Preakness Day Forecast For Pimlico in Baltimore: Previous forecast is on track. The above map is from the Thursday evening run of the NAM and is valid for early afternoon Saturday. The other models are similar. If you are going to the track on Friday, it’s gonna suck. Rain and steady temps in the upper 50’s and lower 60’s. The system lifts up and out with rain tapering off my Friday night. Saturday will feature lots of sunshine. First race temps low 60’s; Preakness post temps upper 60’s to low 70’s. Condition of the track will be determined by the groundcrew. It will generally rain all day on Friday but Saturday’s sun will help. Snow White not only says the big brown horse will win this one, she says its a triple crown sure-thing.
Forecast around here still pretty much in line. Light rain in the area early Friday; clouds breaking early afternoon. Highs in mid 60’s. Saturday still not a bad day but the clouds will increase late. Shower chances increase late in the day into the night as a weak boundary approaches. It moves through by early Sunday and leaves us with a decent Sunday with highs in and around 70. Big warm up is in the cards for next week as a ridge of high pressure is indicated to nose it’s way our way. The models were a bit split on this solution earlier in the week but most of the data seems to be pointing that way.
On This Date In History:On May 16, 1868 President Andrew Johnson escaped removal from office. He been impeached for violating a law that has largely been determined by Constitutional historians to be Unconstitutional. But, on this date the Senate acquitted him by one vote. If you don’t know about the basics of the case, including the infamous Tenure of Office Act, you can check it out here at Johnson Impeachment. What I want to talk about is something that probably doesn’t show up in too many texts.
Republican Edmund Gibson Ross was appointed as Senator from Kansas following the death of Republican Senator James H. Lane. Lane had shot himself to death due to criticism against him for supporting Democrat President Johnson. Ross had served as a loyal Republican since 1856 and had consistently voted against the Johnson agenda. But when impeachment came around, he promised that the President would get a fair trial. All of the Senators had made up their minds except for Ross, which made him the deciding vote. He vowed to vote his conscience, knowing that he had hundreds of telegrams from home demanding coviction. He also figured that if he voted to acquit, His political career would be over. After he went along with six other Republicans and voted not guilty, he and the other 6 were not brought back for another term. Worse for Ross was that a Kansas Supreme Court Judge sent a telegram that said, “Unfortunately, the rope with which Judas hung himself is mislaid, bu the pistol which Jim Lane killed himself is at your service.”
Yup….I’d say that pretty much means your political career is done. Oh…he became a Democrat and tried to run for Governor but was trounced badly. So badly, in fact, that he moved to the New Mexico Territory.. Democrat President Grover Cleveland lent a hand by giving him a job. He appointed him territorial governor! But he remained shunned in his home state until he received a message from the state of Kansas in appreciation for his conscientious efforts during the impeachment trial of Andrew Johnson. That message came just days before his death. It reminds me of the baseball writers who hated Leo Durocher so much that they didn’t vote him into the Hall of Fame until the year after he died. If Pete Rose ever goes in, I bet that’s how it will be.
Anyway, this is another example of how impeachment is not a criminal trial, but instead is a political tool. It was designed that way. In both of our impeachments of our presidents (Clinton and Johnson), politics played a role in the impeachment proceedings and also in the subsequent acquittal. So, if you hear someone say “the impeachment was all about politics…” then you can say, “yes, absolutely, exactly as it was meant to be.”
I’m hoping for a slop track so Big Brown can get beat. I’m trying to put together two longshots in my last 2 game. Anyone playing it for the Preakness?
http://www.last2left.com/whatsinplay/preakness-horse-race-2008
Jim, I just did a quick look-see at the early Friday model runs and the two I looked at both have the rain out of there before 8 AM. At Churchill Downs, there was well over an inch of rain the day before Derby Day, which will probably be a good estimate for what they will get today at Pimlico, and the track was in very good shape for Derby Day. I’m not much of a horse-racing guy but I would think that if they had it up and running at Churchill, the folks at Pimlico would do a similar job there, though the drainage situation may be different. You probably know better than me. As for the betting, I know a bunch of people who are into the betting scene and I haven’t heard a single one who is attempting your strategy. But I used to deal blackjack in college and my saying was “bet big win big” so maybe the contrarian strategy will work for you. I don’t think you can make much money betting strictly on the favorite though,in this case. I’ll try to keep you up to date on the weather but the data has been very consistent so I don’t anticipate anything to come up differently. The track conditions will be dependent on the human factor and the integrity of the drainage structure at the track.