military trial and the treason charge being in criminal court.  I mean, if the Union didn’t recognize the Confederacy, then he had to be considered an American citizen.  If they considered it as a war crime, then I suppose it would have been in a military tribunal.  As it was, it was neither.   But, as I’ve said before, next time you hear or read about something like this today, understand it’s happened before and the country didn’t fall apart.

SPC Categorical Severe Outlook Wed 8AM to Thu 8AM

Tornado Probability Wed 8AM to Thu 8AM

Weather Bottom Line:  Told you Tuesday would be good.  Now for Wednesday, we have a little small wave approaching ahead of a warm front from the southwest.  But, it would appear that this will probably bypass us just to the north.  North of Louisville may get some rain and t’storms but from my chair, what I see going on is not too impressive.  Now, the GFS gets a little aggressive as does the NAM on the index front so the machines say its possible and that is why you see it on your local forecast.  Shouldn’t be that big of a deal.  But, what it does suggest is that we are at the end of the line regarding good weather.  The warm front comes through in the first part of the day along with the wave which is also a source for rain fears. 

Now, the front lifts north and we get warm and soupy.  That sets the stage for a cold front early Thursday.  The biggest risk for severe weather will be to our west as the front moves through the plains in the heat of the day.  The GFS still goes bonkers with dynamics and other factors but, given the time of day, I would think the less aggressive NAM is more likely.  Look for rain and t’storms on late Wednesday night and early Thursday morning.  The SPC has the slight risk just to our West, indicating the boundary’s approach during the overnight as well as the bulk of the energy to our west moving northeast.  The one kink is that there may be some forcing to aid in storm continuance.  I think it’s worth keeping and eye on but not worth losing sleep over. 

Severe Wind Probability Wed 8AM to Thu 8AM

The front gets hung up just to our South.  That means rain and t’storm chances must be considered for Friday as waves run along the 850 level of the warm front…with the 850 level possibly being right over the top of us depending on the slope.  The front retreats and makes for a soupy Saturday which sets the stage for frontal passage Saturday afternoon or evening which will bring back the rain and t’storm chances.  Timing will determine the level of the severe threat.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0100 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2009
  
   VALID 131200Z – 141200Z
  
   …THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
  

Severe Hail Probability Wed 8AM to Thu 8AM

VALLEY TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS…
  
   …THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST TO SOUTHERN
   PLAINS…
  
   …SYNOPSIS…
   ON THE LARGE SCALE…PRIMARY IMPETUS FOR DEEP CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
   ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES TODAY WILL BE TIED TO A POTENT UPPER
   TROUGH WHICH WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY…AND REACH THE
   UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT AS IT
   BEGINS TO TAKE ON MORE OF A NEGATIVE TILT. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM…A
   RATHER MOIST AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY SURGE NORTHEASTWARD
   INTO THE MIDWEST AHEAD OF AN EAST-SOUTHEAST MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS
   THE MIDWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS.
  
   …MIDWEST TO SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS…
   INITIALLY…ON THE NOSE OF A RATHER STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL
   JET AND EASTERN FRINGE OF A PLAINS ELEVATED MIXED LAYER…SCATTERED
   TO NUMEROUS TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
   PERIOD ACROSS THE MIDWEST…INCLUDING PORTIONS OF IA/MO/IL/INDIANA.
   AT LEAST SOME OF THESE ELEVATED TSTMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL
   THROUGH THE MORNING.
  
   ALTHOUGH SOME QUESTIONS EXIST REGARDING THE TIMING/DEGREE OF DIURNAL
   DESTABILIZATION WITH NORTHEASTWARD EXTENT ACROSS THE MIDDLE/UPPER
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN THE WAKE OF EARLY DAY ACTIVITY…RAPID
   DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM THE SOUTHWEST…WITHIN A
   NARROW PRE-COLD FRONTAL WARM/UNSTABLE SECTOR ACROSS MO/SOUTHEAST IA
   INTO ADJACENT IL. PROVIDED SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING…STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS SHOULD QUICKLY
   DEVELOP…WITH A MIXED MODE OF SUPERCELLS/BOWS POSSIBLE BENEATH 50
   KT MID LEVEL FLOW. ASIDE FROM SEVERE HAIL…TORNADOES WILL BE
   POSSIBLE GIVEN STRONG 40-50 KT FLOW IN THE LOWEST 1 KM AND AMPLE LOW
   LEVEL SRH. THIS THREAT COULD BE HEIGHTENED IN VICINITY OF WARM FRONT
   AND/OR ANY REMNANT MODIFIED OUTFLOW ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPI
   VALLEY INCLUDING PORTIONS OF MO/SOUTHEAST IA INTO IL.
   OTHERWISE…DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL MAY ULTIMATELY INCREASE THROUGH
   THE EVENING AS STORMS CONGEAL/RACE EASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST.
  
   FARTHER SOUTHWEST…TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
   EVENING ALONG/JUST BEHIND THE SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING SURFACE COLD
   FRONT FROM MO/SOUTHEAST KS INTO OK…AND PERHAPS IN VICINITY OF THE
   DEEPLY MIXED AIRMASS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE LOW/DRYLINE
   TRIPLE POINT NEAR THE WESTERN OK/TX PANHANDLE BORDER. EVEN WITH
   WEAKER MID LEVEL FLOW AT THIS LATITUDE…VERY STEEP MID LAPSE
   RATES/VEERING WIND PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE/POTENTIALLY
   SOME SIGNIFICANT HAIL WITH SUPERCELLS. A FEW TORNADOES MAY BE
   POSSIBLE…ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATE
   ENVIRONMENT. AS AN UPSWING IN TSTM COVERAGE CONTINUES THROUGH THE
   EVENING ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE…AND A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL
   JET NOCTURNALLY INCREASES ACROSS TX…THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT
   THESE TSTMS COULD CONSOLIDATE AND GROW UPSCALE INTO A FORWARD
   PROPAGATING MCS…WITH HEIGHTENED DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL ACROSS
   OK/AR INTO THE ADJACENT ARKLATEX VICINITY.
  
   …CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES AND FL…
   MAINLY ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
   EVENING ALONG THE RESIDUAL FRONTAL ZONE AND MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
   AXIS ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES…AS WELL AS THE FL SEA BREEZE.
  
   ..GUYER/JEWELL.. 05/13/2009

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alphainventions

Happy Mother’s Day…Your Son is a Thug! Iraq Got Arms Through Syria May 12, 2009

Don't Trash Talk Momma

Think He's a Match For Kenyon?

Happy Mother’s Day! Your Son is a Thug!  So, the NBA playoffs are going on an they are pretty physical.  One of the more physical players is the Denver Nuggets’ Kenyon Martin.  On Mother’s Day, the Nuggets and the Dallas Mavericks were playing a game and Cuban took the opportunity to tell Martin’s mom that her son was a thug.   A fine wish on mom’s day.  Seems her little boy, 6 foot nine 250 lb Kenyon, didn’t take to kindly to the owner’s conversation with his mother.  But, he’s not going to talk about in the press.  When asked about it, Martin said, “”It’s a little personal, and I’m going to take care of it,” he said. “I’m not going to do the whole media thing, back and forth. That’s his thing. I’m more of a face-to-face type of dude.”   I think Cuban should use some of his billions to hire some good security.

Arms Deals Have Gone On in Mideast For Years

On This Date in History:  This should sound familiar.  An adversary to the west supplies arms and support to Iraq which is threatening to cut off the oil to its former western allie, breaking agreements in the process.  The arms supplied to Iraq flow through Syria as the anti-western Iraqi government gets into a conflict with the western power.

This little story is not new…in fact it’s old.  The country supplying the arms was none other than Germany and its leader was Adolph Hitler.  On this date in 1941, Hitler sent two bombers to Iraqi leader Rashid Ali al-Gailani who had staged a coup against the pro-western government of Prime Minister General Nuri as-Said who had severed ties with Germany and signed an agreement of cooperation with Great Britain.  Ali was also a General but he opposed the British and, upon gaining power, turned off the oil pipeline to the Mediterranean which Britain needed in its war effort. 

Hitler's Gift Did No Good

The Brits landed a brigade who fought successfully against 9000 Iraqis.  Ali responded by cutting off a British airbase and on May 12, 1941 Hitler was so enthused that he not only sent two bombers but also a big shot major who would serve as an advisor.  Well, Major Axel von Blomberg didn’t get the chance.  Seems he flew right into an air battle between the Brits and Iraqis and Blomberg was killed by a stray English bullet.  Two weeks later, Iraq surrendered al-Said was put back in the throne of power and the original 1930 cooperation agreement was re-established with the English.  Iraq became a key element in the American and British fight in World War II and in the beginning of 1942 Iraq was the first Muslim nation to declare war on Hitler and the Axis powers. 

The real point of this story is that this struggle between the Muslim world and the West is not new and goes far beyond today and even World War II.  You really have to go back about 1500 years.  What are the odds it ends in our lifetime?

Tornado Damage From Saturday

Weather Bottom Line: I told you the other day that we inexplicably lucked out with the Derecho that came through.  There were warnings in all of Southern Missouri and part of Southern Indiana and also in Eastern Kentucky.  But nothing much from Louisville to Paducah.  The only thing I can figure is that for some reason there was a decoupling of the winds aloft and at that the surface because the clouds were just racing along yet we didn’t have much wind, to my surprise.  But, whatever it was, it got itself back together after producing straight line winds in Carbondale, IL of 106 mph.  An EF-3 tornado touched down southeast of Richmond, KY in Garrard and Madison counties.  The distruction was pretty tough.  Here’s the Louisville NWS analysis (By Meteorologist Poohbah Joe Sullivan) and a whole bunch of pictures.

Tuesday will be good…..but all models show a short wave early Wednesday coming through our area.  Probably a safe bet for rain or t’storms.  Both the NAM and GFS Monday 18Z version of the vertical profiles show some pretty fair dynamics but not much potential energy.  What is curious to me is that in the afternoon, the indecies get stronger.  Then a cold front comes through on Thursday and the indecies are strong across the board on the NAM but go absolutely beserk on the GFS.  Let’s re-evaluate this and enjoy our Tuesday. 

http://www.alphainventions.com/

alphainventions

This Kindly Old Widow Was Really a Notorious Loose Cannon May 11, 2009

Patty, is that You?

 

Hal Roth Tells All About Patty Cannon

On This Date in History:  We hear of all these heinous crimes today and think that the world is going to hell in a hand basket  The truth is that mankind has been anything but kind throughout its history and, though it seems we have more outlandish behaviour today, I suspect the perception is more linked to a  larger population and electronic news media than anything else.  In 1829, a tenant farmer on the land of the widow Lucretia “Patty” Cannon near Johnson’s Cross Roads in Delaware was plowing the field  His horse “sunk in a grave, and on digging, he found a blue-painted chest.”  Inside the chest was a bunch of bones that belonged to a man who had been missing for a dozen years.  Turns out, the bones belonged to a slave trader from Georgia.  He had been invited to supper by Patty and her son-in-law, Joe Johnson, and the 15 grand apparently burned a hole in their hearts  So, right at the dinner table, they killed him,  took his money and buried him in the blue chest. 

The Haunted Cannon House

Turns out old Patty, who was a woman in her 60′s, was no wall flower widow. ..her ghost is said to still roam her house! See, the townfolk had long suspected that she had gained her widow status by poisoning her husband.  She ran a tavern in Johnson’s Cross Roads, which was on the route of the Underground Railroad that spirited slaves from slaveholding states to freedom.  Well, she took advantage of their location near the Maryland-Delaware border.  She also participated in the dastardly practice of capturing free Blacks, who probably had just gained their freedom, and then selling them back into slavery for as much as $1100, which was a huge sum in the early 19th Century.  Heck, these days that’s a good deal of money for me!  Anyway, it was said that she and this no-good son-in-law would keep the captured people chained in their attic until they could ship them South.  They had a Black agent in Philadelphia who would drug the victim and then put them on a ship, which was owned by Patty, and send them back to the Carolinas and a renewed life of slavery.   Not enough?  How about some more?

Underground Railroad Barely Clipped Delaware...Right Through Patty's Tavern

As the authorities dug around the field, they found more bodies that included children.  Seems this not so matronly widow took to beating Black children to death with a stick because they didn’t fetch much money on the open market and were probably more difficult to keep in the attic than adults. 

Well, I guess the neighbors were glad to get rid of their local menace as well as neighboring towns because in April 1829, the town crier in Seaford, Delaware wandered about the town and yelled, “Three O’Clock and Patty Cannon taken!”  But, Patty Cannon cheated the executioner because on this date in 1829, Lucretia “Patty” Cannon poisoned herself to death in jail.  No word on what happened to the no-good son-in-law.  Somehow he escaped infamy.  And the story itself is not widely told in history classes or in books about how there were many places barely in free territory along the Underground Railroad where slaves had struggled to gain their freedom only to be quickly lured back into involuntary servitude.  But, the story of Patty Cannon is known in the small town in Delaware, though the town doesn’t seem to want to advertise it too much.  See, the actions of Patty Cannon forced the town of Johson’s Cross Roads to change its name to Reliance, DE.  While they tried to erase the history books of the towns role in the untracking of the Underground Railroad, folks in the state capital still seem to hold on. 

In the early 20th Century, the body of Patty Cannon was exhumed for some reason.  Before they could rebury it, the head fell off.  A resident gained possession of the skull.  I guess the resident had a fun-filled nephew who lent it to the Dover Public Library.  At least into the 1990′s, and perhaps even today, every Halloween, the Dover Public Library put the skull on display!

SPC Wed-Thu Severe Outlook

Weather Bottom Line:  Pretty much the same song third verse.  Today we improve though some sunshine may trigger an isolated shower in the afternoon before the air becomes more stable as there is still come colder air aloft  Kinda like how in the winter time we get a snow shower and then sunshine then a snow shower.  Anyway, Tuesday looks pretty good then the most recent front comes back as a warm front on Wednesday that may bring some showers or even a t’storm.  Now, the SPC has us barely in the slight risk for severe weather from Wednesday morning to Thursday morning.  What we have is a cold front advancing from the northwest but I see both the NAM and the GFS have the front coming through on Thursday morning.  So, my guess is that the boys at the SPC are being cautious because the moderate risk isn’t all that far from us and they may be afraid that perhaps some of those big boppers may hold together if they advance east in the late afternoon and early evening.  But, I suspect that, if they develop, they would move northeast well before the line got here as the upper energy is well to our northwest.  See SPC discussion below.

The front gets hung up just to our east and south on Thursday, maintaining a risk of rain and t’storms, particularly if a wave wanders across.  I really don’t see too much of a threat on Friday but Saturday, another front comes through bringing another chance for storms late in the day or evening. 

I Feel Like Billy Joel

People in Glass Houses Shouldn’t Throw Stones:  Yesterday, I referred to a tv weather person as a “knucklehead” for saying we’d have cloudy skies late on Mother’s Day.   I said we’d have high wispy cirrus clouds.  Well, at 5pm I was having a Mother’s Day meal with my mother-in-law and Snow White when I looked out the window and saw my high clouds, but it was a cirrostratus deck. It was indeed cloudy.  I was right, but wrong. This should serve as example and reminder to not be so quick to judge, especially in such a finicky field as weather.   I shall look in the mirror next time I want to see a knucklehead.

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0230 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2009
  
   VALID 131200Z – 141200Z
  
   …THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF IL AND MO…
  
   …THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OH
   VALLEY…SRN GREAT LAKES…MID-MS VALLEY…OZARKS…CNTRL PLAINS AND
   SRN PLAINS…
  
   …UPPER TO MID-MS VALLEY/OZARKS/SRN PLAINS…
   AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY AND MOVE EWD ACROSS THE NRN
   STATES AS A WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
   TROUGH. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM…RETURNING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD
   CREATE A LARGE WARM SECTOR FROM THE SRN PLAINS NNEWD ACROSS THE MID
   TO UPPER-MS VALLEY. STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL
   TROUGH AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
   MID-LEVEL JET OVER THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL
   FOR A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
  
  
   EARLY IN THE PERIOD…AN MCS SHOULD BE ONGOING IN THE MID-MS VALLEY
   WITH THIS CONVECTIVE CLUSTER MOVING EWD ACROSS PARTS OF THE OH
   VALLEY. IN THE WAKE OF THE MCS…SFC-BASED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
   INITIATE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM
   NCNTRL IL SWWD ACROSS MO INTO SE KS. MODEL FORECASTS REMAIN
   CONSISTENT THAT THIS CONVECTION WILL ORGANIZE INTO A WELL-DEVELOPED
   LINEAR MCS EWD ACROSS THE WRN PORTION OF THE OH VALLEY SWWD ACROSS
   THE MID-MS VALLEY…NRN OZARKS INTO ERN OK WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE
   GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE POSITION OF THE
   UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS COMBINED WITH GOOD CERTAINTY CONCERNING THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS STORMS IN A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT
   SUPPORTS THE ISSUANCE OF A MODERATE RISK IN IL AND MO WEDNESDAY
   AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PARAMETERS ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE
   ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT
   WITH A STRONGLY FORCED LINE OF INTENSE STORMS. SWWD ACROSS THE
   OZARKS AND SRN PLAINS…THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED DUE TO
   WEAKER FORCING. A GRADUAL DROP OFF IN SEVERE REPORT COVERAGE SHOULD
   OCCUR IN THE OZARKS AND SRN PLAINS FOR THIS REASON.
  
   ..BROYLES.. 05/11/2009

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Origin of Mother’s Day and the Free Love Movement May 10, 2009

Get Naked For Mom's Day?

What Was the Post Office Thinking?

Mother’s Day: I had always assumed that Mother’s Day was invented by some card company like Hallmark.  I was wrong. It was just hijacked by the entreprenuerial spirit of America!  There’s all sorts of stuff about it going back to the early church and then going on through the 17th century in Europe, still associated with the church.  It had been to celebrate Mother Mary, then the Mother Church with Mothering Sunday. But when the folks came across the pond to America, the colonists were too busy working to do such things and it died out. 

Mother of Mother's Day

Then along comes the Civil War and a woman named Anne Marie Reeves Jarvis.  She started “Mother’s Friendship Day” as a way to improve sanitation in 1858.  During the Civil War she continued the practice by organizing women on both sides to try and improve the nasty situation. Afterword, she organized Mother’s Friendship Clubs to teach women the basics of nursing and sanitation. She also took the opportunity to bring reconciliation to the nation following the war.  Anne died in 1905 and her daughter Anna missed her greatly.  Anna felt that children didn’t appreciate their mother’s enough while they were alive. in 1907, she decided to start a day to honor mothers. She began a letter writing campaign to ministers and such an in 1908, the first Mother’s Day service was held in honor of Anne Marie Jarvis in Grafton, West Virginia, where she went to church for 20 years and her church in Philadelphia, the city where she died.

It caught on and in 1912 The International Mother’s Day Association had come into being and by 1914, a Presidential Proclamation by Woodrow Wilson designated the second Sunday of May as Mother’s Day.  But Anna Jarvis’ happiness didn’t last long.  It was in just a few short years that people started giving cards and flowers and presents and all sorts of things.

Wilson With Wife and Daughters Mother's Day 1912

It became more secular than what Miss Jarivs had envisioned.  Commericialization had taken over and it continues today as Mother’s Day is one of the most financially successful days on the calendar.  Anna Jarvis died as a cranky old woman who fought to oppose Mother’s Day.  I guess she created a monster like Frankenstein.  But not as much as the Postal Service. 

Yes indeed…in 1934 they decided to get into the act and make a stamp to commemorate Mother’s Day.  And what did they pick to commemorate the day to honor the wholesome beauty of Motherhood?  The portrait of James Abbott McNeill Whistler’s mother!  You look at it and try to figure out what they were thinking. It sure wasn’t “Happy Mother’s Day.”

On This Date In History:  This obviously wasn’t Mother’s Day because it was before the day was established.  But, this woman was seen by many as the antithesis of motherhood. On this date in 1872 Victoria Woodhull began her campaign for President.  At that time, women weren’t even allowed to vote.  Her platform was as a “free-thinking reformer” and supported free love, abortion, divorce, legalized prostitution and, of course, the women’s right to vote. One of the photos above is a portrait while the other is a cartoon showing her as the Devil.   As part of her campaign, she sent out an article congratulating preacher Henry Ward Beecher for having an affair with a married woman in his congregation.  But, she chastised him for not advocating the free love that she said he obviously practiced.  On election day, she was in jail.  The charge was for sending obscene material through the mail.   The offensive material was the Beecher article.  Reports of her personal practices of free love did not help her at the polls.  An opponent of hers didn’t learn from her mistake.

Woodhull Covorting With Satan!

Also on the ballot was George Francis Train.  He was a millionaire with nothing else to do except to try and break speed records and advocate what he saw as struggles for freedom.  Jules Verne is said to have based his novel Around the World In 80 Days on a trip that Train once took.  But, Train didn’t count the days he spent in prison in France against his 80 days.  He got involved in an attempted revolution and barely escaped a firing squad before he continued his global journey.  He later beat his own record by going around the world in 67 1/2 days.  No word on if he cheated on that one too.  Neither he nor Woodhull were elected President. In fact, I bet you won’t find them on any 1872 election tally boards. 

But, Train had a penchant for making money because his campaign proved to be a money making venture for him.  He charged money for people to hear his speeches and he spoke over 1000 times to more than 2,000,000 people.  In an attempt to show support for Woodhull, he published a collection of biblical quotations that he said were much more obscene than anything Woodhull had written.  They slapped the old bracelets on him too and he was whisked off to jail.

Victoria Woodhull's Legacy?

Here’s a funny thing about this story.  If you look at the platform of Ms. Woodhull that was so scandalous in 1872, you will find almost every single one of them are accepted today.  If you live in Nevada, they are all legal and part of the landscape.  And to carry that point further, if you look at the Socialist Party platform of the early twentieth century that helped to feed a “red scare” following the Russian Revolution of 1917, you will be amazed at how many of the items in the platform were eventually adopted by Congress.  I bet that if  you told someone in 1900 the things would be legal and acceptable in 2000, they’d probably fall over.   Then again, they’d probably also collapse if you told them that man had walked on the moon, cured any number of diseases and that baseball players were making millions of dollars a year.

By the way….US Grant won re-election in the 1872 presidential race.

SPC Wednesday Severe Weather Outlook

Weather Bottom Line:  Last year, Mother’s Day was chilly and windy.  This Mother’s Day is outstanding.  I saw a knucklehead on TV claim we’d have cloudy skies by the afternoon but there will be just some high whispy  mare’s tails floating about.  I hope you got a chance to visit your mom and enjoy her special day. 

Now, tonight a little boundary will drop down and give us the clouds that the knucklehead was speaking of but from the different direction from where it was said to be coming from.  This is not from the south but from the north and while there may be a few showers, my guess us that it’s too dry to produce much to talk about so I shant do so any longer.  High pressure builds in for Monday and Tuesday.  Tonight and Monday night will be pretty cool with seasonally mild afternoons.  The GFS is showing a small short wave moving through the flow that will produce some clouds and maybe some showers but I shouldn’t think it would be too active if it indeed materializes as shown by the GFS.  Now, on Wednesday there will probably be an outbreak of strong storms in the north-central plains but the main support for those storms should track well to our north in the Great Lakes region.  For that reason, when the front comes through on Thursday, its likely at this time that we will see some rain and t’storms but the severe threat should be limited, though I suppose with afternoon heating and higher moisture, we may have a few warnings.  But, that’s several days away so enjoy your Mother’s Day and don’t worry about it.

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Who Pays Paris’ Phone Bills? Join Or Die! May 9, 2009

Who Pays That Phone Bill?

Hold The Phone, Paris!  Did you see the movie, Pledge This?  Well, not too many other people did either.  See, it was a vehicle of that noted actress and producer Paris Hilton.   It was only released in 25 theatres nationwide and now the investor who sunk over $8 million into the project want’s his money back.(see NY Post Story Here)  Seems that he thinks that Paris didn’t do enough of promotion.  But, her attornies say that she is the “single busiest person on the planet.”  Actress?  That’s for you to judge.  But, executive producer?

Paris or Marie?

  Let’s let Paris tell us what an executive producer does:  “I’m not sure what a producer does, but-I don’t know. Help get cool people into the cast.”  And finally, in another part of the testimony, a lawyer was asking questions about her phone bills.  Paris was flummoxed.  She said she’s never seen a phone bill before.  When asked who does see her phone bills, she answered, “I don’t know. Like, I’m assuming whoever pays my bills.  I never ask about that stuff.”    Somewhere, the Ghost of Marie Antoinette may or may not be whispering in Paris’ ear, “let them eat cake.”

 

Philadelphia Gazette May 9 1754

On This Date In History: From someone a bit more notable and less forgetable than Paris Hilton…You may recognize this snake from the HBO Miniseries “John Adams”.   This was actually the first political cartoon to appear in American newspapers.  It was constructed by Benjamin Franklin and the pieces of the snake represent each of the colonies or sections of the colonies.  There was a superstition that a snake cut into pieces would re-unite after sunset.  It went along with Franklin’s editorial referring to the “disunited state” of the colonies and how they were better off united. 

Here’s the rub….this cartoon first appeared in the Philadelphia Gazette on this date in 1754.  That is well before the colonists were talking separation from the crown.  Nope, this was done in relation to the French and Indian War and the debate on whether the colonists would join in the fight against the French and their Indian allies.  It showed up again in 1765 when the issue of the Stamp Act arose.  Newspapers reprinted the cartoon though there were different interpretations of what it meant.  Many colonists opposed to the Stamp Act associated the image with eternity, vigilance, and prudence.  Those who were loyal to the King saw the cartoon with more biblical traditions, such as those of guile, deceit, and treachery.  Franklin was opposed to the use of the cartoon at that time but it showed up in publications nearly every week for over a year. 

Printed without permission!!  Had the legal establishment been what it is today, Franklin may have sued. But I guess he was a pretty big hitter himself.

Preliminary Storm Reports May 8 2009

Sat Morning

Weather Bottom Line:  The situation on Friday was interesting.  A derecho or something similar came across the plains toward the Ohio Valley.  It’s orientation was such that it ran across a warm front with the jet stream to the north.  The jet should have kept it going.  I had thought that it would run out of steam when it got to the Appalacian Mountains.  That part was correct.  But, it is very interesting.  When you look at the storm reports, there were 23 tornado reports and 176 wind reports.  They stretched from Missouri to Eastern Kentucky.  I believe every county in Southern Missouri was under either a t’storm or tornado warning at one time during the day.  There was a report of 106 mph winds in Carbondale, IL.  Most of the counties  in South Central and South East Kentucky were under some type of warning.  Yet, when you look at the damage reports above, you see a gap along the Ohio River from Louisville to the southeast.  Very odd.  We had a couple of inches of rain and minor flooding…but the wind damage was east and west.  I suspect this will make a good graduate student thesis in the future.

After a front moves out early Saturday, a secondary cold front comes down  later on Saturday…may trigger some showers or scattered t’storms but nothing overly rambunctious. The deepest moisture should get kicked east before it gets here.   Cooler air will filter in on Sunday as high pressure builds in with highs on Mother’s Day in the 60′s and some sunshine.  Right now, don’t etch it in stone, but late next week there is some inkling of something worthwhile in the t’storm department.  Should be dry at least through the first couple of days of the week.

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