If you watch TV and see some graphic of a “slight risk” for severe weather over our area for Friday afternoon and night, here’s the deal. We will become much more warm and humid. The upper low we’ve been talking about wandering from east to west will lift up and out to the northeast in advance of a frontal boundary. The boys at the severe storm lab are concerned about the potential for little waves of energy scooting down along the boundary as it presses southeast. The idea is that if these guys do materialize they could blow up into storms in the Midwest and then migrate down our way. We will have a fair amount of energy to work with by then and we may become much more unstable so if one of these little trouble makers does come through in a timely manner, then there would be sufficient available energy to sustain some pretty good storms. Typically, the biggest risk in this type of environment would be small hail and pockets of high winds in individual t’storms. The tornado risk would be limited to small scale situations where a little, brief spin up occurs in a cell merger or perhaps on the edge of a bow echo. In other words, the set up could yield a similar circumstance as we had last week. Don’t get too alarmed though. If you notice, I used the word “if” several times. These little waves are tough to pick out and even tougher to time. Odds are they will be there but the exact timing and placement of those waves will determine where and if we get anything exciting. You know we’ll let you know. Watch our news and keep up on wlky.com and we’ll let you know how it shakes out.
On This Date In History: It wasn’t supposed to be able to happen. Modern ships. Modern communications. Modern radar. A huge Atlantic Ocean. Yet, two ships managed to run into one another on the high seas off the coast of Nantucket. At 11:10 pm the Swedish liner Stockholm and Italian Liner Adrea Doria collided in heavy fog. The Italians(over 1700 passengers) were coming from Europe to New York while the Swedes(just under 750 passengers) were headed home from the New World. The Stockholm was traveling a bit north of its recommended route in an effort to save time. Fog was thick. The Doria had a much more sophisticated radar and picked up the Stockholm at a distance of 17 miles. The Stockholm radar operator picked up the Doria at 12 miles. Like the Stockholm, the Doria was trying to keep its schedule and only slightly reduced speed in spite of the reduced visibility. So, both Captains seemed to have sacrificed safety in the name of speed.
Apparently, the normal procedure for ships passing was port to port. But for some reason, the Italian Captain decided to turn port and make an unconventional starboard to starboard passage. It is thought the Italian Captain thought that the Swede was doing the same thing. Why these guys didn’t get on the radio and talk about it is a mystery. Or maybe they did and there was a language barrier. Whatever the case, the two slammed into each other. The Stockholm had a reinforced, ice breaker bow and just sliced the Doria. The Stockholm sustained damage and a handful of crew members died. Nearly 50 passengers and crew died on the Doria as the ice-breaker bow cut into passenger quarters. One man watched in horror as his wife was dragged out of the Doria never to be seen again. But one story caught the attention of the press and forever dubbed 14 year-old Linda Morgan as the “the miracle girl.” Morgan was taken from her bunk on the Doria as the two ships separated. She was found on board the Stockholm. I do not think she was charged with being a stow away.
The Doria listed badly so only half of her lifeboats were available for evacuation. The Stockholm though lowered its boats and other liners in the area quickly answered the doomed Doria’s mayday call. It is the greatest maritime rescue in the annals of history with 1660 souls plucked from the sea.
Here is the Bob Symon/ Ward Cleaver moral to this story: You can have the most sophisticated top-shelf equipment and technology in the world. But if you’ve got a doofus operating that stuff, its worthless. Now the self-serving but honest plug: Remember that when choosing which channel to watch next time there is severe weather and you really want to know what is going on.
OK, I have a weather related question then. Actually a forecasting question would be the better term.
How far out and how accurately can you guys predict humidity levels?
My question is work related for me in the Fall of the year. I raise tobacco and the relative humidity needs to reach a minimum level of about 65% for tobacco to “come in order” or “go into case”.
These terms refer to the proper moisture content in the leaves that allow for optimum stripping conditions. It would sure make life easier for tobacco farmers if we could have a day or two notice of predicted levels. Makes planning stripping a little easier and allows a little time to lay on a crew. No need to have 3-4 workers on hand and the tobacco be as dry as parchment paper and unworkable. Just curious.
kyplowboy
I always wonder when people ask for the humidity. As you know its a ratio of the amount of moisture in the air vs. how much the moisture can hold at that temperature and saturation vapor pressure. People claim that in Houston the temperature is 90 and the humidity is 90%. Phooey. I don’t think there is any place on this planet that has such a ratio. 90 degrees and 55% is more like it. So when the temperature drops at night to near say, 75 and the dewpoint is 73, that is when you get 95% humidity. So, is humidity really your question or dewpoints? Dewpoints can be done early within reason. Humidity is a bit tougher because you are talking about ratios involving several variables. Remember, you can have 65% humidity when its 40 degrees but I don’t think that would help the tobacco, or would it? I don’t know much about tobacco farming except what it looks like. I used to live in North Carolina.
Let me add to that…I could tell you when it would be very dry or relatively humid. I’m thinking more and suspect you are looking for evaporation rates which would be higher behind a cold front with dry air than ahead of one. For instance, we knew several days out it would be very dry last weekend and knew that the humidity would return by late this week in advance of the next front. But the problem I have is that in the afternoon, on a warm summer day you will never have 65% humidity, but on a non-dry typical summer night the percentage would certainly climb to 65%. The moisture content of the air does not change, but the temperature does and therefor the ability of the air to hold water vapor decreases, hence the higher ratio.
Let me correct myself. I should have said “very rarely” do we get 90 degrees and 65% humidity. That is within the area of plausibility, but its tough to get, especially around here.
Yeah, 65% at 40 degrees would be fine, good actually, as it would stay in case longer at the cooler temperature. Even if it gets a little below freezing it is ok, as long as the tobacco has been housed long enough to loose the green in the leaves.
If tobacco is in the field, either cut or uncut, or has not been in the barn long enough to have lost most of the green in the leaves and a freeze hits, it is bad knews. The freeze doesn’t really hurt the tobacco quality per se, but what it does is burst the cell walls in the leaf containing chlorophyll and it locks that green color into the leaf. It will not cure out to the deep reddish-brown the buyers want. It will have a greenish tingue to it. They dock your price for that.
So, I take it then that the dewpoint can be at least roughly predicted several days out. And my understanding of it is, the closer the temp drops to meet the dewpoint (or even go below it, I assume) the higher the percentage of relative humidity. I can kinda work with that. Say the high today is 65 degrees and the low tonight is expected to be in the low 40′s with a dew point of 42, I am safe to assume that the humidity will be above my needed 65% to bring my tobacco in order. But if the over night lows are only in the low 50′s with a dewpoint of 42, it may be borderline or below what I need. May only produce say, 58% RH.
Actually, I think tobacco starts coming in order around 55% RH, but we try to get it down and bulk it on the barn floor at 65% because that is about the breaking point of 19-20% moisture content in the leaves. They will kick it back in rejection if the MC is over 21.4% I believe. The higher the MC, the more it weighs and the more we make. So we try to push the envelope.
Saw your other comments after I posted my last one. Yes, it is the evaporation rate that we need to watch more closely, I suppose. If tobacco is in order and the dew point say 60, and the temp is expected to be kind of stable throughout the morning hours, we will probably be able to take tobacco down most of the morning and bulk it in piles and cover it with plastic to keep it in order. But if the temp is expected to be 75-80 degrees by 9-10 o’clock, we will need to be getting it early on if we hope to get enough down to strip the next day or two.
Of course most tobacco around here is not even ready to strip until late September or early October. Once it is cut and housed, it has to wilt down and turn brown. From there it needs to go totally in and out of order (case) at least 7-8 times to be cured enough to strip. Usually 5-6 weeks after it is cut and housed.
I suspect that a temp in the low 50′s and a dewpoint of 42 would yield a higher than 65% humidity. If you ever have a question about it, give us a call. I can certainly give you a trend a few days out. As a rule of thumb, behind a front it will be dry. Prior to moisture will increase as there is typically a southerly component to the flow at least a day or so before the front arrives. Afterward, the cooler, drier air filters in.