A Real Problem May 14, 2007

I brought up the topic of “chemtrails” because it was brought up to me and I have yet to find any substanative evidence to support any claim. Global Warming has been in the front burner for some time yet there are many experts (more than the media has led you to believe) who dispute much of the “consensus” opinions. About 15 years ago, the topic was ozone depletion. A couple of laws were passed and suddenly that debate left the headlines, but has the problem or risk really gone away?

All of the above are fueled by speculation and some of that speculation may have very strong merit. But, in my view, we are whistling past the graveyard regarding an issue that is real and is affecting us right now.

If you walk down along the river near the Belle of Louisville, you will see a sign warning of the pollution of the river following a rainstorm. Apparently, a heavy rain causes an overflow of contaminated water up and down the river. Our news department tells me they have reported on the problem. You can find numerous reports of all sorts pollution into the river from raw sewage to other items as pointed out by the Local Government Environmental Assistance Network:

Solvent cleaners and paints, mercury switches and lamps, lubricants and other wastes from operations and facility maintenance activities.
Disinfection by-products, i.e. trihalomethanes.
Corrosion by-products.
Leaking or broken lead from service lines, goose neck or service connections.
Radon in wells.
Pesticides and herbicides rinse waters and containers.
Industrial, commercial and household chemical discharges.

http://www.lgean.org/html/p2-11.cfm

Here’s the deal. We know of these problems. Most people I know who fish laugh when you ask if they eat any fish taken from the Ohio River. Report after report confirms the pollution and where its coming from. Its not speculation that marine species are disappearing due to pollution in fresh water and oceanic ecosystems. That could affect the entire water cycle. It deserves more immediate attention and action than other more publicized “crises” and certainly more than merely posting a sign.

Some other time I’ll talk about the problem of a lack of water. Its a bigger problem than you think. Hydrologists know it and so do investors who are buying up water rights and investing in private efforts to create water resources.

On This Date In History In 1886, Louisville had its overall warmest Derby Day with an average high of 78 degrees. Note this was in the late 19th century and not the late 20th century. But I think derby goers dodged a bullit. In Ohio a big F4 tornado killed several people and caused extensive damage. 200 years earlier, Gabriel Farenheit was born. He went on and invented the mercury thermometer, but I’m not sure if he got rich from it. I betcha he’s one of those guys who did all of the work and someone else made the money. In 1804, Lewis and Clark left St. Louis on their famous expedition to the west coast. Thomas Jefferson had commissioned them to do so to explore the lands largely made up of the Louisiana Purchase. I guess ole Tom wanted to find out what he paid for. Louisvillians like to say Lewis and Clark began their expedition from here but in general, St. Louis usually gets the nod….just like Louisville was once known as the gateway to the west (as well as the graveyard of the west) until St. Louis took the title of gateway city and now they have an arch. We’re supposed to get a couple of new bridges soon.

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Lets Talk About Clouds May 11, 2007

I can tell that we need a little background about condensation and cloud formation if we want to get a handle on this contrail caper. Let’s begin with the definition of a contrail according to the National Audubon Society Field Guide to North American Weather:

“a straight, narrow line of ice crystal clouds produced by flying aircraft. Condensation trails(contrails) may occur in several short segments at various angles to each other, depending on flight paths.”

Contrails are really nothing but man-man cirrus clouds. Like cirrus clouds, contrails are found at high levels of the atmosphere, generally 25,000 to 35,000 feet in a nearly saturated environment where air temperatures are very cold…typically colder than 25 degrees below zero Farenheit. When an aircraft, jet or turbo prop, flies through such an environment, the engine exhaust emits not steam but water droplets. Those water droplets freeze into ice crystals. If the environment is very dry, however, evaporation or sublimation occurs and there is no cloud or trail formation. When a trail of clouds is formed, it will last as long as it is in a nearly saturated environment. If it is marginally saturated then the trail will disappear relatively rapidly. If it is nearly saturated, then it will last. This type of phenomena has been recorded and noted since the advent of higher altitude aviation, most prominently in high altitude bombing by the Allies in WWII with such aircraft as the B-17 Flying Fortress or the B-29 Superfortress. In both cases, long lasting contrails allowed the enemy to pinpoint the aviator’s location so contrails were not a bomber pilot’s friend.

A warming environment or one with dry air intrusion will cause the trail to dissipate through sublimation. A lowering of temperatures or one with moisture intrusion increases condensation and therefore more clouds, not less.

Again, the Aududon Society explains: “When the the air at the aircraft level is near saturation, a contrail may last a long time. When they start to become diffuse, contrails can spread to form a major cloud cover…The amount of air traffic over a region also strongly influences the occurrence of contrails. An increased number of contrails, together with portions of other stratiform clouds moving into an area, may indicate a local atmospheric change due to an advancing weather system.”

I thought about this when I was at the Bats’ game last night. I looked up and saw a jet with a contrail going east while another crossed the trail behind it going south. The trails made a T-formation. Above those two trails was another jet with a trail that lasted for maybe 15 seconds behind it. The environment in which it flew was way too dry to produce a lasting cloud while below, the cold atmosphere had more moisture. At about 2000 feet, there was a SW Airlines plane making a final approach to Standiford Field. There was no contrail. Its not cold enough to produce contrails at low levels and the atmosphere was nothing close to saturation necessary to form other cloud types.

Just remember, while sometimes the simplest explanation is the most reliable, more often the truth is not found on the surface but instead requires careful analysis and thought. Calling someone names does not make them wrong nor change the facts.

For more insight, see the following reputiable sources:

Holton, James R. An Introduction to Dynamic Meteorology. 2nd edition (London: Academic
Press Inc, 1979)
Battan, Louis J. Fundamentals of Meteorology. (Englewood, NJ: Prentice-Hall, 1979)
McIlveen, Robin. Basic Meteorology: A Physical Outline. (Berkshire, UK: Van Norstrand
Company Ltd., 1986).

This Date In History In 1864, JEB Stuart went down for the count and pretty much ended Robert E. Lee’s hopes of any recovery. 1976-Marcus Welby MD aired its last episode.,..if you believe the tabloids what followed was a tragic demise for Robert Young. James Brolin later hooked up with Barbara Streisand(not that I read the tabloids).

In 1970 a big ole tornado hit downtown Lubbock, TX. It was at the time the costliest tornado with $135 million in damage and it killed 26 people. I’m pretty sure it was the first one to hit large buildings and resulted in the demolition of a multi-story steel building due to a slight twisting of the superstructure. However, I cannot recall the source…I’m relying on my aging memory.

In 1934, a big ole dust storm swept the nation clouding the skies across the eastern US from Atlanta to Boston. This was in the depths of the dust bowl years and from this we learned better farming techniques so as to avoid a repeat performance. See, there are many many known problems facing us, not theorhetical possibilities. We dont need to invent problems. I think politically we are missing the boat. Water pollution is real and is rampant and yet no one does anything about it. It is not speculation or computer modeling that shows that the oceans and fresh water sources are indeed contaminated. That, in my view, is where our political resources should be going. There is also a problem with a lack of water in many locations where there are more people living than existing resources can support as well as areas where non-indigenous vegetation soaks up limited water resources. This is a far bigger problem for now and the future than most people recognize.

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Contrails or “Chemtrails:? May 9, 2007

The weather has been fabulous the last few days…so nice in fact I had my head in my own clouds and had neglected to post anything. And in fact, I had something to chat about…I shall share some of it with you today.

Over the weekend, I got a call from a gentleman asking me about the contrails outside. He began by telling me of research in New Mexico….before he could finish his sentence I interrupted, “oh, you’re talking about that guy from New Mexico” who makes all these claims about chemtrails. His response was “I didn’t say Chemtrails”. Well, thats exactly what he was talking about. He is not the first person to call me about such things.

From what I understand, the idea is that someone is spraying the atmosphere with harmful chemicals. I have yet to have a conspiracist tell me who these people are. They will not say its the government or the military or even a foreign entity. But, its someone. They claim that the evidence is visual, that the contrails we see in the sky are really chemicals being sprayed out. They say that real contrails disappear after 60 seconds and that these long lasting trails, that spread out widely are not normal and not like they used to be. They also claim the criss-crossing pattern is not normal air-traffic and offer more evidence.

I have yet to find any credible, substanative evidence to support any of the claims I’ve pointed out or others. On websites there are statistics cited and evidence presented yet there is nothing to go on but the author’s word. I do know that callers have never been able to answer a few questions, nor have I found the answers on a website. Here are four:

1) If this is the effect of something more than just routine aviation, who is doing this and why? (the answer I often get is “that’s for you to find out.)

2)If they are spraying Louisville, why do they do it at 25k to 35k feet? Upper level winds would take those particles in all liklihood to the Atlantic ocean. I offer that there is a reason why crop dusters fly at 30 feet off the plants and not 30,000 feet. (The counter to this is that the chemtrails are low level…. I took the bait last weekend and I’d estimate 25,000 feet)

3)If the conspirators are in this country, how do they prevent themselves from being affected by the spray of the general population.

4)If the trails are indeed sinister “chemtrails”, then the fact that the clouds remain visible means that the particles are indeed suspended at that height and are not descending.(the response typically is verfication that the person has no fundamental understanding of thermodynamics or even simple items such as condensation nuclei)

Now the pictures above are supposedly evidence. It is suggested that air traffic controllers do not allow aircraft to fly on the same plane at the same altitude. I am not certain of the veracity of that claim. In my mind, there is also no possible way to tell with the naked eye the varing levels of the trails from a singular point directly below. Nevertheless, this photo and others seem to show that the crossing trail is above the others. Typically, if you are skeptical of the claims you are called closed minded or riduculed as being part of the societal ostriches with your head in the sand.

Here’s the bottom line: The internet is extremely limited as a research tool. Teach your kids to go to the library and learn library skills. Just because someone makes a claim on the internet that a photo is one thing or a piece of prose is indeed “historical fact”, doesn’t mean its true. Verify the facts with credible sources! I had claims also made to me that the 16th Amendment was fraudulently passed so the income tax is unlawful, that the IRS is headquartered in Puerto Rico and that the Federal Reserve is a fraud, illegal and unconstitutional. Certain aspects of the claims were valid….just enough to make someone think everything stated was true when in fact, the totality of the evidence suggests otherwise.

Its the old adage….don’t believe everything you read! Especially on the internet….which means you should read my work with a skeptics eye. However, I challenge you to offer a different viewpoint or point out errors..in fact I encourage it. The internet is a great place to exchange ideas but its a lousy place to hang your hat on.

Feel free to do a search on chemtrails and find out what is out there on the world wide web. Many of the sites you will find mention Art Bell. Find out of there is any real academic support for this. See what you think. Here is a link from one of the main proponents….from New Mexico.

http://www.carnicom.com/contrails.htm

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Derby Day or Cinco de Mayo? May 5, 2007

For us today is Derby Day and yesterday was Oaks Day. For Mexico, and for many parts of this country, yesterday was Quatro de Mayo and today is Cinco de Mayo. ..that would be May 4th and May 5th in Spanish. Derby Day is marked by partying, tradition, celebration and spectacle. One of those new traditions will be for TV stations, at some time during their coverage, to play show some montage of horses running (usually in slow motion) with Dan Fogelberg’s Run For The Roses in the background. Never mind that its been done for 20 years and shows absolutely no creativity, it is done regularly. But lets give the music choosers a break and call it a tradition. In that regard, it is my duty to provide the lyrics of Mr. Fogelberg’s song as I’ve noticed over the years its one of those songs that people say “oh…I love this song” then they sing along loudly to “and its run for the roses, as fast as you can” and then they follow that up with a fading “da, da, du, du….” because they don’t know the rest of the lyrics. My mom was always good at that with Man From La Mancha and 76 Trombones. Therefore I always thought that the words to 76 Trombones was “76 Trombones led the big parade….a dumda da dum dum da da dum….” So here’s the link:

http://www.sing365.com/music/lyric.nsf/Run-For-The-Roses-lyrics-Dan-Fogelberg/038794174DC4B43D48256AAB0022E654

Actually, I loved his music and he has been battling prostate cancer. Here is a link an important message from Mr. Fogelberg:

hhttp://www.danfogelberg.com/news.html

As For Today In History I already told you it’s Cinco de Mayo. The aspects outlined about Derby Day are very similar to Cinco de Mayo except you probably won’t hear Dan Fogelberg on Cinco de Mayo. But you are likely to hear a bunch of politics and its not like the politics of “celebrities” whom I’ve never heard of fighting for camera time that you find at the Derby. No, it has to do with immigration reform and Mexican-American relations, all of which I will let you explore on your own. HOWEVER….I do have a link to a site that claims it is the “history” of Cinco de Mayo. I suggest it is an example of how one can put a few facts in a bunch of opinion in an attempt to try and shape public policy and public perceptions in this country. I will let you read for yourself but I challenge any one to provide a good substantive, academic argument that supports the idea that 4000 Mexicans fighting the Maximillian’s French Army near Mexico City in 1862 allowed for the defeat of Robert E. Lee at Gettysburg. That is a claim in this “history” of Cinco de Mayo. It goes on to suggest several other things that you may or may not find….uh….interesting….and may find as evidence that just because something is called “history” does not mean that it qualifies.

Happy reading…and happy Cinco de Mayo…oh, yes..and Derby Day too.

http://www.vivacincodemayo.org/history.htm

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A Little Wet on the Infield May 4, 2007

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Oaks Day is upon us and I suppose we should have expected to the frontal boundary to remain in the area as Louisville is the place to be. Because the boundary will be lurking, it will be the focus of shower activity. Little pieces of energy will be breaking off big systems out west and wander along the boundary. In between, it doesn’t rain. That is why its off and on. Still nothing to suggest severe weather for Oaks Day, though rain may be a decent bet late Friday afternoon. Perhaps much of the general activity may hold off until after the last race. Now, Saturday the front lifts up somewhat so that would suggest warmer and more humid conditions and that may pop up scattered activity that would lend itself to a better opportunity for t’storms. Then, wouldn’t you know it…high pressure builds in from the Northeast on Sunday shoving this mess south and leaving us with great conditions for Sunday….then we really warm up again by midweek.

I still really wonder about how many people head out to the track for the races and how many just for the big party fun atmosphere. It also seems to me that in the past the celebrities were folks like Sinatra and John Wayne. Now, the paper lists Mr. Birkhead as a “celebrity” to look for along with Kid Rock and soap opera people I’ve never heard of. Maybe thats it….I’m just a stick in the mud ostrich with his entertainment head in the sand…or perhaps my 13 year old is right and I’m an old man who has let the world pass him by. But honestly, most of these “celebrities” I have never heard of before and it seems they are using us for a publicity boost. Now…Bo Derek and Raquel Welch…they count…they are American icons!! This year does however have one of the biggest celebreties in the world…no not Steve Burgin…Queen Elizabeth. I shall endeavor to be on my best behaviour.

This Date In History May 4, 1776 the colony of Rhode Island, which had been formed by hard core Puritans from the Massachusettes Bay Colony, became the first colony to declare independence. Then in late May 1790, Rhode Island became the last colony to ratify the Constitution. Guess the Puritans liked to get attention. In 1970, National Guard troops fired live ammunition on student protestors at Kent State and killed 4 students. I think a good argument can be made that this event probably illustrated the depths of the divisions in the country at that time, particularly on college campuses. We are in the midst of another unpopular military action, particularly on college campuses. So, where are the protests? That can be answered with two words: No Draft.

Moe Howard died on this day in 1975. He was the seeming leader of the Three Stooges. Curly and Shemp were also his real life brothers. Larry’s last name was Fine. What is amazing is that the stooges made 190 short films and at least 20 full legnth movies. Individually they also appeared in other stuff. I know that Shemp shoes up in The Bank Dick with WC Fields. If I recall, Shemp is the bartender.

Have a great Oaks and Derby Day.

Odds For Derby Week Decreasing May 1, 2007

If you watched this past Sunday, I had a graphic that said we would stay dry as long as a front coming through Tuesday night stayed south. On this hear blog, I said the same thing yesterday and mentioned a “little wrinkle”. Well, it now appears that the front will not come until Wednesday, which means it doesnt have as much push behind it….hence, it is less likely to move too far south. In fact, to a large degree, while the front at the surface will be south of us, aloft it will be right over us and that is where one would expect the focus for activity to be found. So, while the temperatures will be brought down to seasonal levels, rain chances will be fairly healthy for the end of the week. There is some indication that by the weekend, the frontal boundary washes out and Derby Day is salvaged. At this point, there is no indication of much of a severe threat as there are no real strong upper disturbances wandering along the front.

Remember when we got so warm in late March and early early April? Then a strong front brought strong storms April 3 and we went in into the temperature basement. The plants got fooled and their flowers fell off as we had hard freezes for 5 days and afternoon highs about 25 degrees below average. According to the USDA, 30% of the Indiana winter wheat crop is poor or very poor and Kentucky’s is a whopping 80%! Kentucky’s corn crop was 39% poor or worse and 66% of the strawberry crop was in similar shape. I’m hoping my hydrangia fairs much better…I tried so hard to keep him warm. So far he has responded quite well.

May Day You know that is a distress call. I wonder if that was invented by the Puritans. See, May Day was originally a festival celebrating fertility. It was early spring and marked the renewal of nature and was associated with the Roman goddess of Flora. In England during medieval times, they went and got a “maypole” from the woods and the celebrations and activities anticipating summer centered around it. Meanwhile, in the woods, folks went and fooled around in a “temporary” fashion. Well, the puritan church didnt approve of that stuff too much and given that early America was influenced greatly by the Puritans, May Day never really took off in this country. Europe still still treats it as something akin to Valentines Day and in Communist countries, it was always a day of parades, usually touting the Communist party(the only party in town) and the military might of the nation. I wonder if the folks who are using the day to protest immigration reform today understand the ties of the day to Communism….or if anyone else does or if the public is so unaware of any of this that no connection is made by anyone.

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