These pictures are easier to see than yesterday’s but they say essentially the same thing. The moderate risk area was expanded today to parallel and just south of the Ohio River. It generally encompasses the entire viewing area but we remain on the fringe of the risk area.
Notice, the moderate risk area has a 45% probability as deemed by the SPC. That is less than 50/50.
The main energy and area where all of the ingredients come together is to our Northwest with the main area being the axis from Indy to Springfield, IL. There is also the remnant of a low coming off the Gulf to our south. One scenario that is possible is that there is big stuff to the north and stuff to the south that cuts off much of the energy in our area and we don’t get much.
While I think that is possible, it’s probably not wise to count on that. My best recommendation and analysis is consistent with previous observations. Recognize that we will probably get strong storms coming through on Thursday night. Our best timing outlook at this point is between 9pm and 3am. Yes, there is a tornado threat but given that the best dynamics are to our northwest, that is where the biggest hubbub should be. We will probably be looking at strong storms, maybe even a line of storms, with high winds. That can and does cause damage and can be dangerous. There will be a threat of isolated tornadoes. Primarily, when you get a line of storms, small, short lived tornadoes often pop up with little warning. Our VIPIR radar and Advanced Warning Doppler Network are both very very good at picking up these little items as they form. That is why I would suggest keeping tuned to Newschannel 32 to see exactly where these little critters might be.
To further toot our own horn, you can have all of the radars in the world but if you can’t interpret it properly, then its not worth much and can lead to over reaction or to dangerous non-chalance. I’ve been doing this for over 20 years and I can tell you the commercials you see are not bogus. Jay Cardosi is an Ace when it comes to severe weather and recognizing what is worthwhile and what is not. There is no one I’ve ever worked with who is better. When situations like this arise, Kim runs the radars and Matt is in constant communication with the NWS and the newsroom gathering all sorts of information. I will be on hand helping to operate the radars as well as assisting in the analysis. While Jay is concentrating on current activity, I am free to look at other developments and bring those situations to Jay’s attention or directly to you. It is truly a team effort.
Having said all of that…anticipate a potential round of strong storms. The biggest threat will be high winds. Isolated tornadoes will be possible. By no means is it a slam dunk that we get wiped off the map but there is a pretty decent threat of problematic conditions tomorrow evening.
One thing that may determine just how problematic could be the amount of sunshine we get. We’ll probably get some rain late Wednesday night and early Thursday morning. Presumably, we’d get some sun in the afternoon. But if we don’t, then that may be an inhibiting factor. Sun in the afternoon and activity moving in sooner rather than later would be the optimum situation.