The story is pretty much the same though there is a little more clarity. Morning dewpoints moved into the 60′s and will continue to climb somewhat. Temperatures Monday morning heated up and a short wave was moving toward the area. Models agree that it will move through the area in the mid afternoon. There is a second stronger shortwave (upper low) that will come through Monday late day or evening. There is a little descrepency in the track with some data suggesting that it moves to our north and some a little closer to us.
If you notice, the SPC doesn’t have an appreciably high risk anywhere in our region. This is due to the track of the shortwaves proceeding more from a westerly direction than southwest as they round over the flattening ridge. As they round over the ridge they would tend to weaken a bit. However, the second short is looking reasonably formidable and there will be a fair amount of energy available. I suspect this is why the boys at the SPC have continued the slight risk as previously outlined, with it sticking down just to our south.
Bottom line is scattered showers and thunderstorms on tap for Monday afternoon and then again in the evening. Initiation of strong storms is not a huge probability in our area but instead they would develop west of here and anything out of hand would be storms maintaining themselves as they move our way. In other words, we’d probably have to import trouble. The biggest and most wide spread storms will probably be to our west with the main concern being one or two that can hold together as they move our way and the primary threat would be gusty winds and small hail.
We’ll keep you updated. Don’t get too worked up but keep an eye on the weather as you proceed with your Memorial Day weather. Make sure you follow your safety precautions in the event of thunderstorms, particularly lightning. And make sure you take a moment to remember our fallen heroes who make days like this possible.