High pressure has moved in. Lots of sunshine and that will carry into Tuesday. Don’t be surprised if you push toward 80 on Tuesday afternoon. We get a front Wednesday with rain and t’storms. The front gets hung up to our south and little disturbances come up along it, giving over-running rain and maybe elevated storms. Thursday, maybe carrying over to Friday. Probably a break on Saturday and then a another rain shot on Sunday with another front. In other words, enjoy today and tomorrow. When it’s not raining at a given time after Tuesday, it will be cooler than seasonal averages. Snow White and I will be seen biking about.
On This Date In History: I can’t find much. Pretty boring. Florence Nightingale was born on this date in 1820. There are three people with the same birtdate in 1950. Billy Squier is one of them. If you’re wondering who is Billy Squier, I say, exactly. You’re not alone.
So What about the Myanmar or Burmese Cyclone and Mr. Gore’s claim its due to global warming?
To be very honest, It’s been very difficult to find just a straight story on what Mr. Gore said. Most have greatly opinionated the subject from the very opening comment. Well, I”ve chosen three links for you. One is from Newsweek and is a back and forth with a Meteorologist regarding the Cyclone. The the other is from mediamatters, which is defending Mr. Gore’s statements and claiming that they are all true. And the third is a piece with a different tilt than media matters.
Here’e the deal. Mr. Gore continues to claim that there is an increasing number of category 5 hurricanes. That we are going into a what has been seen by hurricane experts for years to be an increased cycle of hurricanes goes unmentioned. On that mark, there were a number of very intense storms in the 1910 to 1940. Florida just got ripped across so badly that in caused a very big economic depression down there as land prices tanked and speculators took a bath. Then it was quiet, then it was active, then it was quiet from the early 1970′s until the late 1990′s. Remember Andrew in late August 1992 was the first hurricane of the season. I don’t think there were many more after that. Now, the theory is that we are moving through the first stage of a 30 year period of more intense and more numerous hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin. It was not related to global warming. Here is a link to the most intense storms in US history. You will find some recent ones but a whole bunch from other times. Eight of the top 30 fall between 1910 and 1940. 21 of the top 30 were prior to 1965. Here’s the link.
Hundreds of thousands have died in Bangladesh and Pakistand and India from cyclones, often with one single storm. The largest storm death is something like 500,000 in Bangladesh in 1970 and that was a category 3 storm. Was that Global Warming? They didn’t think so then…instead they blamed in their own fault for not warning the people and they installed a much better warning system and communications system so the people know and have time to prepare or move out.
The truth is that this cyclone, or hurricane as we call it, had winds of what I had heard was 120 mph and what this guy says “up to” 150 mph which tells me it was probably sustained 120 and gusts to 150. That is not a huge hurricane. Katrina was not a category 5 hurricane. New Orleans did not get hit by a hurricane, Mississippi did. In both cases, there was a storm surge in a heavily populated area where the land is just barely above sea level. In the case of New Orleans there were levees and relatively sturdy housing. In the delta of the river in Myanmar, there was not sturdy housing, there was no levee system and the natural barrier of vegitation and such that could have helped had been taken out on purpose by the government.
Hurricanes serve a purpose. It is to transport heat and moisture from the tropical regions to the polar regions. There have been strong storms for a long time. The most recent that have caused death and destruction were strong but not too unprecedented or even close to historic. The death and destruction was caused more by the activity and living patterns of humans. What I just said is way way more supportable than Mr. Gore’s contention. This storm, the one in China last year (notice in the article Gore only said it was the strongest in 50 years..not the strongest ever and he did not give the winds or category) or Katrina, were storms that hit the wrong place. If the storm in China was the strongest in 50 years, was the one 50 years ago caused by something other than natural causes? Who’s to blame for that one? Katrina was a Category 3 hurricane at landfall with a huge storm surge(over 30 feet in MS) more associated with a category 5 hurricane exasperated by the geographic make up of that part of the Gulf of Mexico. The storm surge in Burma was about 15 feet but went many miles inland. The area is a swamp and barely above sea level. The governement or anyone didn’t tell them that they were in danger. The information was there. The communications system is not what it is in the US. The people drowned. End of story.
If you are looking for support for global warming, you need to look elsewhere than hurricane data. It’s simply not there, unless you are trying to build a case for something that may earn you a lot of money.