Iowa Flooding Photos; Silent Cal Smokes Peace Pipe June 23, 2008

If you note the graphic above, we aren’t even in the thunderstorm outlook, let alone any severe risk area. You’ll also note that it’s a copy of the Sunday afternoon outlook for Monday.  I’ll update this later on Monday.  Anyway, I still think it’s possible for a few afternoon t’storms popping up as we remain in the influence zone of vortlobes rotating around a big low.  While yesterday I was pooh-poohing rain chances for Monday and championing them for late day Sunday, my thinking is that a lobe rotating around will probably kick off some action.  Probably not as confrontational as Sunday but still some stuff.  Note that the alpha-numeric modeling is not bullish on this assessment but then again, they weren’t bullish on Sunday’s activity either.  I think a wave that passes through Sunday night may get re-energized to our east after the sun comes up.  You see that the boys at the SPC have a similar idea with the proximity of the slight risk just to our northeast.  Then I think in the afternoon with the approach of another wave, some storms may progress our way late.  The boys at the SPC have this idea outlined with a t’storm chance just to our northwest.  In any event, we get into a pattern shift by mid week as a high builds in from the west on Tuesday, shifting east and allowing for a warm front with much hotter and much more humid air to return and afternoon rain chances holding fast Wednesday through Saturday.  It would appear that we have a shortwave of some consequence on Wednesday that may elevate t’storm prospects.

More Iowa Flooding Photos

These come from the Iowa Department of Transportation.  There are a bunch of stills from around the state.  I find the one of the railroad bridge at Waterloo rather interesting.  If you look on the left hand side of the page, you will find access to time lapse photos of a couple of Interstate Highways as they get flooded.  It’s always wild for me to see an Interstate flooded and closed.  Here is the link:

Iowa DOT Flood Gallery

On This Date In History: This is the President of the United States, Calvin Coolidge.  It’s a famous photo and has to be one of the most ridiculous photos in presidential history, but also rather poignantregarding the US Government and its dealings with the Native Americans.  See, Coolidge fancied himself as a great friend to America’s Indian tribes.  He was completely embarrassed by the abject poverty on the country’s Indian Reservations.  The forced assimilation and legal setbacks to the tribes over the decades weighed heavy on Coolidge who put on a public face of sympathy for tribal rights.  In 1924, he even signed the Indians Citizen Act which granted immediate citizenship for all members of America’s Indian tribes.  On This date in 1927, Sioux Elder Chauncey Yellow Robe, a direct descendant of Sitting Bull, invited Calvin Coolidge to be an honorary member of the Sioux tribe.  Sioux Chief Henry Standing Bear presented the 30thPresident of the United States with a traditional headdress and the photographers started clicking away.   Check out Silent Cal’s expression.

While Coolidge might very well had good intentions, the government he headed hadn’t changed its stripes too much.  For, in spite of the good will and rhetoric shown by the leader of the Land of the Free, away from the headlines, Uncle Sam was busy snagging children from families on reservations and placing them in federally funded boarding schools where they could learn a trade or marketable skills as well as get them familiar with the Euro-American culture.  In the meantime, they were losing the language and culture of their native heritage. 

American Indians always got the short end of the stick for years….until…the casino!!!  In 1987, the US Supreme Court ruled that reservations are considered to be sovereign nations and can operate gaming interests without taxation from the state.  In 1988, Congress passed the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act to set some ground rules.  In some measure, this led to more and more states legalizing gambling because of the success of the reservations and legislators were trying to figure out how to get their hands on the Indian’s wampum before the Indians could get it.  I suppose if Cal were made an honorary tribal member today they’d give him a poker chip and comp him a room at the Casino.

Sunday Night and Monday Storm Threat June 22, 2008

Sorry this took so long.  Twas a bit busy today with several T’storm warnings.  Had someone email saying that we only care about Indiana.  Of course, the individual didn’t notice that I was on the air when the warning came out for his Kentucky county and I zoomed in and tracked the storm directly to his town.  When there are storms in Kentucky, people in Indiana say we don’t care about them. When there are storms in Indiana, people in Kentucky say we don’t care about them.    Come on…we treat everyone the same and bring the latest on the weather wherever it’s happening.   Okay..that’s off my chest.

Top graphic. Sunday night through Monday morning.  Sun going down, limited moisture at key levels but trofiness coming around has good dynamic energy aloft so that may be sufficient to maintain or even develop t’storms overnight on a scattered basis.  On Monday, the trof swings through but timing is an issue.  Cold pool aloft will help to develop afternoon stuff.  Suspect that most of the area stays dry on Monday afternoon but the timing of this stuff has been so off the wall, that it’s entirely possible that we still have the cold pool over us and the trof axis doesn’t swing east until Monday night.  SPC has the slight risk Louisville and northeast. 

After a dry Tuesday, we get back to the air-conditioner hot and humid conditions.  Still scattered activity  every day through the first half of the weekend.

Severe Threat Sunday; Strong Storms Possible in Midwest June 22, 2008

Here’s the bottom line from overnight stuff.  Looks as if we had it pegged and the model data continues to be pretty consistent and persistent and by boys at the SPC have gone with it as well.  Basically,  a boundary or front, comes down from the north.  It’s coming down from Canada so by the late afternoon rolls around it should only be stretching from roughly south of Detroit to St. Louis.  Out ahead of the front will be a fair amount of jet stream energy coming out from the southwest.  At low layers, moisture should elevate dew points a bit….probably not mid 70′s but maybe mid 60′s.  Little pieces of energy or short waves or upper lows, if you will, will move through the flow in the ahead of the front.  Could be a decent little blow up of storms.  As the front moves down our way in the evening, the storms will move in.  To be sure, it would stand to reason that some of the storms die out with the sun’s departure.  But, given the dynamics, it is not unreasonable to think that several of the storms would hold together late into the evening as the boundary approaches.  Further, the slow nature of the boundary also is what supports my notion that we have showers sticking around for early Monday.  It is for this reason that Saturday I suggested that we’d be dry Monday afternoon because the boundary would have passed by then.  But, this pattern is difficult for timing, not to mention whether or not something actually shows up at all, so we’ll see how this shakes out. I think gusty winds and hail  remain primary threats but….i see that the boys at the SPC have  a tiny twister threat, which is a nod toward the dynamics.

If you wish, here is the complete early early Sunday morning SPC discussion.  More  updates later on Sunday.

The Midwest flooding may not be helped any today as they will get more in the way of t’storms firing up as mentioned above.  The boundary will keep moving so I doubt if it will make things worse except that it will prevent rivers from falling too fast.  Further, while  nothing specifically sets up shop over the region to start training events, I do think that this unsettled pattern will generally remain for the next several days, meaning that the plains and our region will continue to susceptable to events that feature scattered storms with individual storms having the potential to be strong and bring brief downpours.  I’m sure the national TV boys will be all over it if anyone gets rain, regardless if it effectively alters the situation or not.

More Midwest Flood Stuff; Santa Anna A US Founding Father? June 22, 2008

For Sunday, look for the old Led Zepplin Forecast: The Song Remains the Same. Another trof will swing around and down into our region by late in the day. Most strong thunderstorm activity will be in the heat of the day and probably to our northwest. The data seems fairly consistent between models to bring the trof through here as the sun is going down. While it is a stronger version of what happened on Saturday, the results will generally be the same but given that we may be a shade more unstable and the dynamics a tad better, then I suspect that we will see more goings on than on Saturday. Still, if you find yourself under a t’storm, it would have the potential for a heavy downpour with small hail and gusty winds the best probability. Since it’s swinging through later, there may be some scattered showers lingering early Monday. In fact, if it doesn’t move out by sunrise, some t’storms might erupt. As it stands now though, I think Monday afternoon looks pretty good. The pattern remains unsettled for the balance of the week.

Mississippi River Flooding Update

We’ve been seeing photos and video of the flooding going on in the Midwest. From what I can tell from the data though, in most cases, this event is really not as comparative to the 1993 flooding as reports indicate or as I had thought it would be. That is little consolation to those who have been affected adversely. In any event, I thought you might see what the Army Corps of Engineers is reporting and their forecast data…found on the link below.

Mississippi River Levels As of June 21

Here is a link to a page that has a bunch of You Tube videos of Iowa flooding.

Iowa Flooding Video Link

Here’s another from a guy who is compiling AP video footage

More Iowa Flooding Video

On This Date In History: On this date in 1876, Antonio Lopez de Santa Anna died and I’m surprised the Mexican people don’t have a holiday. This guy was like Jason in Halloween except he was real and didn’t wear a hockey mask. He began as a low to mid level officer in the Spanish Army in the early 19th Century. The only thing he had on Hitler was that at least he was an officer. He gained fame due to his exploits in the Mexican war of Independence from Spain and that got him elected El Presidente by a landslide. When he failed to make a proper democracy, he simply declared himself dictator in 1835. By 1836, he had lost Texas. But, he wasn’t done.

In 1845, the Americans annexed Texas and Santa Anna tried to make a deal. He was deposed for trying to negotiate with the Americans. During the ensuing Mexican War, the guy in charge got tossed out and Santa Anna took over again. He promptly lost just about every major battle he waged and the war concluded with the ceding by Mexico of much of the Southwestern United States for $15 million plus the US took on all American claims against Mexico. Santa Anna voluntarily went into exile. But, he wasn’t done.

In 1853, the conservative party in Mexico gained power and for some reason invited Santa Anna back. He declared himself dictator again and this time required everyone address him as “His Most Serene Highness.” Pretty gutsy for someone who had his rear-end kicked for years and losing huge chunks of his country’s territory. But, he was a gift that just kept on giving. He needed to raise money to support his army..so he sold the United States another chunk of land in the Gadsden Purchase….another $10 million. But that didn’t help as he was overthrown again in 1855. That was the end. All told…Antonio Lopez de Santa Anna was the head of the Mexican Government 11 times!!!

He spent the last 20 years of his life scheming to take over again. It is my understanding that if you mention Santa Anna to a Mexican citizen today, it would be like calling a cop in North Carolina Barney Fife. And understandably so. The guy lost or sold Texas, New Mexico, Colorado, Arizona, California and part of Nevada during his lifetime. Think of all the oil, gold and silver that was found there. Perhaps we should make Santa Anna an honorary founding father of the United States since he contributed so much to our growth and wealth. Gotta be the biggest loser General in world history and you gotta feel badly for the Mexican people for what might have been.

Weekend T’Storm Outlook For June 21-22 June 21, 2008

At midday, I am observing a shortwave trof rotating through the upper Midwest.  The storms that have developed in association are primarily in northern Illinois and Northern Indiana.  The trof extends down through St. Louis.  I suspect that as this trof swings through during the afternoon heating, we will see storms popping up.  Any individual storm may have the prospect of small hail or gusty winds.  It is this shortwave trof that caused the SPC to extend the slight risk down to the Louisville Metro Area.  At the time of this here posting…you will see a computer’s idea of the rain chances (top graphic) with the 40 plus pop extending down from the northeast, roughly the area that one would expect the trof to be moving through during the afternoon and evening.

Aside from the observation, which is pretty much what you have to do in these situations, the computers didn’t really give much to hang your hat on for today.  But, Sunday the general consensus is for a much stronger shortwave to move through in the late day or evening.  It seems more problematic.  I wouldn’t expect tornadoes or anything like that but just know that the prospects for strong afternoon and nighttime t’storms will be elevated on Sunday.  We’ll see if this materializes but its been pretty consistent over the past few days worth of model runs.  Besides that, Matt Milosevich returned from nearly a week in Cabo and promptly declared Sunday as troublesome.  I hope that it doesn’t materialize for two reasons.  First, we don’t want to spoil Sunday activities.  Second, and perhaps more important to all of mankind, Young Mr. Lincoln will be difficult to live with for several days.

The Dead Zone & Midwest Flooding; Woody Does Battle In Mexico, again. June 21, 2008

I TOLD YOU SO!!!! (snow white says this is too long)

This is done just after midnight and there really isn’t much change regarding the SPC forecast for Saturday.  The idea is that a short wave runs along a boundary to the north and storms will erupt along the track but they have the severe risk area this far south due to the potential for guys forming south of the short or the short moving along farther south than the models indicate.  I’ll update this during the day on Saturday. 

The Dead Zone  If you want to look back at a previous post of mine on this subject, look no further than here:  ”I Told You So” from June 16, 2007  and “A Real Problem”  from May 14, 2007

What I’m talking about is water pollution.  I’ve talked often about how, in my view, we need to be concentrating our efforts on cleaning up a known death trap…that is the pollution of our waters.  Unlike Global Warming, we know for a fact that we are polluting our waters.  I know it every time we go to scull on Harrod’s Creek.  The other day when we put one of the boats on the water, the always delicate Snow White screeched “It’s feces!!”  And you know what? She was right.  My father-in-law told me it was a sewer and he hasn’t been there for years.  He’s known it for years.  Reports have come in for years about all of the municipalities that pollute directly into the Ohio River all up and down the waterway.  No one does a thing.  But we do give Academy Awards for movies that gets people all worked up over something else that may or may not be happening and may or may not be something of which we can do something about.  But water pollution is something we can do something about and we should do something about.  Water is a basic building block of all life.  Without it, we and everything else dies.  Poison it and we poison ourselves. 

As part of the effort to stave off Global Warming and also reduce energy dependence on foreign oil, Congress mandated ethanol.  Corn prices soared and corn production increased.  More fertilizer has been used.  That fertilizer is known to end up in the rivers through run-off.  The fertilizer, I believe it’s  the nitrogen, helps to decrease the oxygen content and makes for a dead zone.  When Snow White and I went to the Chesapeake Bay last summer, crabbing interests were in a decline because the number of crabs had been depleted due to a dead zone in the bay.  It has also been a well known fact that there is a dead zone near the mouth of the Mississippi River.  The photo above below Colonel Klink is a NASA photo where the red and yellow colors show depleted oxygen levels.  Marine life cannot live in these zones.  Here is a link to the NASA page that explains further.

NASA-Dead Zone

Now comes a report that the rains and Midwest flooding will only increase the dead zone.  More fertilizer for more corn crops so we can inefficiently produced ethanol to raise corn prices and not affect gasoline prices in the least.  More fertilizer then has more rain which puts more runoff into the Mississippi River that then goes into the Gulf of Mexico and then there is more uninhabitable marine areas.  Prior to this time it was 5,800 square miles of dead Gulf of Mexico.  How much more do you want?  Maybe I should make a movie and get people’s attention.  I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again…Global Warming is worth studying but water pollution deserves action today…now.  We’re 68% water…our bodies…where do you think that water comes from?  Our planet. Poison the earth’s water and we poison ourselves.  We are in fact poisoning our planet…no question its all around us.  Yet, we do nothing.  Here’s a story that came out today.

Dead Zone In Gulf Larger than Predicted 10,000 Square Miles?

On This Date In History:  Woodrow Wilson went into office with the idea that America wanted change from the Republican days of Teddy Roosevelt and William Howard Taft.  Never mind that he never got 50% of the vote.  He wanted to get America back to where he thought the founders intended and that was a non-interventionist foreign policy.  Yet, he invaded Mexico at least twice and took us into World War I.  I won’t debate the merits of World War I and will only mention that the first invasion of Mexico happened in Vera Cruz in 1914 when a handful of sailors were detained briefly by Mexican authorities.  The President sent a bunch of battleships and Marines to the area.  The Mexicans released the sailors and apologized. Not good enough.  Wilson demanded that the Mexicans also raise the American flag to a 21 gun salute.  Wilson wanted to embarrass a President of Mexico that he didn’t like.  The Mexican president refused to fire off 21 cannons while raising the American flag so we invaded briefly.  So much for change.  TR must have chuckled and applauded Wilson’s gunboat diplomacy.

On this date in 1916, General John J. Pershing’s troops were attack by the Mexican army.  Why? Well, maybe it was because he took his 10,000 troops into Mexican territory.  They were after Pancho Villa who had executed several Americans in Mexico and then briefly crossed the US border and burned down a town in New Mexico.  So, Wilson the non-interventionist sent Pershing into a foreign country too find a bandit who had killed some Americans.  The end result was some American soldiers were killed, more Mexican soldiers were killed and after 11 months, Pershing returned to the United States empty handed.  Villa lived several more years before being assassinated…by what most historians suspect was the Mexican government. 

Woodrow Wilson promised change, to be less belligerent with other nations of the world and later to track down a bandit who had killed Americans abroad and on US soil.  Oh…and one of Wilson’s legacies was the Treaty of Versailles which was so flawed that it directly led to the calamity known as World War II.  Change can be dangerous.  History if full of unintended consequences.

 

A Little Unsettled To Start Summer June 20, 2008

The top graphic is the rain chance across the area through 8 PM.  Notice that Louisville is in the 70% range.  I’m at home right now because I was supposed to be on the way to 12 Mile Island and beyond in the scull. Instead, I’m sitting around in my boxers and Snow White is shopping.  This rain is detrimental to my health as I can’t exercise and it’s detrimental to my wallet because Snow White’s not on the river but instead at the store!  I told  you that this pattern is difficult because the models can’t pick up small features.  In this case, we had all sorts of boundaries left over from yesterday’s storms.  When the sun came up, storms and showers reignited along those boundaries.  Now, I see what appears to be an upper low that formed out in Missouri and its rotating our way.  That is the reason for the elevated rain chances on the graphic.

The lower map is for tomorrow’s Severe Risk.  We’re on the edge.  The boys at the SPC suggest a weak frontal boundary too our north will help steer an upper low (short wave) across along the boundary and help trigger rain and t’storms, mainly to our north but they’ve given themselves a wide berth, I suspect, due to the fickle nature of the models which would tend to keep the exact track of the shortwave, should it materialize, a bit in doubt.

What is up with John Wilkes Booth???  In recent days I’ve had hits from people searching for John Wilkes Booth.  I think it’s over 60 by now.  Someone tell me what is  going on?  The result has been a lot of hits to a late April post dealing with the assassin of John Wilkes Booth.  Many of the searchers are going to the picture of Booth.  Someone clue me in.

Midwest Floods.  I’d encourage you to scroll back to the various links I’ve posted to the flooding pictures in the Midwest, including Southern Indiana. I don’t think  that this rain coming will result in anything catastrophic for our viewers in Southern Indiana.  I have made allusion to those who might try to take this current situation and blame Global Warming.  In my view, that’s just not credible because you can’t quantifiably defend the position with proof.  It’s theorhetical speculation that may be true, but also may not be.  But, I just saw Dr. Heidi Cullen make a non-direct suggestion.  They were doing a piece on the flooding and she said that we need to make plans for heavy rain events because we would see these types of events occurring more often in the future.  Didn’t say why but the unspoken assumption was Global Warming.  She didn’t mention anything about the build up of development that creates more run off.   Nor that flooding events have happened in the past that were equal to or greater than this one.  She also didn’t do a comparison of total rainfall between this and other events that could determine if, in fact, this is a rain event equal to other events or if it is just a flooding event that is equal to or greater than past events.  If it’s the latter, then it would suggest development or other man made creations that helped the rivers rise.  It’s a bit perplexing.  But, I  must be fair…she never said it was from Global Warming…she just said we’d see more of these events more often in the future.  You can decide what she was trying to say but was not willing to go out too far on a limb.  I say it’s a subtle way of supporting her position by safely and carefully crafting her statement so that she avoids controversy.  The way it is if this is the only statement with no follow-up, she’s in a position to say “see I told you so” or “I never said that.”  Very clever.

The Oil Flows, The Caribou Are Fine and Big Muddy Keeps Rising June 20, 2008

These guys don’t worry about the weather and neither should you.  In fact, these guys don’t worry about the Alaskan Pipeline either, nor any oil drilling going on.  They seem quite content.  Snow White and I were content rowing up the river.  I had no intention of rowing all the way to 12-Mile-Island but before i knew it, we were there.   It was sunny and warm with light wind and humidity was low.  We can expect more of the same for the next several days.  On Thursday afternoon, a few thunderstorms popped up in the afternoon and activity like this will probably continue through the weekend.  They should be generally few and far between but if you find yourself under one, it could have a little bite with a heavy downpour and lightning with a risk for hail and gusty winds.  The long wave pattern will generally remain the same with little upper disturbances wandering down.  It’s really really tough to pick them out much ahead of time beyond just looking to see if they are there.  The models will put one in and the next model run magically makes them disappear.  But, I think it’s safe to say there will be some moving through the flow periodically.  That will trigger scattered to isolated t’storms, mainly in the afternoon. That’s why Snow White and I are rowing in the morning….though not as early as she would like.  I like to snooze.  The pattern looks to persist into the middle of next week as the sharp change reported yesterday may get pushed back a few days.

St. Louis flood photos-Here is a photo gallery out of the St. Louis Dispatch

St. Louis Dispatch Flood Photo Gallery

On This date in History they let the oil flow!  In 1968, a big oil field was discovered off the North Coast of Alaska at Prudhoe Bay.  There were a couple of problems.  First off, the area had to be opened up to drilling and the frozen conditions of the sea for most of the year made it impossible to reliably transport the oil from the region by ship.  The US had been the largest producer of oil in the world until 1970.  As Mid-East Oil production surged, old fields in the US decreased and so in 1972, the US Interior Department opened up the area for  exploration.  In 1973, there was an oil crisis caused by the embargo of exported oil to the US by many Arab nations.  Today’s problems are caused by prices; back then it was actual shortages of the raw material causing a spike in prices.  Anyway, the US hurried construction of an 800 mile pipeline from Prudhoe Bay to Barrow, Alaska where it could be loaded on to ships.

In 1974, the major oil companies partnered up to build the pipeline.  Their biggest fight was with environmentalists.  Some complaints were that the caribou in the region would suffer and the permafrost would be damaged by a buried pipeline with warm oil.  So, the company elevated about half of the pipeline so that the caribou could pass and the permafrost would be unaffected.  They said it would pollute the waters of Prince William Sound that teemed with salmon.  The pipeline began flowing on this date in 1977 and peaked in the amount of oil provided around 800,000 barrels a day in 1988. 

In general, the environmental fears have been largely relegated to the ash-heep of history.  Well, I suppose the fear is still there but reality has been much less doom and gloom.   The Caribou have actually increased in numbers and that is trumpeted often by proponents of drilling.  But, they usually leave out the fact that much of the increase happened in the first years of operation because many predators like Grizzly Bears got scared away by construction.   Nevertheless, the Caribou are doing just fine and, from the pictures above, they not only don’t seem to mind the pipeline, they seem to enjoy the scenery around actually oil drilling operations. 

There have been two spills.  One was when a someone who was presumably an environmentalist who blew a hole in the pipeline.  Some 500,000 gallons of oil spilled on the ground near Fairbanks.  But, before you start thinking that the oil man has been a better friend to the Caribou and their friends than the environmentalists who think blowing up pipelines is a good thing…the Exxon Valdez ran aground on March 24, 1989 into Prince William Sound.  It was a huge disaster.  It was caused by human error but that is part  of the risk of oil recovery, production and transportation.   So opponents of drilling do have a leg to stand on.

Nevertheless,  this story illustrates how many of the concerns by opponents of production of America’s energy needs are often nothing more than scare tactics.  And that’s too bad because it obscures the more legitimate concerns.  But, we are in a bit of a quandary.  We need oil.  It is the most utilitarian and efficient source of energy we have.  In fact, the automobile was seen as an environmental lifesaver when it came about at the beginning of the 20th Century because it eliminated the disease prone and cumbersome wastes from animals in the cities.  By the 1960′s, the unintended consequences came about. 

There are all sorts of reasons why we need to find alternative sources of energy.  It may or may not be possible.  There are people trying.  But in the meantime, we need energy to live.  I heard a presidential candidate say that drilling for oil offshore or in Anwar wouldn’t reduce gas prices today so he’s against it.  What he didn’t say that development of alternative sources of energy won’t reduce today’s gas prices either. In fact, the Congressional mandate of ethanol from Corn has created all sorts of problems…more unintended consequences.  The Alaska Pipeline has a pretty good record.  So has the Gulf of Mexico drilling operations.  Pretty good isnt’ good enough and we should and can do better.  But, in doing so, we need new oil and gas sources until alternatives can be developed.  Had Anwar been opened up 8 years ago, there would be more oil on the market today and perhaps lower prices.  The Prudhoe Bay field was discovered in 1968, developed beginning in ’72 and on line with production in ’77.  It can be done.  It must be done.  There is no alternative not today, nor tomorrow…we have to wait several tomorrows and the only answer for now is oil, for better or worse.

Here is a link to a site that is hard to figure out.  Sometimes when I read it I think that it is operated from the far radical left…at other times it looks like something from the political right.  So, it may be a good balance.  I think some of you may find it a good read as well….interesting at least…and pretty controversial I’m sure.

OIL EMPIRE WEBSITE

Severe Threat Way West; Cool Tornado Pic? June 19, 2008

The severe risk today is like it was yesterday and should be for the next couple of days and that is along the front range of the Rockies.  The only threat we would have upcoming would be if a little shortwave coming through the flow made it here and was relatively strong and came by in the heat of the day.  The potential for all of that is probably best on Saturday, though Friday and Sunday I suppose are possible.  Snow White and I are going sculling today.  She wants to go all the way to 12 Mile Island….not sure I want to go quite that far.

There has been talk on the internet that this photo is of the tornado that hit the Boy Scout camp (Little Sioux Scout Camp) in Iowa.  It is not.  It actually came from a photo run in the Mitchell County Press of what it calls a tornado from June 10, 2008 in Orchard, Iowa.  I have seen on a website that several Meteorologists have viewed this photo along with other pictures and video and determined that it was a Mesocyclone with a wall cloud.  It seems rather odd to me that the winds are not stronger with the inflow given the location of the system and that a tornado on the ground would have stronger inflow.  But, it’s difficult to determine distances.  In any event it’s a cool photo.

Here is the original posting from the Orchard, IA photo from the Mitchell Press.   Check out the Midwest flooding photos from the previous post and you will find some pretty amazing video.  I think it updates frequently so you can get new stuff every time you click.  From data I’ve seen, it would appear that on the Mississippi River, river levels are expected to be at or near the 1993 levels with many locations forecast to be just below the 1993 flood.  Down river, so far, projections are only for moderate flooding.

Midwest Flood Videos, 3 Legged Willie and Lady Liberty June 19, 2008

Our weather pattern will remain persistent and that is a good thing.  We’ll see afternoon highs in the low to mid 80′s through Sunday.  Overnight lows will be in the upper 50′s and low 60′s.  A northwesterly flow aloft will bring little disturbances through the flow periodically and they will bring isolated to scattered storms across the area should they move through during daytime heating.  Saturday will be the best chance for scattered stuff with more isolated afternoon storms possible on Friday and Sunday.  Next Wednesday morning a warm front comes through and with it the heat and humidity so enjoy this stretch while you can.

Three Legged Willie Arrived in Texas on this date in 1827.  He was Robert Williamson and his leg deteriorated perhaps from a run-in with infantile paralysis.  So, he stuck a peg leg on the end of his knee and used it as a substitute.  You can see his bad leg bent back on the top of the stump in the photo.  He was a scholarly man from Georgia who could have stayed in the Peach State as a southern aristocrat but instead chose the wildness of Texas.  He set up court in Shelbyville, Texas and used a general store for his courtroom and a dry-goods crate for a bench.  One of his first cases featured a man that slung down a Bowie knife on the bench.  As it stuck in the wood, the man declared that was the law in Texas.  Three Legged-Willie pulled out a pistol and said “this is the Constitution and it overrides all.”  He earned respect though, not through brutal justice like Judge Roy Bean,  but instead by persuading with his knowledge of the law, quick wit and courage.  He became a leader in the Texas Independence movement and is acknowledged today as a Hero of Texas.

Lady Liberty Arrived In New York on this date in 1885.  On America’s centennial in 1876, the French promised to give to the United States a great statue.  Part of the deal was that the Americans would be responsible for the base and the French would take care of the statue.  Trouble was, both sides were short of money.  The Americans didn’t get done with the base until April 1885 and the French didn’t finish the statue until 1884 and arrived on this date in 1885 in 214 crates in 350 sections.  Two of the photos above are from France as it was being constructed and the third is one of it being reassembled on its pedestal in New York.  It was dedicated in October 1886 by none other than our man Grover Cleveland.    The sculptor, Frederic-Auguste Bartholdi, needed engineering help to figure out how to build such a colossus.  So he got the help of Eugene-Emmanuel Viollet-le-Ducand Alexandre-Gustave Eiffel (Eiffel of Eiffel Tower Fame) to design and build the superstructure.  An American Minister ended his prayer at the dedication ceremony by saying in part: “God grant that it [the Statue] may stand until the end of time as an emblem of imperishable sympathy and affection between the Republics of France and the United States.”  I’m guessing he never heard of “Freedom Fries.”

Midwest Flooding Videos I found a link to a sight that is a treasure-trove of Midwest flooding video.  Some is from Network sources while others are from individuals.  It looks like that its updated often so come back and click on it from time to time to see the updates.

Flooding Video