The top picture is the overall risk for severe weather. The moderate risk encompasses the entire viewing area. The second map is the risk for tornadoes. We are on the edge of the 15% region. The lower map is the damaging wind risk outlook and we are just outside the 45% area.
In other words, nothing has changed much since Tuesday. We do have sunshine breaking out this early afternoon. That will tend to destabilize the atmosphere ahead of the cold front that will come through later tonight. I mentioned yesterday the possibility of storms to our south being so strong they would cut off much of the moisture and energy in the Ohio Valley. Midday, Pensacola had a bunch of big storms that produced a big tornado. North of that, there wasn’t much activity. However, to the west of the Florida Panhandle, activity along the coast and inland was much more scattered in nature. If these storms do not get more concentrated, then that would probably not cut off the moisture from the south, thus enhancing our prospects. Further, there is one computer model that has severe parameters in our area set pretty high across the board. However, other models are not so aggressive and it is still possible that the storms to our south will become more concentrated.
Note the risk for strong winds here from the Severe Storms Prediction Center is less than 45%. The risk for tornadoes and hail is 15%. It is still not a slam dunk for anyone. But, with the available wind energy as well as the parameters that may open up with the sunshine and potential moisture from the south, it is certainly possible any where in the area. Still calling for between 9pm and 3am, the early side for folks to the west and later time for people in the east.
Isolated super-cells are possible. It is a fair bet that it will all end with a line of storms. Super-cells do produce the large destructive tornadoes and a line of storms will often spin out little small, short lived tornadoes. Those are weaker but are more frequent and generally come about with less warning and are therefore considered by many to be more dangerous. As for tornadic activity, the spin ups along the line will be a chief concern but high winds associated with the storms will be the greatest risk. Hail has also been reported in these storms over the past few days.
Its probably a good idea this afternoon to pick up loose branches and sticks in the yard as well as putting away yard furniture and kids outdoor toys. Secure any loose items as flying debris often causes decent damage and can cause injury. Put cars in the garage or car port to protect from hail or other flying debris. Should tornadic weather develop in your neighborhood, make sure your family knows where to go for safety in your home. Its probably not a bad idea to have a drill or plan well before any severe weather so, if nothing else, this may be a good excuse to have a review.
Keep in mind when looking at the above maps, the SPC risk for anything is less than 50/50. However, its probably wise to heed precautions.
I won’t be able to update this again today as I will be busy in the weather center. WLKY.com will have all of the updates as far as any watches or warnings. You’ll find us on Newschannel 32 whenever there is any risk with updates and continuous converage as necessary.
