Theres not much on my mind today….just isolated t’storms on a hot and humid summer afternoon…nothing too extraordinary. We have a front coming down for Thursday that will bring a good chance of rain that may carry over into Friday then leave us with much drier and somewhat cooler conditions for a great weekend heading into the Fourth of July. The rain at the end of the week may be the last we get for a while as we heat up next week.
So…how about the mailbag. I’ve got some housecleaning to do and came across this letter to me a few weeks ago from Carol S.
“I am looking for information on the summer weather forecast for our area. I was told this is suppose to be an unseasonally warm summer, with many days 90+. is this true and where can I go to get a print out of the information? Thank you
From my perspective, it appears the long wave pattern is setting up to put us in a rather hot pattern. But, having said that, we average 33 days of plus 90 temperatures in Louisville and we’ve had 9 so far but thats not all that much out of line for this period in the season. Last year, I believe we had exactly 33. Now not long ago, I recall we were in a long wave pattern that kept us cooler than average for 23 out of 24 months and those two summers I think I recall we had something like 9 90 days one year and 11 the next. So, when we returned to average last year, it seemed like it was really hot when in fact, the previous two summers had been cooler.
There are people who forecast long range for commodities and sometimes they do pretty well. But overall, in my opinion, I think we are stretching our human limitations when we try and predict weather months in advance. Take for example the hurricane forecast. The initial forecast for 2005 was way way below the actual number of 20 some odd named storms. In 2006 they jumped on the bandwagon from the previous year and they said we’d have a whole bunch more. Well, we had a higher than average number but not as many as predicted and many said they would hit the US…when we were barely scratched. Never even came close to the gloom and doom stories on national news and cable. One outfit went on TV and predicted dire straights for the East Coast. So…..take it with a grain of salt. As for temperatures, I’ve seen maps that say “higher than average” or “lower than average” but when you look at the numbers, it says a 55% chance of one way or another..that’s not exactly going out on a limb but they use verbiage that suggests otherwise. My guess is that with the pattern we are seeing…not based on any computer stuff…just my observation, I would think it’s a fair assumption to say we will be somewhat hotter than normal in terms of overall averages…but not necessarily record heat.
You can do a search and find stuff…if you want US forecasts, be sure to specify the United States in your search. Here’s a couple I found:
The one above claims there will be another dust bowl this year.
Here’s one that says we’re going to roast by 2080
Here’s the official one from the NWS Climate Prediction Center. Seems to contradict the Dust Bowl scenario in that it says that the US may be overall warmer than average, especially the Southwest. They do some double talk about the midwest in that it will be warmer but there will be ample soil moisture to help bring the temperatures more in line with long term climatology and there is an equal chance for below, normal, or above normal temperatures. Hmmm. It says there may be more than normal rain for the East and Gulf Coast for late summer and early fall due to more tropical activity. But that is not to be considered as hurricane strike probabilities. Hmmmm. Otherwise it calls for dry conditions in the Southeast. Note the use of the term “equal chance”…that means the data came back as 50%, methinks.
So, there you have it…clear as mud. If you think about it, it really doesn’t matter what the forecast says about the long term temperatures this summer because there is nothing anyone can do about it anyway, either way it shakes out. Remember Mark Twain: “Everyone talks about the weather but no one does anything about it.” As we have seen from our Dinka tribesman and the Chicago, Rock Island and Pacific Railroad, people have tried and now we have the school of thought that man has done something about the weather with anthropogenic global warming and some think something can be done to change that. I’ll let others argue about that while I stay focused on the next few days. We need rain and there is the Fourth of July coming up….and we still have polluted waterways that seems to be overlooked.
Thats alot for not having anything on my mind. Thanks for waking me from my slumber Carol and I hope this helps.
Keep your cards and letters coming.