Here’s the deal. We’ve got warm, moist air in place. The upper low that has been to our northeast will lift up as a cold front dives our way. Its not a particularly strong front but, as discussed previously, this environment is loaded with potential energy and all that we need is an ignition source for the energy. The front will help to lift the air but also every model I have looked at suggests that there will also be a slight wave up upper energy progressing along the boundary as it moves through our area. Now the available energy is not quite as prevalent as last Thursday but I suspect the situation will end up similarly. A few severe thunderstorms will not be out of the question late in the day into the evening. Those prospects will be enhanced if the sun breaks out this afternoon to allow for additional heating. The above maps indicate the SPC’s outline of the area of the slight risk of severe thunderstorms. The top map is the probability of high winds with the highest probability being in the southwest and southern part of our viewing area, but really, any severe storm will raise that prospect. Secondarily, small hail will be possible. Don’t forget about lightning. I suspect there will be ample lightning strikes in any storm and lightning is one of the more dangerous aspects to storms, perhaps in part because we don’t get as alarmed about lightning as say, tornadoes. Speaking of twisters, this situation would not be overly conducive for tornadic activity but its not out of the question that a short-lived spin up might occur with a cell merger or along a bow echo. We’ll keep you up to date should anything develop and just take your precautions as necessary. It might be a good idea to put up any loose lawn furniture or the kids toys, just in case the wind picks up in your backyard.
One thing to keep in mind…if the clouds stick around its possible that would limit the instability sufficiently to keep a lid on the situation. So, this is not a slam dunk situation but is worthy of monitoring because of the potential.
