Tropical Storm Fay The Rainmaker; Invest 94L Lurking


for a more recent update on fay and other items of interest in the tropics, CLICK HERE

To Track Fay via radar imagery, you can click on this Interactive Radar (Click Here) and zoom in, loop and navigate anywhere in the state of Florida or the entire nation.

Official NHC Fay forecast track 5pm 0820

Official NHC Fay forecast track 5pm 0820

Fay is behaving badly, but not unexpectedly. I told you several days ago that I

Fay Spaghetti model track 18Z 0820

Fay Spaghetti model track 18Z 0820

figured that the legacy would be heavy rain and that is bearing out.  I had thought though that it would be about 75 to 100 miles farther north, and that may still bear out.  It slowed so much over the peninsula that while it was dawdling, the ridge was building in.  Now, it will start to be influenced from the ridge in a place farther south than the previous official forecast.  While the official track takes it slowly across north Florida and to the northwest, it is not totally out of the question for the storm to move west and re-emerge over the Gulf of Mexico before swinging back to the west-northwest and northwest.  It still has a pretty good looking structure on satellite and pressures started dropping and winds increasing the second it got offshoe, but the official forecast is for it to run out of time and stay below the hurricane threshold before moving back ashore.  While the general scenario is becoming relatively clear and it will continue to be a big rain maker with winds having a marginal effect except for the occasional tornado, the exact track over the next 48 hours is still beyond the ability of mankind.  You can tell the level of uncertainty in that the “cone” is actually a giant circle on the official forecast track. Here is the discussion from the boys at the Melbourne office of the NWS.  Hydrometeorological models indicate that 30 inches of rain could fall in some areas.  The map above is the late afternoon storm totals of the region.  Some areas northwest of Melbourne have received over 24″ of rain and Melbourne had officially received over 16″. 

DISCUSSION…

…EXTREME FLOODING DANGER CONTINUING IN SOUTH BREVARD…
…TRAVEL IS NOT RECOMMENDED!!!…

TONIGHT…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY CONTINUES TO DRIFT NORTH
AND ACCORDING TO THE WIND TOWERS AT CAPE CANAVERAL…THE CENTER WAS
JUST ALONG THE NORTH SIDE AT THE COAST.  HOWEVER…A CONVERGENCE
ZONE CONTINUED TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER AND WAS RESULTING IN A
PERSISTENT BAND OF SHOWERS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL.  AMOUNTS ARE
BEING MEASURED IN FEET…WITH ONE REPORT IN NORTH MELBOURNE OVER 24
INCHES AND SEVERAL OTHER SPOTS AROUND MELBOURNE AT 16-18 INCHES.
THESE RAIN AMOUNTS ARE EASILY RECORDS AND WILL TURN OUT TO BE
HISTORICAL FOR THE LOCAL AREA.  THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION
CENTER ANTICIPATES STORM TOTALS NEAR 30 INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS.

THE RESULTING FLOODING HAS PRODUCED LIFE THREATENING FLOODING IN
SOUTH BREVARD…ESPECIALLY MELBOURNE…AND CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN
HAZARD IN THE SHORT TERM.

THE CENTER OF FAY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTH
THROUGH THIS EVENING…WITH A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT INTO THE
VOLUSIA COUNTY COAST.

Tropical Disburbance 94L:  It is important to note that the National Hurricane Center is not showing

Invest 94L Spaghetti Intensity Graph 18Z 0820

Invest 94L Spaghetti Intensity Graph 18Z 0820

Invest 94L Spaghetti Model 18Z 0820

Invest 94L Spaghetti Model 18Z 0820

much enthusiasm for this feature at this time, making statements that slow development is possible. The Spaghetti models above continue to indicate a motion taking it north of the islands.  However, it is interesting to note that the spaghetti model intensity graphs continues to show some models wanting to take it to hurricane status, with a few even to category II.  It will be interesting to see how this guy develops.

About these ads

There are no comments on this post.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.

Join 37 other followers

%d bloggers like this: