At midday, I am observing a shortwave trof rotating through the upper Midwest. The storms that have developed in association are primarily in northern Illinois and Northern Indiana. The trof extends down through St. Louis. I suspect that as this trof swings through during the afternoon heating, we will see storms popping up. Any individual storm may have the prospect of small hail or gusty winds. It is this shortwave trof that caused the SPC to extend the slight risk down to the Louisville Metro Area. At the time of this here posting…you will see a computer’s idea of the rain chances (top graphic) with the 40 plus pop extending down from the northeast, roughly the area that one would expect the trof to be moving through during the afternoon and evening.
Aside from the observation, which is pretty much what you have to do in these situations, the computers didn’t really give much to hang your hat on for today. But, Sunday the general consensus is for a much stronger shortwave to move through in the late day or evening. It seems more problematic. I wouldn’t expect tornadoes or anything like that but just know that the prospects for strong afternoon and nighttime t’storms will be elevated on Sunday. We’ll see if this materializes but its been pretty consistent over the past few days worth of model runs. Besides that, Matt Milosevich returned from nearly a week in Cabo and promptly declared Sunday as troublesome. I hope that it doesn’t materialize for two reasons. First, we don’t want to spoil Sunday activities. Second, and perhaps more important to all of mankind, Young Mr. Lincoln will be difficult to live with for several days.