Story really hasn’t changed much. You can tell these graphics aren’t a whole lot different than previously. Isolated/scattered stuff this afternoon. Storms should be similar to yesterday in which a few get a little strong…perhaps heavy downpour, lightning, gusty wind….that sort of thing. May be marginal enough that they put out a warning or two just in case. Tonight,there should be an MCS blowing up in Illinios that would traverse east. It should die as it moves east but the remnant may be in our area. In the discussion below, that is what they are talking about when they talk about our CAPE getting reduced on Saturday morning.
Now, on Saturday, same story. Front approaching in the heat of the day. T’storms likely. Strong storms in spots. Main threat would be for strong winds. Any tornadoes would be very isolated and would be the random type that is found on a bow echoe or cell merger or something. In other words, strong winds with a fancier name. We’ll keep you up to date.
Remember, if you need to find a t’storm and want to track it yourself for any storm anywhere in the nation all the way to street level, just click on the interactive radar.
Top Map is Today. Lower two are Saturday. Below is the discussion from the SPC regarding the Ohio Valley.
UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY SE INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY…GREAT LAKES
AND OH VALLEYS…WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. A FRONT ATTENDING THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ADVANCE SE AND EXTEND
FROM AN OCCLUDED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES SWWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY
AND SRN PLAINS BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING.
…TN AND OH VALLEYS AND LOWER GREAT LAKES…
RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITH UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 DEWPOINTS
WILL PERSIST IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER…POTENTIAL FOR
AREAS OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING STORMS AND MODEST
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT MLCAPE TO AOB 2000 J/KG. STORMS
WILL REDEVELOP DURING THE DAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT AS WEAKLY
CAPPED WARM SECTOR DESTABILIZES. STRONGER BULK SHEAR WILL LIKELY
REMAIN IN POST FRONTAL REGION. HOWEVER…DEEP LAYER WIND PROFILES
WILL INCREASE AS THE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES SEWD WITH GENERALLY
30-35 KT BULK SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SOME ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES.
PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE DAMAGING WIND ASSOCIATED
WITH MULTICELL LINE SEGMENTS. HOWEVER…VERTICAL SHEAR MAY BECOME
SUFFICIENT FOR SOME SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE.