The weather around here is great, which means it’s lame. Northwesterly flow with us within the longwave trof means the nice weather conditions continue until a little ripple in the flow, a shortwave or upper low, comes down and it would trigger some isolated to perhaps scattered afternoon t’storms, especially wherever it passes in the afternoon. The one for around here is weakening and the SPC is losing interest. We’ve still got chances in the forecast which is correct, it’s just there’s not a huge chance for anything worthwhile. The timing of these little guys is difficult until they actually form. For now, it would appear one comes through Saturday and another Sunday night or Monday morning. Otherwise, the weather is great. It will remain nice through the week and relatively rain free for most people. Heat and humidity increase as the weekend goes on. We’re a little more uncomfy by Monday, but we may back off a bit with a weak front Monday night. Snow White and I went sculling Tuesday evening and in spite of the lower humidity and cooler temperatures, I’m still beat. Age I guess. I couldn’t find anything interesting on this date in history so I’ve got some housecleaning that I hope you find worthwhile. The flooding pictures are amazing and the other discussion may be interesting to you.
IOWA FLOODING PHOTOS Here are some photo galleries from a couple of local papers regarding the flooding in Iowa. Many rivers have gone higher than the all time records, some of which were set in 1993. Keep in mind that we have been developing things at a rapid rate over the past several decades which means quicker run-off in many locations. New housing developments, shopping centers, etc. There are also dams and reservoirs and such that may not have been around earlier in the century. So, it’s possible that the rains of days gone by may have been heavier but the flooding today is greater. I’m not saying that this development is the cause, but I am suggesting that it is part of the problem. But, it really doesn’t matter if your house or farm has been flooded. These pictures are difficult to imagine if you put yourself in their shoes.
Des Moines Register
MORE GLOBAL WARMING UPDATE….A QUESTION FROM A READER AND A HALFWAY ANSWER
Here was a question posed yesterday from Johnny b. It’s an interesting question that is probably above my paygrade. See, his question is one of those little things that troubles researchers and opens a whole can of worms for the Global Warming Enthusiasts. First, the question:
“Interesting that the lower troposphere is radically cooler, while surface temperatures seem to be increasing, huh? Seems like common sense and the knowledge that hot air rises would dictate that convection would be increased and the lower and mid tropospheres would increase in temperature as well. Got any explanation for that one other than “One data set must be wrong.” Since I am a lay nerd, I do not have the ability to invalidate any source so I must assume that they are both correct, but I do not understand how. Is there anything on Earth that could suppress convection around the entire world?”
Now, an answer. On the one hand, people might say that all of the recent flooding is occurring because there is enhanced convection due to global warming. A retort might be that there have been big floods in the past before anyone says global warming took place. And what about Noah’s flood? Maybe that was global warming and increased convection.
As to the final question, I’m not sure that convection is being suppressed because I don’t think we have enough knowledge to make such a conclusion at this point. When I started fooling around with Meteorology nearly 30 years ago, I was taught by my professor that prevailing wisdom was that El Nino happened every 7 years. By the end of the 80′s, it had happened 3 times. So much for that “fact” that was presented. Truth is, research of El Nino hadn’t happened all that long before. It hadn’t been too many years before that science even accepted that El Nino really happened. But the Peruvians knew about it for 500 years and they coined the term El Nino. They didn’t know what it was except that every so often, they couldn’t catch too many fish. Same thing applies with hurricanes. We’ve known about them for centuries but the first hurricane to be tracked by satellite was Camille in 1969. The National Hurricane Center only consisted of 4 men. We think we know so much about hurricanes now but we really don’t. We’ve only been studying them in a detailed, computer driven way for about 50 years. In the case of tropical weather, El Nino, La Nina, Global Warming and others we are just scratching the surface. Oceanographers can’t tell us everything about the oceans because it hasn’t been explored. When I was a kid, the dinosaurs died out because the meat eaters ate all the other non-meat-eaters and they eventually died out. That was foolish but it was what was said. Now, the story is that there was some sort of cataclysmic event that occurred and the giant reptiles died quickly. Volcanoes, comet…asteroid..something. And, coincidentally, the result was said to be rapid climate change that cooled the earth and they died. Having said all of that, in my view, it is not possible to be dealing in absolutes. Just as it is wrong for Al Gore to say that the debate is over…we know all we need to know, it’s wrong to say absolutely the opposite and close the door the opposite direction.
In order to really answer the question one must know what is defined by the “lower troposphere.” The troposphere goes to somewhere between 15km and 18 km. What is the lower troposphere? 3km? 5 km? One might say that the heating and cooling numbers are so small, that it won’t have an effect on lapse rates in a real way. But, if you had a hot surface and cool conditions in the lower 7km, and you have a steep lapse rate then you might expect free form convection. But, there is a heating up stratosphere and what if radiational transport is bringing heat down to so 8 km? Suddenly, there is a cap and convection stops with the inversion. That would be a global suppression of convection. I doubt that is happening either. But, without more specifics of definition, it’s really not answerable.
Then again, as I mentioned, the question is ultimately beyond my paygrade and I’ve given some random thoughts. Just like the enthusiasts tend to put out limited data to support their position and pretend that other data does not exist, I’ve seen bloggers out to prove the anthropogenic global warming naysayers correct by not reporting conflicting data. But, the truth is the data does conflict. You’ll find in this first link an allusion to your suggestion about wrong data. Apparently, the answer from some is that the tropospheric cooling data is phony…somehow masked by the stratospheric warming that I mentioned. I say nonsense. That’s a cop out. When you can’t explain something you look for an answer even if it may conflict with your worldview…that is unless your livelihood is based on that worldview. No, a truth seeker would explore whether conflicting data may be corrupt and when it is found to be correct, then you look for the answer. If one looks for an answer but when he finds it but doesn’t accept it because it doesn’t fit his preconceived notions so he moves on, what’s the point of looking? They go on forever because they were looking for the answer they wanted and not for the truth.
The key here is the tropospheric cooling. Why is there not more convection if the surface is warming? Is there indeed more convection or is it the same? How can one possibly make that determination without data from years ago? If the surface is warming, why isn’t the lower troposphere? Another consideration is that often these articles refer to averages. If you look at the temperatures that said it was cooler in the winter, I thought I noticed that Antarctica had a warmer anomaly. The global average was colder but the Antarctic was warm….Hmmm…what does that mean?
A long way to say I don’t know. Here are some links that may help you try to draw some conclusions. Just remember, politics, money, power and science are a volatile mix.
Comparison of Lower-Tropospheric Temperatures
This one will cost you money but may get at the heart of the question…or at least reveal that you aren’t the only one ponder the question at hand as to what is going on.
Reducing noise in the MSU daily lower-tropospheric global temperature dataset